German Elections & Politics

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I'd bet some money on new federal elections on or before May 26, 2019.

Which is the date of the Euro elections and four state elections, three of which are in the East where Merkel has become electoral poison actually no, just one state election (Bremen) but lots of local elections.

If Köhler and Wulff hadn't stepped down, that date would also be the presidential election day.
Wouldn't that be cool to have the European election, the federal election, the presidential election and the first interesting Bremen state election since the foundation of the FRG on the same day?

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Several party members argue in support of running a primary ("Urabstimmung") - and the CDU really ought to do that, both for the party leadership and the chancellor candidacy.

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What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

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Merz officially in!

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What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

I think they're both equally supportive of the EU.

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Not what I mean. Who is more likely to oppose mass immigration as much as possible?

I think Spahn is a tad more skeptical towards mass immigration, not least because of his sexual orientation. Merz, on the other hand, is an economic lobbyist who works closely with and for marketing boards, which have been pressing for mass immigration for years.
Merz even rejected the Ludwig Erhard Prize this year, which honors free-market friendly activists, because he didn't want to share the stage with controversial, AfD-friendly publicist Roland Tichy.

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

I couldn't have explained it more accurately.

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If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

Yes, They would have handled it like Sebastian Kurz and haven't opened the borders.

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Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

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Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

Yes but you haven't refuted my argument: the CDU/CSU prefers a 2.5 party government over a a 3.5 party or or one where they are out of power, the two option available in new elections are called. The SPD wants access to power and a greater share of the parliamentary seats, both things that go away with new elections. Basically what I am saying is that while the Grand Coalition is not working to the best of its ability, its the best of all possible options on the table.

Well, I think all three parties know - to quote a famous SPD politician - that it's better have an ending with dread than dread without an ending. Moreover, the Greens and the FDP in one government are very hard to handle; no such coalition has lasted a whole tenure at the state level.
Furthermore; i doubt that the SPD really wants access to power.

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If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

Yes, They would have handled it like Sebastian Kurz and haven't opened the borders.

I'm not even sure AKK or Armin Laschet would have acted like Mutti did. Still hope Laschet jumps in and replaces Merkel as chancellor.

I could see him as party leader, but not as chancellor.
Schäuble is likelier to become head of government.

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What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Currently, an old 2008 article has been dug out and circulated, where Merz was advocating for the reduction of the social welfare ("Hartz IV") down to 132 €. He thereby quoted a study that had tried to appraise the amount of money that is necessary for German citizens to survive everyday life. Merz was anticipated that his proposal would prove popular among the worker class. He was also making reference to Nicolas Sarkozy, who had won against Ségolène Royal one year ago by propagating an alternative program to the Socialists.

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Still hope Laschet jumps in and replaces Merkel as chancellor.

Nope. Laschet has declined today to run for party leader.

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What were the party breakdowns for Frankfurt?

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I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

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I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

Why would or should I want to know more about 3 obscure candidates ?

It's not like they are getting more than 0.1% of the delegates ...

I think they are gonna drop out of the race in time. Do you still remember the four obscure candidates that decided to challenge Nahles earlier this year, only one of whom eventually competed against her: Simone Lange, who received decent 27.6%?
My favorite, Triple D - vocational school teacher Dirk Diedrich from Dithmarschen -, had dropped out way too early.

Once all candidates have officially announced their candidacies, I'm gonna make a poll about Merkel's succession as party leader.

One of the minor candidates is Andreas Ritzenhoff, a businessman who joined the CDU less than a year ago. The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.
I guess these candidates could've gotten up to 20% against Merkel. With three major candidates they're obviously irrelevant now.

Thanks! 👍🏻

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One of the minor candidates is Andreas Ritzenhoff, a businessman who joined the CDU less than a year ago.

I just read an interview with him.

Ritzhoff (61) is a passionate proponent of the foundation of the "United States of Europe". He won't win. One of the reasons for his compassion for the EU is that he wants to fight against China's role in the world economy and the buyout of Germany companies by Chinese state-owned enterprises.
Furthermore, he speaks for more climate protection, more clean energy, more animal welfare and moreover for establishing primaries for electing party officials.
His occupation is leading a medium-sized Marburg company called Seidel GmbH & Co. KG, which is the world market leader in manufacturing aluminum design products.

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The second candidate is a law student from Berlin, but I don't remember his name. I know nothing about the third candidate.

His name is Jan-Philipp Knoop. The 26-year-old is known for being a harsh critic of Merkel's asylum policy, wanting to "get the situation under control again". His highest "office" in the CDU was "social media representative" in the Berlin chapter of Kleistpark.



He will definitely get more votes than Ritzenhoff.
I swear I heard on the political TV broadcaster Phoenix that there was also a third candidate, but I can't find anything about him, either. 😕

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Found him, it's Matthias Herdegen.
I'm not sure if any of these candidates will get any votes at all, especially if it's a close race. Why would anyone waste their vote on these guys?

Good job!
Herdegen (also 61) is a professor of international law from Bonn. However, he doesn't seem to have a specific agenda whatsoever.



Regardless of their political views, isn't the set of minor candidates composed of an accomplished, varied mixture of different properties?
There is a middle-class entrepreneur, a university student, and a professor; a left-wing candidate who sounds like Merkel, a right-wing candidate who sounds like the AfD, and a theoretician who doesn't sound like anything; someone from very liberal Marburg, someone from Berlin and someone from very conservative Bonn. I'm curious to know which of the three candidates will win the most votes in the first round.

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I'm not sure if any of these candidates will get any votes at all, especially if it's a close race. Why would anyone waste their vote on these guys?

As there will be a runoff if no candidate receives a majority in the first round, I can imagine that some of the delegates will want to give "the party establishment™" a warning, since all three minor candidates explain their decision to run by being an alternative to the present party leadership.

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Regarding the UN compact on migration Herdegen is rather critical.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article183078096/UN-Migrationspakt-Unterzeichnerstaaten-schaffen-damit-Erwartungen-bei-Migrationswilligen.html

'The Bonn-based international law professor Matthias Herdegen warns against the associated "gray area of ​​legal non-commitment, that still gives the impression of liability." Signatory states "thus create expectations among those willing to migrate" without, however, building on "reliable structures", according to the scientist who recently announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship in an interview with WELT.'

Herdegen is rather conservative, he is for control and restriction of immigration, for lower taxes, against quantitative easing in the Eurozone, for an active role of Germany in the NATO and for a CDU/CSU minority government.
https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/kandidat-fuer-cdu-vorsitz-ein-professor-will-es-wagen-merkel-herausforderer-matthias-herdegen_id_9798483.html

He sounds like Spahn and Merz combined in one person.

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ENDORSEMENT TIME!!!
There are seven official subsidiary organizations within the CDU/CSU:

Women's Union (FU; 155,000 members)
Young Union (JU; CDU/CSU's joint youth organization; 110,000 members; very powerful)
Seniors' Union (SU; 54,000 members)
Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT; 30,000 members; very powerful)
Christian Democratic Employees' Association (CDA; many members)
East and Middle German Association (OMV)
Local-politics Association (KPV)

The Women's Union is the only sub-organization that has already committed itself. Guess to whom.
AKK also got the endorsement of the CDU Saarland state sub-organizations JU, FU, CDA and MIT.
The Seniors' Union is reported to endorse AKK, too.

There are some smaller CDU associations like the archconservative such as the "Values Union" or the "Berlin Circle" and the neoliberal Economic Advisory Council, all of which support Merz's candidacy.

Source.

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On a side note, I think, a Merz-CDU would take more from the FDP actually. At least I can't see AfD voters in the east, of whom most would want a stronger welfare state (but for whites only) and are more "Russia-understanding" will be swayed by Friedrich Merz.

Plus, Merz lambasted Roland Tichy for his political closeness to the AfD, which is why he rejected the Ludwig Erhard Prize earlier this year.