The why Elizabeth Dole is an awful pol thread

[MarkWarner08]

Q2 fundraising:

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): $2.7M CoH
Mark Kirk (R-inc): $2.85M CoH

Population of North Carolina (2000 estimate): 8,049,313
Population of Illinois' 10th Congressional District (2000 estimate): 653,647


While Kirk is a prodigious fundraiser, he shouldn't have more money on hand than an incumbent Senator in heated reelection campaign. Dole has just over half the CoH of John Sununu, who occupies a much smaller state than North Carolina.


Some savvy politicos may remember that near the end of her dismal run as head of the NRSC, Dole decided Michigan was a pickup opportunity. This was two months after the NRSC pulled out of Montana, only to make a half-hearted ad buy, which they terminated right before the race tightened the final weeks. Dole's NRSC expended $1 million in MI and cut off funds for MT.


Michigan (upset-central according to Dole):
Stabenow (D-inc.)2,151,278 (56.91%)    
Bouchard (R)       1,559,597 (41.26%)

Montana (a lost cause according to Dole):
Tester (D)        199,795 (49.16%)    
Burns  (R-inc.) 196,283 (48.29%)


Dole was out-raised by Schumer, out-strategized in the final weeks of the '06 campaign, and now she's been out-raised by a lowly Congressman!

The most amusing part of this is that she'll probably win again by 52%-54%, the standard GOP margins in NC Senate races.

[MarkWarner08]

I don't think I'd jump from the same conclusion due to one CoH comparison to an Illinois Representative.  Also remember that Senator Dole has already been running ads to prop up her ailing approval ratings, so she has already had a major campaign expense.

Don't ruin my fun.

[MarkWarner08]

So, you expect her to throw away NC somehow?  Highly unlikely.

Note that this doesn't mean I disagree with a lot of what you say.

No. I expect her to win by 52%-54%, like every other North Carolina Senator over the past quarter of a century.