I thought about Baldwin, but I actually think Ohio's other Senator, Brown, fits the bill better. I doubt he'll win by anything like 21%, but a lot of Republicans are hyping up Mandel, who, like Strickland, lost a statewide race previously (to Brown himself, no less.) Similar to how 2015 polls had Strickland ahead, the one poll we have puts Mandel ahead of Brown. I can see this race following a similar trajectory: It will look very competitive early on, with polls even giving Mandel a slight advantage, but Mandel proves to be a weak candidate, and as the election approaches, it becomes less competitive.
I agree with this. To me Mandel just
looks like a weak candidate. Losing a Senate race 6 years earlier to the same guy he's trying to challenge now isn't going to look good on him ie. "The people of Ohio already rejected Josh and they'll reject him again" or something like that.(see: Russ Feingold in 2016) He also seems to be a huge Trump loyalist. Something tells me thats the going to be the nail in his coffin in 2018 if things go like people think they are going to go.