German Elections & Politics

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Approval ratings of the top-ranking politicians. Please note Interior Minister Horst Seehofer's numbers:

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And last but not least: The trustworthiness of certain countries; it's the first time that the Germans consider the USA less reliable than Russia:

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If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

Frauke Petry founded her own party: Die Blauen, which might enter the Saxon parliament next fall.
I suggest if Wagenknecht creates a new one, too, she call it "Die Roten" - and she would be likely to to fill a niche in the market; we don't have a Democratic party that is both socialist and pro-German.

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Meanwhile, the AfD is about to draw level with the former big-tent party sPD:

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That INSA poll is really interesting. It seems to show that many CDU, and FDP voters and some SPD voters (or are they just voting more to the left in this scenario?) would switch, but not many AFD voters. I would have thought that big chunks of the non-Bavarian AFD voters would be attracted to a national CSU.

Well, that would be 5% shift, which is impressive.

Some time ago there was a poll about if the voters would approve of a nationwide CSU. All AfD voters favored that idea, but most of them would still not vote for the CSU, since a vote for that party would still be a vote for the CDU.

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Is Scholz a Third Wayer?

Yes, or as we call them in Germany: a Seeheimer.

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Who is seen as the most likely successor to the chancellorship if Merkel were to step down, von der Leyen?

I thought Kramp-Karrenbauer was being groomed for the role.

I'm sure that Schäuble would play the interim chancellor until the next elections.

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This whole conundrum has caused the '02 election to reenter my thought-space - How did Stoiber even manage to hustle himself into the position of Chancellor-candidate for the Union, anyhow? It's insane just how close that under-discussed election was, too: Just over six thousand votes separated the parties national popular vote totals!

Had the Union led by 6,000 votes instead, red-green would still have won as the Greens were significantly stronger than the FDP.
The two main reasons why Schröder was able to make up so much ground were his rejection of sending troops to Iraq and his handling of the devastating floods in East Germany.

There was a in-fighting between Merkel and Stoiber as to who should become chancellor candidate. Merkel copped out as though she knew red-green were going to win the election.

To understand German politics at the pre-Merkel era you have to be aware of the fact that Merkel symbolized everything that the CDU used to fight against: She is not only a woman, she is also childless, once divorced, from East Germany and, worst of all, a Protestant.
Stoiber, on the other hand, was the Governor of a economically very strong, very rich, very big state, he has been reelected with a majority several times, and the CSU laid claim to the nomination after the CDU had provided the chancellor candidate every time after 1980.

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Interstingly Markus Söder is actually protestant.

Wow! I didn't know that fact.
But he isn't the first Protestant governor of Bavaria; Middle Franconian Protestant Günther Beckstein was minister-president for a whopping 384 days in 2007/08, until he was "recommended" to step down due to an abysmal state election result of 10% 20% 30% 40% 43.4%, which was the third-worst result for the CSU after ever (which may be deceeded this fall).
It's also interesting how Beckstein took office...
Fürth County commissioner Gabriele Pauli (CSU) vented her displeasure about her Minister-President and CSU party leader Edmund Stoiber in 2006. Among other things, she taxed him with misogyny and complained about his relatively low approval ratings.
In revenge, he had fellow party members sounded out about her private life, for example about drinking problems and male acquaintances. When the political machinations were revealed, Pauli called for a party member vote for both the party leadership and the gubernatorial nomination, both of which passed muster with the next party convention.
As Stoiber didn't want to risk a defeat or a bad result and because of the still declining polling numbers, he stepped down from both from either post. The party members chose Günther Beckstein as their minister-presidential candidate (who was consequently elected minister-president by the Bavarian Landtag on October 9, 2007, one prior to the next Landtag election), and Erwin Huber was elected party leader.
Pauli left the CSU in November 2007 and joined the Free Voters in June 2008. She became a Landtag member for that party that fall and led the party list for the European election in 2009, where the Free Voters, however, fell below the 5% threshold. As she didn't see any real chance for the Voters to be elected to the Bundestag that same year, she considered founding a new party called Free Union, for which she was expelled from the Free Voters.
She eventually wanted to stand for the Bundestag election with her newly founded party, but ... she forgot to sign the application she submitted to the Federal Returning Officer... 🤦‍♂️

Günther Beckstein	Gabriele Pauli	Erwin Huber

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It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

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It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

Thanks, I didn't know that ...

Now that I have read about the 15 amendments, I'd approve all of them via straight-ticket choice (which is an option for voters).

Voters can either approve the changes to the constitution by straight-ticket confirmation or each amendment individually.

Even the avowal to the EU?

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There's nothing wrong with such principles in the Hessian constitution. Now that Germany is a member of the EU, Hesse is not only a state of Germany any longer - but also an integral part of the EU.

But that would also mean a step forward to the abolishment of the Germany sovereignty.
I'm dying to get to know the breakdown of the party vote regarding all those amendments. Many people will realize for the first that many citizens share many items of the AfD manifesto.

In particular the question about the abolition of the death penalty will be intersting. It will be funny to see how many people are going to vote against its abolishment, albeit just for fun.

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But that would also mean a step forward to the abolishment of the Germany sovereignty.
I'm dying to get to know the breakdown of the party vote regarding all those amendments. Many people will realize for the first that many citizens share many items of the AfD manifesto.

State constitutions are pretty meaningless, because federal law trumps a lot in this regard.

So of what effect would it be that Hesse rejects EU commitment when Germany as a whole has already joined the EU ?

I could see this question being some sort of protest vote, but I don't think it will be higher than 30-35%. Maybe even just 20-25% in the end.

The death penalty repeal* will also get just limited opposition: polls show that only 10-20% of Germans/Austrians these days support the death penalty.

* the death penalty of course is already repealed of course in the federal German constitution, which trumps Hesse's, so this is only a formal vote.
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The German government is already planning on abolishing the Federal Republic of Germany in favor of founding the United States of Europe. Most Germans fiercely oppose this idea, even if they support the EU in general. The Hessians could thwart the government's plans by their protest vote.

I could also see many Hessians voting against the abolition fo the death penalty, simply just as a kind of running gag, but also for the purpose of a veto against the Kuscheljustiz that has become rampant in the German judicial machinery.

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* of course, the death penalty is already repealed in the federal German constitution, which trumps Hesse's, so this is only a formal vote anyway.

BTW: how is it possible that Hesse voters are allowed to vote on the subject of the death penalty in the first place ? I thought some EU guideline forbids member states to hold referendums on the death penalty ? What if - highly theoretically - Hesse votes in favour of keeping the death penalty in their constitution ?

Since federal law breaks state law, and as Hesse is not a member state of the EU, it seems to be possible.

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I'm such a political and psephologist nerd that I first thought those were the poll numbers for the SPD in the Schröder era...

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In the meantime, the German Charlie Baker, Schleswig-Holstein Governor Daniel Günther, suggested his party collaborate with the Left, at least in the East. Of course, his proposal caused immediate indignation and many party members of his snubbed it disgust. Only some eastern Christian Democrats are not averse to approching their former fiends; the CDU party leader of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Vincent Kokert cautioned against a demonization of the Left in the East; at municipal level both parties had been having a long history of successful cooperation, plus most of the Left Party members didn't want to do any harm to Germany anymore, he said. His Brandenburgian confrère also pressed for a discussion culture that excludes opponents.



a picture of Governor Günther

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I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%

In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

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Are Blaue even projected to get into the Saxon parliament?

Not yet. But Petry can account herself lucky that the European elections, which don't require any threshold, will be held four months earlier. A respectable result (3% and higher) would give her party a boost in the polls.

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Btw, you even don't need all of them (SPD, Greens, FDP) out of the legislature, it gets complicated if the AfD and the Left have a majority. It almost happend in Magdeburg in 2016.

I've posted this chart before. It shows that none of the common coalitions would work in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, if the Bundestag election results were state election results.

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France uses a form of FPTP and it hasn't prevented a proliferation of small parties winning seats...

If Germany copied France both AfD and Linke would become fringe parties with a handful of seats, while SPD and CDU/CSU would cement themselves as the only ones with a chance. I guess the Greens might barely survive thanks to votes in hip urban centres while FDP would probably die because of its vote being too spread out.

That's actually not predictable yet; the first-vote map can't be transferred to a situation where the members of parliament are elected via the FPTP system. Especially in the last election many people gave their first vote to the CDU or the SPD in order to prevent an AfD win in their district, as those voters (in particular from the Greens and the Left) could still give their decisive second vote to their own party. I'm not sure if that many voters would vote tactically in a FPTP system.
Both the Left and the AfD each won the second vote in 7 constituencies, wheres they only won 5 or 3 direct mandates, respectively. I'm not suggesting that that's a huge increase, but given the current polls, where the CDU/CSU performs three percentage points worse and the AfD four percentage points better than in the last federal election, the latter is likely to win the second vote in waaaay more constituencies next time. As to the FDP, however, you're absolutely right, and that's one argument more for introducing the FPTP system.

first-vote winners = direct mandate winners	second-vote winning parties Note that blue stands for both the CSU and AfD.

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Here are two facts about the AfD:
Hesse and Bavaria will be the only two state until October where the AfD is currently not being represented in their respective parliaments.
The last Bavarian state election had been held one week before the 2013 federal election. For strategic reasons, the AfD didn't want to seek ballot status.
In Hesse, on the other hand, where the last federal election took place on the same day as the federal election, the AfD failed to pass the 5% threshold. Hesse is therefore the only state where the AfD unsuccessfully competed for entering parliament.
From fall 2019 on it is possible that the AfD will be the only party that is represented in every state parliament.

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Here are two facts about the AfD:
Hesse and Bavaria will be the only two state until October where the AfD is currently not being represented in their respective parliaments.
The last Bavarian state election had been held one week before the 2013 federal election. For strategic reasons, the AfD didn't want to seek ballot status.
In Hesse, on the other hand, where the last federal election took place on the same day as the federal election, the AfD failed to pass the 5% threshold. Hesse is therefore the only state where the AfD unsuccessfully competed for entering parliament.
From fall 2019 on it is possible that the AfD will be the only party that is represented in every state parliament.

Well, the CDU would be represented in Bavaria.

If Seehofer and Söder read this, they would give you some Watschn...

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I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%

In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

While it could happen that AfD and Linke get a majority next fall, it's completely unrealistic that "Die Blauen" will make it into the parliament. I don't even see them getting close to 1%. Frauke Petry is completely irrelevant. When Bernd Lucke left the party, the AfD crashed in the polls. After Petry left it, the AfD gained a few percent. And even Lucke's Party never came close to getting 1% in any election.
I don't get why the SPD wouldn't get above 5%. They're above 10% in every single poll but one - and that was an INSA poll. And don't forget that the Saxony CDU is the most conservative CDU state party in all of Germany. They have more in common with the CSU than with Günther, Laschet or even Merkel. I guess they'd rather have a minority government supported by the AfD than a coalition with Die Linke, because the latter would be pure suicide.

I'm not suggesting that Die Blauen are likely to meet the threshold, but I think the comparison between Lucke and Petry is a bit lame. Do you know lucke's home state? I'll give you a hint: It's the state with the AfD's third-worst result. Plus, Lucke's ALFA LKR is just a superfluous copy of the FDP, just without the pro-euro fetish; his party even supports migration and the EU membership.
Petry, on the other hand, lives in a very conservative state with a significant number of right-wing movements. She has a significantly higher chance of entering the parliament, especially after the riots in Chemnitz that could scare some AfD sympathizers away.

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The latest federal election was held exactly one year ago ...

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BREAKING NEWS

CDU/CSU faction leader Volker Kauder, a loyal Merkel ally, surprisingly voted out of office by 125:112 votes after 13 (!) years.

New faction leader is the fiscal expert Ralph Brinkhaus.

Kauder was not only endorsed by Merkel, but also by CSU party leader Horst Seehofer and CSU Bundestag group leader Alexander Dobrindt.