2008 Senate Matchups: Minnesota

[Adlai Stevenson]

The site of the 2008 Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul, Minnesota statewide also sees a highly competetive Senate race.  Senator Norm Coleman, a Republican narrowly elected in 2002, faces Democratic comedian, author and President of Air America, a nationwide left-wing broadcaster, Al Franken.

Having faced stiff competetion in the DFL primary, Franken defeats former state Attorney General Mike Hatch and attorney Ford Bell in a surprising upset. Derided by his primary opponents and inexperienced, Franken comes out swinging against Coleman calling him 'incompetent' and a 'conservative wolf in sheep's clothing'.  Despite this, the GOP Senator styles himself a moderate. The central issue of the campaign appears to be the Iraq War.  Franken sharply criticises Coleman for failing to stand-up to George W. Bush and for being humiliated by British MP George Galloway.  Coleman insists he did stand-up to Bush and calls attention to himself as an independent. 

Franken is seen by some as a lightweight, however, he energises the grassroots in a close race.  With presidential polls showing Minnesota leaning toward the Democratic column, the Senate race is tight.  Coleman begins with a 45%-36% lead but by October Franken leads 48%-47%.  The NRSC makes defence of the seat a top priority, with pivotal ads highlighting Franken's lack of governmental experience.  Franken, however, stumps alongside Bill Clinton, Amy Klobuchar and Mike Hatch.  Going into November, the race is rated a pure toss-up.

[Adlai Stevenson]

2002 was a different though, the most recent GOP equivalent of a 2006.  I think Franken would barely beat Coleman, something in the region of:

MINNESOTA SENATE
Franken (D) 49%
Coleman (R) 48%
Fitzgerald (I) 2%

[Adlai Stevenson]

The national vote was slightly more GOP in 2002, 2004 was almost dead even.  If the Colorado Senate race between Salazar and Coors had taken place in 2002 - Coors would have won, for example.