Most likely Clinton-Biden-Trump county?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Maybe Culberson, TX. Very small and only Biden +3 (compared to Clinton +23), so any further movement with Rio Grande Hispanics could flip the county, although I'm not sure whether that movement will occur.

Muskegon, MI was Clinton +2 and Biden +1; it went from voting left of the state to voting to the right of the state. Assuming that Biden can't expand his margin in MI by much in 2024 (if he's able to win it at all), Muskegon probably goes for Trump.

Other counties that Biden only won very narrowly, and by a smaller margin than Clinton:

• Stanislaus, CA
• Baldwin, GA
• Jasper, SC
• Pasquotank, NC
• Jackson, IL

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I've expressed doubt in Muskegon moving any further before, and I stand by my prediction of that, but I do think if there's any D->R county flip that isn't small rural RGV or depopulating southern black, it would be that.

Stanislaus, by the way, will not flip. It appears to be totally immune to both trends and the national environment.
Scott (Iowa) won't flip either, it's hit the "trend turning point" that has happened in some states like Missouri and Pennsylvania. They are "Trumpist burned-over districts" where there are literally no voters left for Republicans to gain while D trends in suburbs continue.

I certainly don't think it's particularly likely, per se, but I also wouldn't be so confident about a Biden +0.8 county that has exhibited no leftward trajectory; it has only moved slightly rightward over the last few presidential cycles, actually.