Julián Castro vs. Kevin Faulconer

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Who would stand the better chance of getting elected LIEUTENANT Governor of their respective state in 2018? (I'm not even talking chances of becoming Governor to make this scenario a little more realistic.) Both politicians are considered hopefuls by pundits for their respective thorny home territories.

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0% = 0%. Faulconer is the stronger candidate, but he's running in CA, so that cancels it out.

Even if Antonio Villaraigosa is his opponent?

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How did Faulconer manage to win the mayoral election in San Diego anyway? Is it a right-wing city? Are surfers especially conservative?

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One advantage faulconer would have over Castro is, as noted, Castro would have to give up his congressional seat to run for governor or senator outside of an odd year special election. Faulconer has to run for reelection during presidential years, where is the governorship and other Statewide offices in California are up for vote in off-years. Thus, he could run and still keep his job.

I was talking about Julián Castro, not about his twin brother Joaquín.