Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards? (user search)
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  Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards? (search mode)
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Question: Huh
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Trending more Republican
 
#4
Trending more Democratic
 
#5
Stagnant
 
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Total Voters: 119

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Author Topic: Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?  (Read 6318 times)
Annatar
Jr. Member
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Posts: 983
Australia


« on: December 02, 2020, 05:33:58 AM »

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.

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Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 983
Australia


« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2020, 09:34:38 AM »

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.



All it took was a few election cycles to debunk the Mississippi trending left narrative, including coming from Republicans.

The way I look at it, since voters in their 20’s seem to become more republican as they age into their 30’s, you can see how voters in their 20’s in 2008 are voting now, any state where republicans outright win the 18-29 vote is staying republican for decades to come unless there is a realignment.
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