MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,812
|
 |
« on: April 13, 2007, 12:09:58 AM » |
|
Looks like Lynn Swann might run against Altmire. Swann is a charismatic, attractive minority candidate who is still popular in this part of Pennsylvania with those who remember him from his playing days with the Steelers. Does Swann's interest signify that Melissa Hart is bowing out of a rematch?
Is Altmire the right type (culturally conservative, fiscally moderate) Democrat to hold this district? I think Rep. Altmire is a lot like Ron Klink, who was a perfect fit for this working class district. I wouldn't be surprised if Altmire's political career mimicked that of Jim Gerlach, a tempting target that remains elusive and dashes his opponents hearts every two years.
For the record, here are my current views of the PA House Races that could be competitive:
PA-04: Leans Democratic
PA-06: Slightly Leans GOP. I hope Republicans don't view Mr. 51% as having an impregnable advantage. For all the GOPers who think he's invincible, they should take note of Anne Northup. For all the Democrats who think he'll be knocked off in '08, look no further than another Republican woman in a swing district, Heather Wilson.
PA-07: Likely Democratic. Curt Weldon easily held this seat for 20 years until he was unceremoniously dumped by political neophyte Joe Sestak. Admiral Sestak's impressive showing is evidence of his likely staying power. He'll also benefit from the collapse of the GOP machine in Delaware County which parallels the GOP's downfall in Nassau County, NY.
PA-08: Slightly Leans Democratic. This and IA-02 were the only races I was actually disappointed the Democrat won. Rep. Patrick Murphy has deftly purveyed his military experience into a high-profile role as the de facto spokesman fro the House Democrats on Iraq. I actually think the Democratic members of the "Near Miss Club" such as Linda Stender, Larry Kissell, Dan Maffei, Darcy Burner, Tessa Hafen, Mary Jo Kilroy and more have a better chance of winning than the GOP incumbents like Jim Ryun and Mike Fitzpatrick who are seeking revenge. If Barack Obama is the Democratic standbearer and the war in Iraq is still the paramount issues, expect Murphy to win.
PA-10: Pure Toss-Up. Only in the perverse world of computer generated gerrymandered congressional districts can disgraced Rep. Don Sherwood win 47% in the terrific Democratic year of 2006 despite allegations that committed the reprehensible and inexplicable act of choking his mistress. Jake has pointed out that this district has a 50% solid GOP registration edge. If Chris Carney can continue to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi and the ultra-liberal Democratic House leadership, he'll have a chance of holding this conservative and fiercely partisan district. Jason Altmire must follow the path of Ron Klink, Jim Gerlach needs to eat lunch with the likes of Heather Wilson and Robin Hayes and Chris Carney must channel the political magic of Tim Holden.
PA-15: Leans GOP. Don't listen to the DCCC -- Charlie Dent is not vulnerable. Charlie Dent is a member of the dying breed of socially moderate Republican in the mold of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle. When they retire, like their fellow part outcasts the Dixiecrats, they will be replaced by someone from the other party. Unless the Democrats nab a strong recruit and the Republican malaise continues, expect Dent to continue his promising career though 2008.
PA-18: Likely GOP The Rep. Tim Murphy scandal is simply too complicated for average voters to grasp. I'm convinced the only scandals voters understand are sex scandals (Clinton and Foley) or corruption (DeLay and Ney). Murphy's district is solildy red and will insulate him from any polititical fallout.
|
