It's election day in bama- roughly describe how you view the state of the race

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Toss-up. Tilt-Jones.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trolling deleted. -Mod

So now my predictions are trolling? I'm not just posting that to get reactions, its what I believe.

You cannot seriously believe that Roy Moore is going to win by the same margin over Jones as Trump did over Clinton. not even the most hardcore Moore supporters would say something like that.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones, the Democrat, will defeat Moore, the disgusting Republican, by about 1.4 points in a ca. 35-45% turnout election.

Mostly because AL voters will take a breath in the voting booth, remember that AL's image is at stake and vote for Jones.

I hope you're right here... I'm personally predicting that Jones will win by <2%, but Moore could just as easily win by high single digits. I'm really uncertain about the outcome, due to the huge variation in the polls.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'll predict a few counties that will be interesting to watch the margins.

Jefferson County

Jones: 65%
Moore: 32%

Montgomery County

Jones: 72%
Moore: 26%

Mobile County

Jones: 57%
Moore: 40%

Madison County

Jones: 55%
Moore: 41%

Shelby County

Moore: 60%
Jones: 37%

Baldwin County

Moore: 63%
Jones: 34%

Lee County

Jones: 49%
Moore: 48%

Tuscaloosa County

Jones: 56%
Moore: 39%

As far as compared to a race in Alabama in the past, I expect we'll see some of the accelerated trends from the 2016 election, like with the Virginia gubernatorial race. The whole state will obviously swing Democratic but metropolitan areas should be the strongest and rural areas with low incomes and educational levels should be least. Of course, it's Alabama, so the effect won't be that strong. I could be wrong though and this might be more like Louisiana 2015. There's no way to be sure.

Those numbers seem like a comfortable Jones victory, provided the more rural areas have a decent swing towards Jones too. We'll see.

This is closer to a tie/bare Jones win if we assume the rest of the state is swinging by margins comparable to 2012 Supreme Court...perhaps with the exception of Birmingham (I'd put it at 60% or so in a tied race in such a scenario)

I'd personally give Jones 67-68% in Jefferson County, if he's going to be winning statewide. the other numbers seem accurate though.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I chose "Jones with a solid lead (5 or more)", and I don't think this race is very competitive anymore at this point.

I'm very cautious, but I hope you're right. there's a lot of uncertainty IMO.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

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What fundamentals have changed vs the Trump base of support in Alabama? Just not seeing it. HillDawg poured a ton of money.

WHAT???