What party carries CO-03 in 2024 on the presidential level?

[Burke Bro]

Let’s make something clear. The democratic over-performance in CO-3 in 2022 is less related to demographic trends and more related to the national Republican underperformance due to a failure to move on from Trump. The whole Tina Peters episode cannot be undersold for leaving a bad taste in a lot of voters’ mouths, not unlike what happened in Georgia. Only, Georgia Republicans under Kemp were able to redefine themselves whereas Colorado Republicans had Trump-allied election deniers and conspiracy theorists in Boebert and Ganahl as their spokespeople (yes, I know that O’Dea was against election denialism, but he was an outsider candidate who commanded little power within the state Republican Party).

Republicans are almost certain to carry CO-3 again in 2024, but if Trump is the nominee, the results could be fairly close. A similar rule applies to Boebert’s performance. If DeSantis or someone else is the nominee, voters may be far more willing to tolerate her in Congress, assuming she aligns herself with the nominee.