'06 House: Will there be party switches?

[MarkWarner08]

As we all know, back in 1994, a handful of Southern Democrats in the House and the Senate switched parties, further solidifying the GOP’s newly gained majorities.
Could Southern D’s tip the balance in 2006?

 I think it’s possible that up to five Southern Democrats could join the GOP if the Democrats gain the majority in the House and nominate Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. This hypothetical scenario will only play out if the Democrats take back the House, pick Pelosi for Speaker and have a narrow majority that could be swayed by  a couple party
switches.

Here are the five Democrats who may switch parties if the Democrats take back the House, robbing Democrats of their tenuous majority:

1.   Allan Boyd (D.,FL) is  the most conservative member of Florida’s Democratic delegation. Boyd, as some remember, was the only Democrat out of 202 in the House who supported Bush’s Social Security privatization scheme.  Boyd’s district is swaying right and it is likely he will be the last Dem to hold this seat.
2.   Henry Cuellar (D.,TX) has always been an  outside in the Democratic party. Cuellar has served in a key cabinet position under a Republican governor, been kissed by Bush,  been targeted for defeat in a primary by the Left and has received a chilly reception from his Democratic colleagues.
3.   Jim Marshall is one of the last of a dying breed –  White Georgian Democrats.
Marshall is from an overwhelmingly Republican district and may be persuaded by political realities to switch parties. This Princeton educated war hero has the most conservative record of Georgia’s ’s Democratic delegation.
4.Bud Cramer (D.,AL) is the last White Democrat in Alabama’s congressional delegation. Cramer routinely wins by lopsided margins in this right-wing district but he is known to have an acrimonious relationship with Pelosi
5. Charlie Melancon’s (D.,LA). 2004 runoff victory stunned many political analysts. His district has been radically on, reconfigured by Katrina and he now faces a well-funded GOP opponent. While Melancon will likely win re-election, it is possible he will follow the path of Rodney Alexander and move his conservative view over to a more comfortable home n the other side of the aisle

[MarkWarner08]

The reason I don't include Gene Taylor is that while he may be conservative, he's a Yellow-Dog Democrat.

Does anyone think that Shays might change parties if the House is at 218 GOP- 217 Democrats?

[MarkWarner08]

If they haven't defected yet and have remained Democrats even though their party is in the minority (and do remember that Cramer has been in the House throughout the House Democrats wilderness years) why on earth would they wait until their party was back in the majority again?

The time to defect is when the party you are defecting to is in the ascendency, not when it's trying to cling onto power.

Wouldn't they be enticed by an offer of a chairmanship and increased power in a Republican House? As Ken Mehlman gleefully points out, the Democrats would chair the major committee are old, liberal and live in safe districts.
A desperate Republican House leadership may be more willing to provide real power to the Cuellar's and Cramer's of the House than liberal Pelosi is.