VA Early Voting #s

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I will make a general point about firms like Targetsmart and others that have projected early vote leads for either party based off inferred voter demographics since 2016 which is when I first started looking at their analysis.

They consistently overestimate how well democrats are doing in the early vote, in 2016 many of these firms suggested Clinton would win states she lost based off her early vote performance, 2020 was the same, in PA people posting on twitter who worked for these firms suggested Biden would win PA by maybe 5-6% just based off his early vote numbers because the election day vote was going to be not that large, he won by 1.2%.

Whether they overestimate democrats because of a flaw in their methodology or because all the people who work for them are democrats so they always twist the data to suit their partisan perspective is hard to say.