PPP: NE-2: trump +3

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example. 

Swings aren’t uniform. Take the polls which have Biden up nationally/tied/ahead in rust belt states