Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

My most recent map of approval and disapproval. The most recent changers involve Virginia, New York, and Pennsylvania.  

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

There's a real opportunity for McMullin to run again as an Indy in 2020 and win Utah, if Trump's approval there doesn't improve between now and then.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

California - USC Dornsife/LA Times (Oct 27 - Nov 6)


"Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States?"
Approve: 22% (11% strongly approve)
Disapprove: 66% (58% strongly disapprove)
N/A: 11%

"What is your impression of Donald Trump?"
Favorable: 20% (9% very favorable)
Unfavorable: 65% (51% very unfavorable)
N/A: 15%


Article

Full Methodology/results

Crosstabs (Pages 14-16 for job approval)

CA = Freedom state

Is there a possibility that the Democrat nominee could win California by the biggest margin yet in 2020?

There's certainly room for the Democratic nominee to squeeze out at least a million more votes, especially if Trump is really unpopular or Harris is the nominee.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup, 12/1

Approve 33 (-1)
Disapprove 62 (+2)


This equals Trump's worst-ever numbers in Gallup on both ends. 

After being mostly stable for a few weeks, movement over the last few days has been very bad for Trump:

11/28: 38/55 (-17)
11/29: 36/57 (-21)
11/30: 34/60 (-26)
12/1: 33/62 (-29)

It's still a little too early to say whether this is a real trend.  Gallup uses a 3-day rolling average, so one or two very good or bad samples can have effects that last a few days.  If it still looks like this next week, then I'd be willing to call it a trend.

Either way, these are some stunning numbers.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup, 12/6

Approve 37 (+1)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

Mostly stagnant.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Poll from November in MN had Trump at 31/54

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9ed21a28-1db6-466c-9cf1-dd22afcd5f9f

Yeah, Minnesota is probably Safe D in 2020.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Obamacare had an impact in 2012. Major legislation has impacts.

Obviously.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

At this point, approval and favorability can't be far off from each other.

Colorado, Keating Research. 35-64 favorable.unfavorable.  The unfavorable figure was 55% in March.

Others: Senators Bennett (D) 57%, Gardner (R)
44% favorability.

California, Public Policy Institute
Nov 10-19 (Last poll Sept. 27)

All adults
Trump approval: 28% (+1)
Trump disapproval: 68% (-1)
Undecided: 5% (+1)

Likely voters
Trump approval: 34% (+3)
Trump disapproval: 63% (-3)
Undecided: 3%

P.S. -- I have been polled in Michigan. It is a favorability poll, but it is hard to distinguish the meaning between favorability and approval at this point.

Using "likely voters" for California...  

An update on Colorado. I would rather would rather see an approval poll for some other state, but here I have an approval poll of Colorado that supplants a favorability poll.  PPP, which does a great quantity of statewide  polling and of a wider variety of states than anyone else, has the President's approval at 36% and disapproval at 56%. I prefer approval or some other measure of achievement as opposed to liking and disliking.  The difference between apples and oranges, that is between unfavorability by one pollster and disapproval by another is huge, and the 64% unfavorable rating of the older poll could have been an exaggeration. Between favorability and approval the difference is really slight.

55% disapproval is utterly awful in what has usually been understood as a swing state since the 1990s. Maybe Colorado isn't a swing state anymore. Or is it? This isn't far from some national tracking polls. Colorado may not be the problem for Donald Trump.     

Colorado, PPP: approval 36%, disapproval 56%

 
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ColoradoPoll121117.pdf

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

Wait, why is he so popular in Louisiana?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/12/14/iowa-poll-60-percent-iowans-disapprove-donald-trumps-job-performance/945229001/

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

B-but I was told Iowa is now as red as Vermont in the 1930s???

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

I'm glad folks in Iowa are coming to their senses, but honestly, what made Iowans into Trump supporters to begin with? It's strange that the state that launched Obama's political career went for the birther candidate eight years later. And what exactly do they not like about the Trump presidency? He's governing exactly as he campaigned..

Both Clinton and Trump were terrible fits for Iowa. Bernie probably would of carried Iowa by a fair margin.

On this I agree with you. Sanders would have done much better than Clinton in mostly white states like Iowa and Wisconsin, but would've done worse in more diverse states.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

What
Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think Trump will get a bump may take a few days but he might get back into the 42-45% range.

This was the most unpopular tax plan in the history of polling (According to FiveThirtyEight). Only 33% of Americans support it and CNN had an article about it becoming even less popular by the day. There will be no bump. Are you LimoLiberal's sock puppet?

Well, they're both concern trolls from Virginia...

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

Future blue state Arkansas.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup

Disapprove 57 (-1)
Approve 38 (+2)

up a net five points in the last two days


TAX REFORM BUMP

lol

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

He's getting a legimate, huge, TAX REFORM BUMP on Gallup. Up 8 net points in the last three days.

Just... stop.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

MT treasurer must be salivating over this poll.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Agreed. Also look for red wave in 2018 on the heels of the Tax Reform Bump.

There. Is. No. Tax. Reform. Bump. You. F***ing. Moron.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

You sound very out of touch with the average american voter.

Cutting spending would hurt Trump's approvals. The average american loves tax cuts and loves government spending. How the hell would cutting spending make Trump's approvals go up. People (unfortunately) hardly care about the national debt.

Just look at how the Obamacare repeal went. At some point, the approval for that health care plan was 20% approval 60% disapproval.

LOL every red avatar in here was out of touch with the "average American voter" a year ago, predicting Hillary landslides.

I wasn't.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

He went back down to 45% in today's Ras.

Rasmussen is junk regardless.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup, 12/29

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

And that's not even factoring in the Iran Protest Surge that's going to happen! Wow. Tax Reform Bump + Iran Protest Surge = Republican Wave!

Yeah, his disapproval is down a single point. TAX REFORM BUMP!!!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup 12/30

Approve: 40% (+2)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)

Trump's highest approval in Gallup since 9/23.

Inb4 LimoLiberal shows up with his TAX REFORM BUMP.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup 12/30

Approve: 40% (+2)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)

Trump's highest approval in Gallup since 9/23.

Inb4 LimoLiberal shows up with his TAX REFORM BUMP.

The tax reform SURGE is real.

Don't forget the Iran protest surge!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup 12/30

Approve: 40% (+2)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)

Trump's highest approval in Gallup since 9/23.

It really is depressing that people out there don't care more about our Constitution and principles being stomped over every day. Or Trump profiteering on the presidency, and so on. Its sick.

Trump’s net worth has decreased by $1 billion since he announced his candidacy.

He donates his salary.

Compare this to the Clintons, who made HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS during Slick Willy’s presidency.

You were saying?

It's practically 2018, and you guys are still going on about CLINTUN. It's old.

Are you not aware of the massive double standard you have here, though? I have actual evidence, unlike you, to prove my claims. You don’t. Seek help.

I didn't see him make any claims...

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A story from the Salt Lake City Tribune in discussing a US House race shows that the approval of Donald Trump statewide in Utah  is at 48% (Dan Jones Polling). Nothing is said of the disapproval rating.

It's probably something like 48-46 Approve.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump Approval: State By State for 2017

State: Approve-Disapprove

National: 38-56

West Virginia: 61-35
North Dakota: 57-39
Wyoming: 57-36
South Dakota: 54-42
Alabama: 53-42
Oklahoma: 53-40
Idaho: 53-42
Montana: 52-45
Kentucky: 51-45
Tennessee: 50-44
Arkansas: 50-44
Alaska: 50-44
Nebraska: 49-47
Louisiana: 49-45
Kansas: 48-47
South Carolina: 48-46
Mississippi: 48-46
Utah: 48-47
Missouri: 47-48
Ohio: 45-50
Indiana: 44-51
Iowa: 43-52
Maine: 42-55
New Hampshire: 42-56
Pennsylvania: 42-53
Nevada: 42-53
Wisconsin: 41-55
Georgia: 41-53
Florida: 41-53
Arizona: 41-53
Michigan: 40-55
North Carolina: 40-54
Texas: 39-54
Minnesota: 37-58
Virginia: 37-57
Colorado: 37-59
Delaware: 36-58
Oregon: 36-59
New Mexico: 35-59
New Jersey: 34-61
Washington: 34-60
Illinois: 33-62
Rhode Island: 32-62
Connecticut: 31-63
New York: 30-63
Maryland: 30-65
California: 29-65
Hawaii: 29-60
Massachusetts: 27-68
Vermont: 26-69
District of Columbia: 6-88

Source

If these numbers hold, Trump will lose by double digits in 2020.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 43%
Disapproval: 56%
These are great numbers for Trump, if you take his 43% approval and combine it with those that lie to pollsters but really support him, he’s in perfect position to win the Electoral College and possibly even the popular vote as well.

We've seen no evidence that people who support Trump lie to pollsters, and on top of this, I'm sure you realize Rasmussen is a very R-leaning, and generally poor, pollster. also lol at -13 being a good approval rating for Trump coming from an R-leaning pollster.