But of course this is more a reflection of Cruz than it is anything else. Should O'Rourke win he and Doug Jones are gonna have the two hottest seats in the Senate.
O'Rourke's lead is in large part driven by Cruz, but he's in a very different situation that Doug Jones.
Doug Jones is an incumbent in a Trump+29 state which is not trending towards Democrats.
Beto O'Rourke would be an incumbent in a Trump+8 that is trending towards Democrats. If you look at the crosstabs, you can also see an enormous age gap. In six years, that means that O'Rourke's base will be a lot bigger. Also, it's pretty likely that 2024 is a democratic election nationwide, and incumbency still gives him some advantage. I think that a good R nominee in 2024 might win, but O'Rourke has a much less narrow path to thread for re-election that Jones.
