Will Kerry's Endorsement Help Or Hurt Obama?

[MarkWarner08]

Help. Kerry will bring establishment support, a greater donor list, an organization, and a signal to rank and file Democrats that Obama is an acceptable choice. While most Indys and Republicans will scoff at this endorsement, blue collar and base Democrats, many of whom have been generally skeptical of Obama, will begin to drift over to the Illinois Senator's side.

This is definitely a strong "get" for Obama.

[MarkWarner08]

Why would blue collar Democrats swing to a particular candidate due to someone who they never liked endorsing that candidate?

The Democratic base voters tend to support the more familiar, establishment pick over the insurgent. That's why Mondale triumphed over Hart. Kerry's primary supporters were largely lunch-pail Democrats, the very kind of voter Obama needs to win in order to clinch the nomination. Kerry's endorsements send a subtly message to these voters that Obama is "one of us." If Obama can pick away at this part of Hillbot 3000's base, Obama will stand a better shot of winning on Feb. 5th.

[MarkWarner08]

Kerry's primary supporters were largely lunch-pail Democrats,

Nonsense. Kerry's primary supporters were largely those Democrats who didn't like the other candidates. Look at the maps on this site; it's quite obvious when thee realises what's going on.

And as November showed, Kerry had very little real appeal to working class voters, Democrats included.

Look at the NH map. He won blue-collar areas. Obama strongholds overlapped with those of Howard Dean. A similar dynamic occurred in Iowa, too.

[MarkWarner08]

He won blue-collar areas.

Of course. But by default and obviously so.

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Not to the extent that a quick look would suggest.

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Not really.

Exit polls from both races showed similar demographic support for each candidates. Their regional support bases were also quite similar.You can't dispute that Obama and Dean won over the  same base of affluent, well-educated voters.  That, not the a few county-by-county differences, is the important point from New Hampshire

Read this article if you'd like to learn more about this topic. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22575721/

[MarkWarner08]

I don't think it will do much of either. Kerry is irrelevant.

^^^^^^^^

Maybe a little to donor lists, but who knows.

Donor lists will surely help. What's laughable is Kerry's claim that his endorsement will help in SC. We all remember how well JFK did in the Palmetto State in 2004...

[MarkWarner08]

I'm kind of confused why they didn't have him endorse before NH. He won the primary there in a landslide in '04 and actually carried it in the general election (unlike Gore).

In a two point race, he likely would have made a difference.

[MarkWarner08]

It certainly can't hurt. I don't expect it to help much, either; endorsements generally don't.

If you hadn't inserted the caveat word "generally," I would've mentioned David Duke.

[MarkWarner08]

It reinforces my support for Obama, but my mom DESPISES Kerry. She is registered republican but she called me the other day and we talked about the election, and she so far has been supporting Obama.

Don't tell her about this news...