German Elections & Politics

[palandio]

If by "seats" you mean two or more seats, definitely not. There is an outside chance that they reach one seat, because they would only need ca. 0.5%.

I just don't see who would vote for Frauke Petry now apart from a small fraction of people in her constituency, maybe.

[EPG]

Only because the Greens are doing very well.

[President Johnson]

I think it is going to continue that the AfD and the Greens are the beneficiaries in this polarized environment, because both ultimately represent the pro or against "open borders/globalism" policy. The CDU is unable to win back those "concerned" voters on the right, of whom most are not Nazis. Simply because Merkel moved to party too far to the center and the current composition of the government (with a center-left party) makes it practically impossible. The CSU and Seehofer screwed it up although they were not wrong on the issues during the recent confrontation.

And the SPD, well... is somehow in between as has lost it's grip in the eyes of the public despite enacting some good policies. Several strategic mistakes from over a decade give the rest. And, sadly, I think this is not the end. The situation for the CDU and SPD is going to deteriorate over the coming years. Forming this new "grand" coalition has been a grave mistake. Political scientist and professor Werner Patzelt explained this three weeks ago: Video (in German). I completely share his points, though I hope he's wrong.

[EPG]

It is almost always the case that governments lose support and oppositions win support. Let's say, 90% of the time, that happens?

[President Johnson]

It is almost always the case that governments lose support and oppositions win support. Let's say, 90% of the time, that happens?

Yes, in most cases, even when they get reelected. It's quite the opposite to the United States, where reelected presidents and governors usually increase their voter share. Of course, there exceptions in both cases.

[Beezer]

According to the latest "Deutschlandtrend", the AfD is now the strongest party in east Germany (27%), ahead of the CDU (23%).

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181445482/Deutschlandtrend-AfD-liegt-im-Osten-erstmals-vor-der-CDU.html

[Beezer]

[President Johnson]

Söder's downfall continues and his Armageddon is coming closer and closer. A new poll from Infratest Dimap has the CSU at an all time low for the upcoming state election in Bavaria on October 14:

CSU: 35%
Greens: 17%
SPD: 11%
AfD: 11%
Free Voters: 11%
FDP: 5%
The Left: 5%

35% for the CSU would mean a drop of over 12% compared to 2013.

Source

[Tender Branson]

Söder's downfall continues and his Armageddon is coming closer and closer. A new poll from Infratest Dimap has the CSU at an all time low for the upcoming state election in Bavaria on October 14:

CSU: 35%
Greens: 17%
SPD: 11%
AfD: 11%
Free Voters: 11%
FDP: 5%
The Left: 5%

35% for the CSU would mean a drop of over 13% compared to 2013.

Source

That's correct, but for the SPD the numbers are even bleaker: They are cut in half compared with the previous election. The 35% for the CSU and the 11% for the SPD are the lowest scores in any Bavaria polling so far.

[President Johnson]

Söder's downfall continues and his Armageddon is coming closer and closer. A new poll from Infratest Dimap has the CSU at an all time low for the upcoming state election in Bavaria on October 14:

CSU: 35%
Greens: 17%
SPD: 11%
AfD: 11%
Free Voters: 11%
FDP: 5%
The Left: 5%

35% for the CSU would mean a drop of over 13% compared to 2013.

Source

That's correct, but for the SPD the numbers are even bleaker: They are cut in half compared with the previous election. The 35% for the CSU and the 11% for the SPD are the lowest scores in any Bavaria polling so far.

Yes, the SPD numbers are disastrous. It's cut in half from 2013, which was already pretty weak. I see two main reasons: homemade problems (could write pages on this alone) and the polarization between strong immigration opponents and supporters. The AfD and Greens represent these "extremes", what explains the strong numbers for the Greens in nationalwide polling as well. And at the SPD base, a lot of people are frustrated and are not motivated any longer (including myself).

Another poll from my homestate of Baden-Württemberg that just came out has the SPD at 11% as well (2016 result was 12.7%, in 2011 it was 23%, both the lowest in history at the time). I can't talk for Bavaria, but here in Baden-Württemberg, the state party leaders are doing a terrible job. Just few people know who they are and those who do think they're out of touch with little understanding of immigration problems in addition of being way to the left on economic issues.

Nevertheless, I hope the CSU drops "low enough" that Mr. Söder has to go. Ilse Aigner would make a better MP.

[Tender Branson]

Bayern's population has passed 13 million for the first time, while Baden-Württemberg has passed 11 million:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2018/09/PD18_347_12411.html

Both states grow faster than Germany as a whole, but Berlin and Hamburg had the biggest % increases.

Data + Map:

http://www.citypopulation.de/Deutschland-Cities.html

[Ethelberth]

Are the Republikaner still existent, or has AFD eaten its electoral space.

[bigic]

They still exist, but most of their voters now vote for AfD, as it's the case for the other small parties right of CDU/CSU.

[DavidB.]

Following the events in Chemnitz, some people are now very outraged about certain people in the AfD (mostly Ossis) with "brown" politics. Perhaps they should have thought about this type of politician when they hysterically called Bernd Lucke a Nazi or a far-right populist. It's the typical story of the boy who cried Wolf. AfD has progressively radicalized, but it seems to me that someone as extreme as Höcke barely receives a different treatment than Lucke at the time, simply because AfD were branded Nazis to begin with.

[rob in cal]

  Assuming the Freie Wahler vote hold up in Bavaria, what kind of coalition partner would they be for the CSU? 

[palandio]

Most natural coalition partner regarding the overall political orientation. The only problem is that they may be too similar and that it would deprive the Freie Wähler of a part of their reason to exist.

[EPG]

Following the events in Chemnitz, some people are now very outraged about certain people in the AfD (mostly Ossis) with "brown" politics. Perhaps they should have thought about this type of politician when they hysterically called Bernd Lucke a Nazi or a far-right populist. It's the typical story of the boy who cried Wolf. AfD has progressively radicalized, but it seems to me that someone as extreme as Höcke barely receives a different treatment than Lucke at the time, simply because AfD were branded Nazis to begin with.

You're right. The liberals are to blame for this neo-Nazi story.

[Beezer]

Oh boy...

[President Johnson]

Oh boy...

Thank you Horst and Mr. Maaßen. And thank you Andrea Nahles for the great deal to make him an under secretary. This whole story was exactly why people hate politics.

[EPG]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

[Umengus]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

[Intell]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

Immigration has been at a constant rate as before and crime has been reducing.

[DavidB.]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

Immigration has been at a constant rate as before and crime has been reducing.

Exactly. That's the problem.

[Tender Branson]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

Immigration has been at a constant rate as before and crime has been reducing.

Here's the correct explanation:

Overall crime numbers are falling because they are falling by a lot among native Germans, while increasing 2-3 times over the past 10 years among foreigners. Among certain areas such as rapes etc. the increase and share of foreigners is dramatic. And immigration was/is of course the biggest reason for this development.

[Beezer]

Berlin is a good example...# of non-German criminal suspects:



Share of foreigners among all criminal suspects: