Election 2024 [Scenario]: Margins Levels

[DS0816]

A recent topic addressed margins, for particular states, for Election 2024.

Effective February 6, 2024: I am thinking the outcome may turn out to be a Republican pickup for U.S. President—with a re-elected Donald Trump (non-consecutive cycles)—with a U.S. Popular Vote of R+3. This would come with 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes. Pickups: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada.

The above map are dealing with “Margins Levels”—with both major political parties—with the following color-coding:

• Dark: +15.00 percentage points (or above)
• Medium Dark: +10.00 to +14.99 percentage points
• Medium Light: +5.00 to +9.99 percentage points
• Light: +0.00 to +4.99 percentage points


I am not claiming to be able to nail down all of this. (I used a number of one-point increments in percentage points from one state followed by the next as an estimate for where each may rank for a carried party.) But, I think anyone with the interest and the patience can also come through with some estimates. (At this early enough point, there is no stress to get it right. I may end up tweaking some numbers at a later point.)


For consideration:


🔵 DEMOCRATIC [BIDEN] 🔵

| Electoral Votes: 118 |
— District of Columbia
01 to 04 [No Specific Order]. Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland (all +20 percentage points or above)
— Maine’s 1st Congressional District +19.5
05. California +18
06. New York +17
07. Rhode Island +16
08. Connecticut +15

| Electoral Votes: 55 (Cumulative: 173) |
09. Delaware +14
10. Washington +13
11. New Jersey +11 or +12
12. Illinois +10 or +11

| Electoral Votes: 18 (Cumulative: 191) |
13. Oregon +9
14. Colorado +5 to +7

| Electoral Votes: 35 (Cumulative: 226) |
15. Virginia +4
— Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District +3.25 to +3.75
16. Maine [state] +3
17. New Mexico +2
18. Minnesota +1
19. New Hampshire +0.xx


🔴 REPUBLICAN [TRUMP] 🔴

| Electoral Votes: 149 |
— Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District (over +50 percentage points)
01 and 02. Wyoming and West Virginia (each over +40 percentage points)
03 to 11 [No Specific Order]. North Dakota, Oklahoma, Idaho, Arkansas, South Dakota, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Utah (all in the range of +25.00 to +39.99 percentage points)
12 to 17 [No Specific Order]. Nebraska’s 1st Congessional District, Nebraska [State], Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana (range of +20.00 to +24.99 percentage points)
18. Kansas +19
19. South Carolina +18
20. Alaska +17
21. Iowa +16
—Maine’s 2nd Congressional District +15.5
22. Ohio +15

| Electoral Votes: 70 (Cumulative: 219) |
23. Florida +12 or +13
24. Texas +10 or +11

| Electoral Votes: 72 (Cumulative: 291) |
25. North Carolina +9
*26. Georgia +8
*27. Arizona +7
*28. Wisconsin +6
*29. Pennsylvania +5

| Electoral Votes: 21 (Cumulative: 312) |
*30. Michigan +4
[U.S. Popular Vote: +3]
*31. Nevada +0.xx to +2.99



* Pickup for Election 2024

[seskoog]

You honestly think all 50 states move right from 2020? Not going to happen, as that hasn’t happened since 1976

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah this just seems like applying a 5-7 point rightwards shift to every US state; swings are never that consistent across the board. In 2020 for instance, we had a state that swung 9 points left and a state that swung 3 points right, and even that was a historically narrow range.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Yeah this just seems like applying a 5-7 point rightwards shift to every US state; swings are never that consistent across the board. In 2020 for instance, we had a state that swung 9 points left and a state that swung 3 points right, and even that was a historically narrow range.

Also averages (with the exception of RCP sometimes, which we should be wary to trust) have this at R+1-2, not R+3

[DS0816]

You honestly think all 50 states move right from 2020? Not going to happen, as that hasn’t happened since 1976

I think that more than 40 states definitely will generally shift in the direction of Republican.

I am open to possibly all 50 states.

I am not too concerned about that being exact.

I will welcome anyone to list which states will generally shift in the direction of Democratic.

[DS0816]

Yeah this just seems like applying a 5-7 point rightwards shift to every US state; swings are never that consistent across the board. In 2020 for instance, we had a state that swung 9 points left and a state that swung 3 points right, and even that was a historically narrow range.

Not exactly everything that I posted.

To go from –4 (whole-number estimate) to +3 would be a 7-point national shift.

Obviously, the necessary numbers will get reached.

Some of what I am thinking goes notably beyond applying a “5–7 point” shift—especially with examples like California and Florida.

[DS0816]

Yeah this just seems like applying a 5-7 point rightwards shift to every US state; swings are never that consistent across the board. In 2020 for instance, we had a state that swung 9 points left and a state that swung 3 points right, and even that was a historically narrow range.

Also averages (with the exception of RCP sometimes, which we should be wary to trust) have this at R+1-2, not R+3

Right now, I think a minimum of 31 states will carry.

A Republican winning 31 states will pretty much prevail nationally by +3.