🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

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I sure hope not.  One of the things I love about renting a car in Europe and driving in Germany is fact I can drive at over 200 km/h.  Its only place on earth I can legally do this, so I really hope that stays.

Tell that to the SPD, the Greens and the Linke. Their yearning for a speed limit on German Autobahns has become pathologic in the meantime. If a foreign red avatar opposes a speed limit, that ought to give them pause for thought...

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When is Schulz likely to become chancellor? (educated guess on basis of what we know right now)

You mean Scholz. Schulz's train has already crashed with great panache.

So there is a 90% chance or so Merkel becomes longest serving Chancellor of post-WWII Germany?

At this juncture I'd like to discreetly cross-reference to my already four-year-old poll...

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As this hasn't been done before (at least I think so), here is the Bundesländer result map:

Schleswig-Holstein remains Germany's bellwether state No. 1; this Land has mostly (barring twice) voted for the party of the overall winning chancellor candidate.
Schleswig-Holstein moreover contains Germany's bellwether constituency No. 1: Pinneberg (No. 7), which has always sent the district candidate of the overall winning chancellor candidate's party to the Bundestag via direct mandate. (It would technically be wrong to say that this district has always given its first vote to the new chancellor's party. Take a guess why...)

Another remarkable result is Rhineland-Palatinate having voted SPD for only the second time.

The biggest surprise for me is the fact that the AfD somehow managed to receive more than 5% in every single state.

SPD Best: Saarland (37.3%) Worst: Bavaria (18.0%)	CDU/CSU Best: Bavaria (31.7%) Worst: Brandenburg (15.3%)	Grüne Best: Hamburg (24.9%) Worst: Saarland (0%) [Saxony-Anhalt (6.5%)]

FDP Best: Baden-Wurttemberg (15.3%) Worst: Berlin (8.1%)	AfD Best: Saxony (24.6%) Worst: Hamburg (5.03%)	Linke Best: Berlin (11.45%) Worst: Bavaria (2.8%)

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Who are likely to become Foreign Affairs Minister in new government?

The kind of obvious choice that comes to mind is Annalena Baerbock. But maybe the Greens will trade it away for something better, who knows?

I really hope they are going to choose Cem Özdemir for Foreign Minister. He speaks two more languages than ACAB, plus he's a fierce opponent of Atals' favorite dictator Sultan Erdogan; he could stand up to him in their own mother tongue during official talks and negotiations.

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I hope Cem Özdemir replaces Winfried Kretschmann as Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg in the coming years, or certainly well ahead of the 2026 election.

Speaking of upcoming Green minister-presidents, I kind of "hope" that Habeck does have governorship ambitions (against all speculations), as the alternative would be devastating...

Baerbock is going to be Foreign Minister unless the ministry goes to the FDP. In that case, I think Alexander Graf Lambsdorff is the obvious choice since he's the party's foreign policy expert who has also experience in the European parliament. He'd certainly be a good pick and quite frankly is among my favorite FDP politicians.

Who do you think is going to occupy the Environment/Climate Ministry? I was always expecting ACAB to claim that office.

More interesting is the question who willbe Finance Minister, Christian Lindner or Robert Habeck. Several FDP members have already suggested Lindner for the position, just to get rebuffed by the Greens. Usually cabinet positions are among the last issues decided during formal coalition negotations.

I think it's beyond dispute that Lindner will be granted the Finance Ministry. Please note that it's the FDP that has to make the most compromises/concessions within an Ampel coalition. Moreover, Lindner already conceded the establishment of a veto-powered" climate ministry" to the Greens.

Another important position to be filled is Defense Minister and I'm relatively certain Lars Klingbeil will be chosen. He managed an excellent SPD campaign as General Secretary and is an expert in defense issues. Scholz will definitely reward him for his work over most recent months.

I also think that it's a deal cast in stone that that Brigitte Nielsen doppelganger from Düsseldorf will be granted the Ministry of Defense. Unlike him and both her predecessors, she is proficient in military issues.
Plus, keep in mind that the FDP can claim about four departments. If the SPD lay claim to the Hardthöhe, and the Greens claim the exchequer, there isn't much to remain for the FDP. Which ministries, beside the foreign affairs portfolio, would be left for the Free Democrats in your estimation?

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Meanwhile, the seating arrangements between the different parliamentary group within the plenary hall has been plunged into controversy.
The FDP wants to move to left, between Greens and Union, away from the AfD, in order to be closer to the new coalition partner and in order to signalize that they intent on forming a coalition "representing the middle class". The Union, particularly the CSU, refuses that the FDP's request steadfastly.
A similar dispute was sparked four years ago; it was obviously lost by the FDP.

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Another issue that didn't receive a lot of attention since formal trafficlight coalition talks were agreed to: Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now a lot closer to a second term as president. The FDP already expressed support for his reelection in March 2022. Trafficlight parties have a majority of the federal convention that elects the president (all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors sent by states, according to Landtag compositions). The Greens are rumored to have favored a woman for the presidency, but I assume they will join SPD and FDP in support for Steinmeier. With a Jamaica coalition, his fate would have been much more in question.

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president. Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.

Bärbel Bas from Duisburg is reported to become the new Bundestags President.
She will be the third Social Democrat and the thrid woman to hold that office.
Bas has been a member of the Bundestag since 2009.

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Meanwhile, the seating arrangements between the different parliamentary group within the plenary hall has been plunged into controversy.
The FDP wants to move to left, between Greens and Union, away from the AfD, in order to be closer to the new coalition partner and in order to signalize that they intent on forming a coalition "representing the middle class". The Union, particularly the CSU, refuses that the FDP's request steadfastly.
A similar dispute was sparked four years ago; it was obviously lost by the FDP.

In every single state legislature, the CDU is sitting next to the AfD:

Interestingly, also in Saxony-Anhalt. Is that new?
Wasn't there a fierce dispute going on between the newly elected Greens and the CDU-led Landtag presidium five years ago? I thought the Greens had to sit next to the AfD in the end. How was that settled? Or did I miss something?

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Does anybody know where I can get a map displaying the winner of the second vote in each county? I don't know why it's so hard/impossible to find such a map.

We have so many users with awesome software prowess around here. Would they mind compiling a county map from their data archive? 🥺

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FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said that they're planning to wrap up the coalition negotiations until the end of November with the election and inauguration of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor intended for the week of December 6.

December 6 is Saint Nicholas Day.

Saint Nicholas wears red and transfers money to the poor, like the social democrats

It should be noted that it's a very common custom for children in Germany to polish their boots on the eve of St. Nicholas' Day and set them outside in order for Saint Nicholas to fill them with candy - providing they have been good and virtuous all throughout the year. 🍬👢🍭

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I don't wanna crow about my own accomplishments, but I think it's worthy of mention that I was the only one to check the correct answer in that January 11, 2020 poll.




I will now accept my accolades‼

And I think it deserves a (dis)honorable mention that our self-proclaimed German politics pundit floated two random suggestions, both of which turned out to be painfully wrong. 🙅🏼‍♂️😒🤦🏼‍♂️

Habeck or Baerbock

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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There was another poll from several months ago about the next chancellor and I answered "Olaf Scholz (troll option)", but can't find it anymore. Somehow I must have overlooked the thread above.

That was my poll, but YE deleted all my topics on this board after it had been undermined by trolls and haters (bar the poll about Merkel breaking Kohl's record).

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TBF you were likely answering this not based on data at the time - which suggested a Union stranglehold on the electorate challenged only by the Greens - but more on your gut. And I'm not sure if that proves you have more foresight or are just a committed SPD partisan - not a bad thing but just a recognition of  perspectives.

I'll admit having voted on mostly my "gut feeling".
I started on the premise that most Germans were tired of voting for the CDU (which proved to be a correct assumption), while simultaneously being scared of a Green Party, which had been becoming more and more radicalized, and becoming more and more sympathetic to the [censored], FFF, Extinction Rebellion, Jan Böhmermann's brigade and other far-left terror groups (which also proved itself true).
TBH, in the meantime I was genuinely dreading the prospect of the CDU or the Greens remaining or becoming, respectively, the next chancellor party.

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Schleswig-Holstein moreover contains Germany's bellwether constituency No. 1: Pinneberg (No. 7), which has always sent the district candidate of the overall winning chancellor candidate's party to the Bundestag via direct mandate. (It would technically be wrong to say that this district has always given its first vote to the new chancellor's party. Take a guess why...)

As nobody has taken a guess, I'd herewith like to answer that question:
In the very first federal election of the FRG in 1949, the citizens cast only one vote, which served both as the "first vote" for the direct candidate of their constituency and simultaneously as the "second vote" for the statewide party list. (The same mode is still used for most municipality elections.)
Thus, it would have technically been wrong to say that the bellwether constituency Pinneberg has always given its first vote to the party of the overall winning chancellor candidate.

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I truly think a government with elements of social democracy, environmentalism and liberalism has great potential for good.

I wish you good luck and much fun with Kubicki!

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Finally, as a member of the Green party, I'm personally offended by the libelous claim that my party is "more and more sympathetic to far-left terror groups" and if Hades wants to have any dealings with me in the future I'm expecting a apology from him on the matter.

Please tell me first about your opinion of Sarah Lee Heinrich, the Führer*in of the Baerbockjugend. Do you deify her - just like the vast majority of your party comrades does - or do you deem her to be a socially dangerous fascist - just like the majority of society does?

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Isn't  Özdemir an urbanite politican with a mostly city-based district ? Does he have any experience or antyhing with agriculture ? seems like a bizzare spot for a politican of his caliber and experience.

Qualification has never been a prerequisite for a cabinet post in German politics. That's why Dr. Lauterbach is likely to never become health minister. (That and because Olaf Scholz and the FDP despise him.)
Özdemir ought to become Foreign Minister, not only because he is fluent in at least two more languages than ACAB. (That and because PUTP disdains him.)
In Schleswig-Holstein, for example, we have a Green kindergarten teacher as Finance Minister.
Another apt example is Sigmar Gabriel and Barbara Hendricks, both of whom were appointed environment minister despite Michael Müller (not to be confused with the current Berlin Mayor), a renowned environmental politician and environmentalist journalist) desperately seeking the nomination.

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Actually, I never wanted to post anything in this forum anymore, but I discovered a very interesting fact about the composition of the German parliament that I want to share with you:

Since January, a political party that produced several chancellors in the Weimar Republic has been represented in the Bundestag. Take a guess at what party that could be...

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🤮

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On a related note, Green ministers are also leading the approval polls. Which isn't to surprising.  Habeck is kind of an Ersatzkanzler who is basically doing the communication and explanation stuff related the crisis related polices as "Who's ordering leadership will get leadership" Scholz is basically invisible.

If the Greens had dissociated themselves from your party's misandrist manifesto, Habeck would not be Vizekanzler or "Ersatzkanzler" right now, he would be the Federal Chancellor of Germany (or my Minister President, respectively) instead.

But anyway, both ACAB's and Habeck's favorability numbers have dropped dramatically.
Take a guess at who has now become the most "popular" politician, albeit not owing to his own strength, but thanks to ACAB's and Habeck's failure to perform properly. 🤣

I'll give you a hint: PUTP despises that person... 👿

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While we're at it...

According to DeutschlandTrend (the opinion poll broadcast of the other state TV channel) Scholz has the lowest favorability ratings of an incumbent chancellor since Schröder in 2004:



The citizens aren't satisfied with the Ampel parties' performance whatsoever:





Even the SPD voters themselves think that their preferred party's performance within the government leaves a lot to be desired:



This eventually results in the SPD competing with the AfD for the fourth place:

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So the Berlin Constitutional Court has scheduled its decision about an election redo for November 16th, which means that given the 90 day period that a new election must be held (if they decide a redo must happen), the absolute latest date an election would be held would be February 14th, 2023.

And since that is a Tuesday, and elections are held on Sundays, we would see the latest election date as February 12th, 2023.

Constitutional judge and former Saarland Governor Peter Müller lambasted Berlin's administrative apparatus for the election glitches in a FAZ podcast, comparing goings-on to those of a dictatorial developing nation.

Gonna be fun having a campaign in the dead of winter!

This should be on the "German state & local elections" thread, anyway, as the results of the federal election will not be affected by the court decision.

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Bad news for PJ, good news for PUTP, whatever news for MAE;
for the first time since its onset, the Ampel coalition doesn't have a majority in the polls anymore:

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Any chance LINKE gets shut out of parliament given the re-running of the berlin election ?

The "re-running" of the Berlin election only applies to the state election The federal election results are not affected by the possible nullification of the federal election.

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The Election Review Committee now recommended a partial repetition in 431 districts. The Bundestag must decide on this. Due to numerous breakdowns in the 2021 Bundestag election in Berlin, the majority of the Bundestag Election Review Committee has spoken out in favor of a partial repetition. This should apply to 431 of the 2,256 districts in the city. Both the first and the second vote should be repeated. The decision in the committee was made with the votes of the coalition representatives of the SPD, Greens and FDP. "The electoral glitches must not be swept under the table, but must have consequences," said the chairman of the SPD parliamentary group in the committee, Johannes Fechner. The Bundestag is expected to decide on the recommendation of the Election Review Committee at the end of the week. However, the parliamentary groups believe that a repetition could be challenged before the Federal Constitutional Court. When the partial repetition could take place is still open. It is also unclear what effect it could have on the composition of the Bundestag. The Ampel representatives in the committee presented a corresponding proposal at the beginning of October. The CDU/CSU parliamentary group, on the other hand, advocated for a more extensive new election in Berlin. However, since the Ampel coalition has the majority in the committee, a recommendation for a partial repetition had already been assumed.

The federal election on September 26 last year overlapped with other elections in Berlin. The House of Representatives and the twelve district parliaments were elected on the same day. In addition, there was a referendum on the expropriation of large housing groups. Some ballot papers were missing or incorrectly issued. At times, some polling stations had to close and long queues formed in front of the entrances. Some polling stations were therefore even open until after the official closing at 6 p.m. Due to the Berlin marathon, roads were also closed and made it difficult, among other things, to deliver ballot papers.

Please note that there is also a scrutiny going on with regard to the Berlin state and community elections commissioned by the elections administrator of the state of Berlin, about which the Berlin Constitutional Court will decide on November 16.