Election 2024 [Scenario]: Margins Levels (user search)
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  Election 2024 [Scenario]: Margins Levels (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2024 [Scenario]: Margins Levels  (Read 297 times)
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,569
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

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« on: February 06, 2024, 02:05:38 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on February 06, 2024, 01:25:20 PM
Yeah this just seems like applying a 5-7 point rightwards shift to every US state; swings are never that consistent across the board. In 2020 for instance, we had a state that swung 9 points left and a state that swung 3 points right, and even that was a historically narrow range.
Also averages (with the exception of RCP sometimes, which we should be wary to trust) have this at R+1-2, not R+3
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