Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Well, Ossoff retweeted his tweet so I guess he's fine with his endorsement.

Sanders would definitely have lost Georgia if he was the nominee and probably the entire election as well.

And Sanders' endorsement to Ossoff and Warnock will likely reinforce the warning that if the Dems take the Senate, Bernie Sanders would be in line to become Chairman of the Senate Committee on Budget, which means a vote for Ossoff and Warnock is a vote for a socialist takeover of the budget, for much more deficit, for out of control spending, of trillions of dollars of new taxes.

Oh no, we wouldn't want a Democratic trifecta to squander the surplus that the 2017-2019 Republican trifecta built up!

Oh wait, the Republican trifecta actually dramatically increased the deficit. Never mind.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

My partner and daughter have been last-minute phone banking and have, combined, spoken to three Ossoff/Loeffler voters. One did so because he wants "younger leaders" and "doesn't vote for old people anymore." The other two did not specify.

Ah yes, the crucial 1-year age difference between Warnock and Loeffler finally getting the attention it deserves.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Betting markets have shifted slightly back to Ossoff

ElectionBettingOdds.com

Ossoff 51.1%
Perdue 48.8%

Warnock 61.5%
Loeffler 38.4%

Does this predict certainty or margin?

Betting markets are often incredibly off the mark, but not enough to predict Warnock getting over 60% of the vote.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Sterling expects turnout to be less than 1 million today:

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1346559270406520834?s=21

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1346562571294420992

So, really nothing to learn from his comments.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

NBC/CNN have no college degree now at 63%, college degree at 37%. It was 64% a little bit ago.

Is that a good or bad sign?

63% of the electorate is a group that’s decisively Republican (which is a reversal from traditional trends)

Non-college educated voters in Georgia were only Trump +9 in November.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Needle says 51% Warnock and 52% Ossoff win chances. Might as well stop the counting now!

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Dems better hope there's a single black precinct outstanding in Webster. 91% of it's Nov total and it swung 4 points to Rs.

It's also one very small county that is not necessarily indicative of statewide results.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

To those dooming about Webster County: Loeffler and Perdue are underperforming their November numbers in the other three counties that have fully reported (according to NYT) so far.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

It seems in many of these rural counties Loeffler and Perdue are running just behind Trump, or perhaps even, though with slightly lower turnout.

Some of them the turnout is down more than just slightly... I saw one where turnout was down like 20-25%.

Kornacki said that turnout in Franklin County was down 23%.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Chatham County (Savannah) is only at 1% on CNN.  Is Savannah the largest city in Georgia outside the Atlanta area?

Augusta, Columbus, and Macon are all larger.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

What is the most populous county?  Is it DeKalb (29% reporting on CNN)?

Fulton (1.04m) is the most populous, followed by Gwinnett (915k) and then Cobb and DeKalb (~750k each).

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

Do I think Ossoff will net 20k votes when there are 40k outstanding votes in DeKalb, 50k in Fulton, 15k in Newton, 10k in Henry, and 5k in Chatham? Most of which are mail-in votes that should heavily skew left? Yes.