What party carries CO-03 in 2024 on the presidential level?

[Tekken_Guy]

What party will carry CO-03 in 2024 on the presidential level?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Polis carried it in 2022-Gov; Bennet also came very close.

However, due to Dems dependence on high propoensity ski communities and stuff, I wonder if the midterm turnout dynamics may have favored Ds here.

It was Trump + 8.3 in 2020 so not totally out of reach, but it'd require a pretty hard swing. I'm thinking the R Pres nominee narrowly holds the district, but Dems make a more serious ploy at Boebert which may be successful.

Honestly, it's really frustrating how much money MTG's challenger received relative to Boebert's considering Boebert is also a huge lightning rod in a district that's theoretically winnable for Dems.

[Red Wall]

Republicans, this seat got redder in redistricting it's just Boebert is a trainwreck and republicans are getting killed statewide in Colorado

[Alben Barkley]

Polis carried it in 2022-Gov; Bennet also came very close.

However, due to Dems dependence on high propoensity ski communities and stuff, I wonder if the midterm turnout dynamics may have favored Ds here.

It was Trump + 8.3 in 2020 so not totally out of reach, but it'd require a pretty hard swing. I'm thinking the R Pres nominee narrowly holds the district, but Dems make a more serious ploy at Boebert which may be successful.

Honestly, it's really frustrating how much money MTG's challenger received relative to Boebert's considering Boebert is also a huge lightning rod in a district that's theoretically winnable for Dems.

I wonder what goes on in the mind of a Polis/Boebert voter...

[jamestroll]

Democrats could win it but the GOP has the upper edge here.

Under old lines, I would think Biden could well carry the old district in 2024 and Frisch would have won.

Polis carried it in 2022-Gov; Bennet also came very close.

However, due to Dems dependence on high propoensity ski communities and stuff, I wonder if the midterm turnout dynamics may have favored Ds here.

It was Trump + 8.3 in 2020 so not totally out of reach, but it'd require a pretty hard swing. I'm thinking the R Pres nominee narrowly holds the district, but Dems make a more serious ploy at Boebert which may be successful.

Honestly, it's really frustrating how much money MTG's challenger received relative to Boebert's considering Boebert is also a huge lightning rod in a district that's theoretically winnable for Dems.

I wonder what goes on in the mind of a Polis/Boebert voter...

There probably weren't that many.  Just looking at Pueblo County, there was a slight undervote in the congressional race.

It was likely mostly a set of Republicans who approved of Jared Polis as governor but voted R down ballot.

Trust me.. the "Aspen Adam" imagine around Frisch was likely a hindrance for him. But he almost made it is. CO-03 is very winnable in 2024.

[seskoog]

Probably Republicans, but by only 1 or 2 points. Definitely not 8.

[Vosem]

Polis carried it in 2022-Gov; Bennet also came very close.

However, due to Dems dependence on high propoensity ski communities and stuff, I wonder if the midterm turnout dynamics may have favored Ds here.

It was Trump + 8.3 in 2020 so not totally out of reach, but it'd require a pretty hard swing. I'm thinking the R Pres nominee narrowly holds the district, but Dems make a more serious ploy at Boebert which may be successful.

Honestly, it's really frustrating how much money MTG's challenger received relative to Boebert's considering Boebert is also a huge lightning rod in a district that's theoretically winnable for Dems.

I wonder what goes on in the mind of a Polis/Boebert voter...

I might have been one; I actually really like Boebert and Polis. The thing here is that Polis's Republican opponent was also really good; the argument for voting for Polis is because he's the best Democratic Governor in the country, and I'd like to see a more agreeable Democratic party, since statistically they are going to be in power half the time. (That said, the reasons I like both Boebert and Polis don't have much to do with each other. And I probably would've voted Ganahl in the end.)

Anyway, probably Republican given that this is a place with a significant Democratic turnout advantage in midterms and it was Trump+8. Certainly winnable for the Democrats if there's a large landslide, though.

Under old lines, I would think Biden could well carry the old district in 2024 and Frisch would have won.

Beyond any doubt Frisch would've won under the old lines, actually. The redistricting gave Boebert around 2 points; without that she clearly loses.

[Suburban Republican]

Let’s make something clear. The democratic over-performance in CO-3 in 2022 is less related to demographic trends and more related to the national Republican underperformance due to a failure to move on from Trump. The whole Tina Peters episode cannot be undersold for leaving a bad taste in a lot of voters’ mouths, not unlike what happened in Georgia. Only, Georgia Republicans under Kemp were able to redefine themselves whereas Colorado Republicans had Trump-allied election deniers and conspiracy theorists in Boebert and Ganahl as their spokespeople (yes, I know that O’Dea was against election denialism, but he was an outsider candidate who commanded little power within the state Republican Party).

Republicans are almost certain to carry CO-3 again in 2024, but if Trump is the nominee, the results could be fairly close. A similar rule applies to Boebert’s performance. If DeSantis or someone else is the nominee, voters may be far more willing to tolerate her in Congress, assuming she aligns herself with the nominee.

[TheReckoning]

Polis carried it in 2022-Gov; Bennet also came very close.

However, due to Dems dependence on high propoensity ski communities and stuff, I wonder if the midterm turnout dynamics may have favored Ds here.

It was Trump + 8.3 in 2020 so not totally out of reach, but it'd require a pretty hard swing. I'm thinking the R Pres nominee narrowly holds the district, but Dems make a more serious ploy at Boebert which may be successful.

Honestly, it's really frustrating how much money MTG's challenger received relative to Boebert's considering Boebert is also a huge lightning rod in a district that's theoretically winnable for Dems.

I wonder what goes on in the mind of a Polis/Boebert voter...

I actually really like Boebert.

Why? What’s there to like?

[jamestroll]

It seems every time I move somewhere it becomes big political news in one way or another.

Anyway, I love living in the area.  But far to many WHITE people here. The only thing I like WHITE is snow.