2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

The constitutional language re: the legislative maps is even more aggressive and the state courts literally struck down the last set of legislative maps.  If anything, the congressional map is where they have more latitude.  I guess another important question is how much do they need Beshear on other issues?  Despite simple majority veto override, I believe the KY governor do a lot by executive order/unilateral appointment to various commissions.  I recall that Beshear Sr. was able to do Medicaid expansion by executive order and Bevin was able to modify/partially repeal it despite the split legislative control.  That is beyond the governor's authority in most states.

State courts struck down the last maps for being too Dem friendly?

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

What do they have to lose?  Worst case the map gets struck down and you get a 5-1 like we have now. https://davesredistricting.org/join/f4830a07-e393-40cf-94a3-2c1982cc47d2 5 R-1 tossup map.  1 county split, districts within 1% population of each other, no 2 R incumbents live in the same district, least red republican district is R+14 and heavily polarized between rural areas and a little slice of urban Louisville.  Barr gets an R+15 seat, never faces a competitive race again.  The only competitive district is now Yarmuth's, who now has to run in an R+3 district.  A 9 point shift right according to PVI.  It is a McCain-Romney-Trump seat.  Yarmuth isn't doomed since he overperforms, but now Dems have to put resources there instead of elsewhere. He could also very well lose.

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

I don't see how you can make the legal argument that two districts leaving Jefferson and entering other counties isn't excessive splitting when it only has to be 1 district that leaves Jefferson. 

Because Jeffco is still only split once.  A district containing multiple counties isn't a split.

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district.  

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.    

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible.  

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

Sound advice for Kentucky Republicans, especially those in the House.  

No matter now the leg maps are they will be R super majority.  Even a Dem gerrymander couldn't stop that.  The only real fight is Louisville.