🇩🇪 German state & local elections

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Five different parties have won a direct seat. Never have I seen such a map. I don't even know when that has happened before in a state election. (In federal elections it's standard.)

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The Saxon result map is interesting, too:



Left politician Juliane Nagel has been re-elected in her constituency Leipzig II.
Despite faring quite moderately, the Greens have at least won 3 direct seats.

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Clear now. AFD will win 7 or 8 Constituencies where the Candidate is not on the list. The 7 I mentioned plus possibly Dresden 6. ARD is saying 116 total seats, ZDF says 120. They will be in the dry under ARDs projection but will miss out on 2/3 underhang seats. Yes that word exists

I learnt a new technical term today: generische Direktmandate.
A pizza coalition is now obsolete in Saxony.

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27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

Worth noting this is only in a couple of states. Getting 27.5% Austria-wide is much more impressive than getting 27.5% in a single state.

But considering Saxony (4,077,937) and Brandenburg (2,511,917) together don't have considerably fewer inhabitants than Austria (8.858.775), it's still an impressive result for the AfD, especially given the fact that they emerged as the victorious party of yesterday's elections.

If you add up the votes from Brandenburg and Saxony, the AfD did manage to come in first...barely.

AfD: 26.02%
CDU: 26.01%
SPD: 14.5%
Left: 10.5%
Greens: 9.4%

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BTW:

Do you think Gov. Bodo Ramelow‘s Linke will also collapse below 20% in Thüringen next month, as seen yesterday, or will there be a rally-effect for the incumbent governor, also as seen yesterday ?

No, he's got the incumbent's bonus. Plus, he is much more moderate than his other East German colleagues.

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And finally, a German state gets a negative majority and even red-red-green wouldn't save it.

What happens in that scenario?

This would be utterly terrible, assuming the FDP doesn't fall under 5%. But if the result is actually like this, maybe the Left and CDU are at least engaging in talks. My assumption is that any negotiations will collapse and a new election early next year is called. With undetermined outcome.

Such a result would be interesting as thrice in a row the AfD would finish runner-up to three different (!) governing parties.

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Brandenburg is going to get a SPD-CDU-Greens Government, after talks for Red-Red-Green ran into the ground, proving once again that the SPD and Greens prefer cuddling up to the CDU more than dealing with teh evil Commies. For those hoping for a red-red-green Government federally in 2021, this perhaps is another reason to be sceptical.

Wow! That would mean three states are likely to be governed by a Kenya coalition, and that one in Brandenburg would be the first SPD-led Kenya cabinet.

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Kinda suprised that the meme is completely unknown in Austria.

Not surprising ...

We rarely watch the Heute Show.

The things we watch is Bares für Rares or Ninja Warrior Germany.

And GNTM and DSDS and TVOG ... 🙄

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BTW: one of my co-workers is actually from Thüringen.

Not sure if she can vote though, because she has her main residence here in Salzburg and state election law in Germany usually does not allow (?) former residents of the state to vote if they are abroad.

Does she have the German citizenship?

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Kinda suprised that the meme is completely unknown in Austria.

Not surprising ...

We rarely watch the Heute Show.

The things we watch is Bares für Rares or Ninja Warrior Germany.

And GNTM and DSDS and TVOG ... 🙄

Maybe others, not me.

I would never watch Topmodel or Dieter Bohlen.

DSDS is mainly undermined by the Swiss. But GNTM, even though you have your own version of that show, and TVOG (the only show of the three I actually watch) attracts many Austrians.

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BTW: one of my co-workers is actually from Thüringen.

Not sure if she can vote though, because she has her main residence here in Salzburg and state election law in Germany usually does not allow (?) former residents of the state to vote if they are abroad.

Does she have the German citizenship?

Of course.

I don’t know about the election laws in each German state and it may even vary from state to state, like it is the case here ...

In some state elections, Austrians abroad are allowed to vote and in others they are not.

In federal elections, they are allowed to vote as well.

No, the law is the same in every state, which is the same as on the federal level.
25 years is the limit for the time you can have your fixed abode outside Germany in order to have right to vote in federal and state elections. I learnt that in a special episode of Monitor before the last federal election.

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It's good, Mr. President, that you happened to post that video, because the woman specking in the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag in that clip is Doris "Princess" von Sayn-Wittgenstein. (She is not really a princess; she merely acquired her title of nobility by purchase, which is totally legal in Germany.) She used to be the AfD state party chairwoman of Schleswig-Holstein, but she was dismissed from her party some weeks ago after she refused to dissociate herself from right-wing associations and from her refusal of accepting the Oder-Neisse line.
That was the first time in the history of the FRG that a state party chair has been unseated by the federal party executive board.

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Actually, it was originally a one-time mistake by a regional newspaper which quickly led to widespread meme. The popularity of the meme in turn caused futher iterations of the same mistake, including one on the official Bundestag website.

Okay, I remembered it wrongly. I'm sorry! I just recalled how Höcke angrily shouted in a clip shown on the heute show that his name was Björn and not Bernd. I thought he referred to a preceding episode of that show

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New poll for Baden-Württemberg, where the next state election takes place in 2021:

Greens: 38% (+7.7%)
CDU: 26% (-1%)
AfD: 12% (-3.1%)
SPD: 8% (-4.7%)
FDP: 8% (-0.3%)
Left: 3% (+1%)

This is the highest percentage value for the Greens in any statewide or countrywide poll ever.
77% of all respondents are satisfied with Governor Winfried Kretschmann's job performance. 71% of them back his decision to seek the governorship for a third time; among the AfD supporters it's only 44%, but that's still a high favorability number.
65% of them stated that they are contented with the green-black government as a whole.

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Now, even Austrian media and FPÖ politicians refer to Björn Höcke as „Bernd“:

Der Reporter bekam aber nicht nur FPÖ-Fans, sondern auch hochrangige Wiener Stadtpolitiker vors Mikro.

FPÖ-Vizebürgermeister Dominik Nepp gibt dem vermeintlichen AfD-Mann zum Beispiel Ratschläge, wie man einen ähnlichen Absturz in der Wählergunst vermeiden könne: "Keine Urlaube in Ibiza!"

Der Wiener Klubchef Toni Mahdalik wünscht AfD-Politiker Bernd Höcke alles Gute für den Wahlkampf in Thüringen: "Lass' di ned unterkriegen. Aber du bist eh ned der Typ dafür..."

https://kurier.at/kultur/fluessiges-kokain-im-schnitzel-heute-show-bei-fpoe-wahlparty/400638926

I am pretty sure that the Kurier knows Höcke's first name; they only quoted Mahdalik.
Here's the video btw they're referring to:

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This election result caused a major earthquake in that region!!!

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Underwhelming result for the center-left, but that is essentially the fallout of the Stuttgart21 disaster.

Should be a warning shot for whenever Kretschmann retires, though. I think the only person who has enough profile to succeed him is Özdemir, but he may have greater Ambitions in Berlin. If he doesn't want to, the Greens are probably going run into a lot of trouble.

Not sure if Özdemir has so many career options left. He spectacularly failed to become foreign minister when Lindner and Kubicki pulled out of the Jamaica coalition negotiations. Then he failed to replace Hofreiter as chairman of the parliamentary group. He may still harbor ambitions but so do many others in Berlin. And some of them may have broader support and therefore better chances to get a cabinet position in 2021. Especially when it comes to the high-profile jobs (i.e., not agriculture or transportation).

Running in Baden-Württemberg as Kretschmann’s successor seems like an elegant way out.

I'm pretty sure Tübingen Mayor Boris Palmer will succeed Kretschmann as MP.
He may be a very polarizing political figure, but his divisive policies are very popular among conservatives, plus he has been a guest on every possible talk show for over a decade now, thus having become well-known among the electorate.
He wanted to become the MP ten years ago anyway, and he was reported to be very affronted and enraged about the party establishment's decision to choose Kretschmann over him.

By the way, with Kuhn leaving office, there is no Green mayor of a city in Baden-Württemberg with >100,000 citizens ("Großstadt") left anymore.

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Not sure if you're serious about this. Palmer is totally isolated within the state party and quite a few high-level party leaders of the Baden-Württemberg GRÜNE would love nothing more than to expel him as soon as possible.* And while he may be quite popular among some soft conservatives and Swabian housewives, he is absolutely detested by the rest of the party base. And I really mean detested. Even considering to nominate him would tear the party apart and severely endanger the Greens' current dominance among urbanites, migrants, U30, and the academic middle class.

I would also say that 'polarizing' is quite an understatement. He repeatedly made racist remarks, coined terms such as Menschenrechtsfundamentalismus (human rights fundamentalism), and was publicly accused of narcissism (Roth), social Darwinism (Kuhn) and xenophobia (the whole federal parliamentary group) by his fellow Greens. Even worse, he downplayed the dangers of COVID-19 and literally asked if the lives of the elderly are worth the lockdown measures.

There's probably a higher chance of Stefan Mappus getting his second term than of Palmer being anywhere near the Villa Reitzenstein.
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*In May 2020, the Baden-Württemberg GRÜNE called on Palmer to leave the party voluntarily while announcing that they would not support him for another mayoral run in 2022.

I'm not quite sure if Palmer is really as detested among the Green party base as you claim. I know the party establishment despises him, and the university students/Antifa faction within the party base wishes him death. However, the Southwest Greens have very little in common with the Kreuzberg hipsters. The vast majority of the Swabian Greens are quite conservative, pro-business, bureaucratic, upscale and wealthy; they represent the "Bunny Caldwell" type of pseudo-liberals: They pretend to be "good human beings" full of good intentions, while slyly cultivating their contempt for mankind; they vow to behave ecoconsciously - and do it by driving their SUV 100 miles to the next eco-grocer to buy vegan lobster and champagne, or by travelling by plane around the world in order to spoon up their favorite sundae; they press for the abolition of the tripartite school system, while sending their own children to high-priced Rudolf Steiner schools, so that they won't come into contact with them unruly, anti-social, and at times criminal lower class kids.

Or in other words, transferred to and compared with American politics: The Baden-Württemberg Greens represent the Klobuchar-Heitkamp faction of their party, whereas the Kreuzberg Greens deify AOC. The only things both groups have in common is their predilection for esoterism and their strong stance against vaccination.

I don't know how Kretschmann's successor will be determined, but if they do it through a primary, Palmer would have a realistic chance of securing the nomination for minister president due to his not-to-be-underestimated grass roots level support. Do you still know Oswald Metzger? He was/is the archetype of a Southwest Green.

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Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

And while we're talking about crises in East German state governments: Christian Democrat Lorenz Caffier has recently resigned as Interior Minister (and therefore also as Deputy Minister President) of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern after 14 (!) years owing to both the purchase of a handgun, intended for his hobby of hunting, and the undergoing of a shooting training from a "prepper" in 2018, who was a member of the banned right-wing extremist organization "Nordkreuz" and who is therefore observed by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

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Two ministers of the Baden-Württemberg state government from two (!) different parties generated headlines today.
On the one hand: Culture Minister Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) for pandering to the Covidiots by claiming that the "Leopoldina", the German National Academy of Natural Sciences, which provides the federal government with professional advice on Corona issues, "hasn't kept pace with the times", as they counseled the state government to temporarily suspend compulsory school attendance as of next week.
And on the other hand: Environment Minister Franz Untersteller (Greens) for driving 177 km/h (≙ 110 mph) within a 120 km/h (≙ 75 mph) zone. Oh, did I mention that this consummate hypocrite is a member of the motorist-hating Greens? 😒

By the way, the next state elections will take place on March 14, 2021... 😏

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Eisenmann is a complete lackluster candidate the CDU nominated for Minister-President, but they don't have anybody else. Strobl probably knows he's doomed against Kretschmann and much rather wants to hang on as chair of the state party and remain Interior Minister and Deputy Minister-President.

Oh, Eisenmann is the Spitzenkandidat? I didn't even know about that. I always took it as settled that Merkel loyalist Thomas Strobl would receive the nomination, after he unexpectedly lost the primary against Guido Wolf in 2015.

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Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

The fee is no longer an issue. I wonder who will benefit more from it in the next Saxony-Anhalt state election next June: the CDU or the AfD?

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Yes, she has been nominated months ago. Strobl withdrew after poor polling numbers. However, Eisenmann barely gets into double digits when polled one-on-one with Kretschmann, who's in mid to high 60s.

Some individual polls showed the CDU barely leading, however, I expect the Greens to go back up once Kretschmann actually starts campaigning. At this point, there isn't much public attention on the state election. It will be interesting to see whether Kretschmann serves out his full third term (he turns 73 next year) or whether he retires ahead of time. I could see him resigning a year or two early so that his successor can run as an incumbent then.

I just took a look at the latest polls, and I must say: The upcoming election is becoming really exciting. The Greens and the CDU regularly take turns at leading in the polls.
I always started from the premise that the next election would be a sure-fire success for the Greens, especially since the bigger party usually eats up the smaller one in a grand coalition, but this time the CDU seems to prevail.

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Here's the schedule for the upcoming state elections:

• March 14: Baden-Württemberg + Rhineland-Palatinate
• April 25: Thuringia (snap election) (postponed until Federal Election Day)
• June 6: Saxony-Anhalt
• September 26: Federal Election + Mecklenburg-Vorpommern + Thuringia (snap election) + Berlin¹⁾

1) The date for the Berlin state election has not officially been announced yet, though. If the expected election date does hold true, it will mark only the second time after Reunification that both the Bundestag and the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus are to be elected on the same day.

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But I thought Candy Crush Governor Ramelow's political had been declared dead now by his own Twitter Antifa after calling his boss "Merkelchen"¹⁾... 🙅🏻‍♂️

1) That's called a diminutive.