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Author Topic: Political Trends where you disagree with the Atlas Consensus  (Read 10549 times)
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,480


« on: August 31, 2017, 07:08:46 PM »

Who thinks the Democrats are going to become populist and libertarian at the same time? That's so stupid that I can't even wrap my head around the thinking there.
There are some people who think the democrats will become populist.There are some people who think the democrats will become libertarian. There are some people who think the democrats might become either. But I think extreme republican is mixing them up.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2017, 10:25:43 AM »

-Generation Z will be conservative (relative to millenials? Maybe, but not conservative as a whole)

Why would the most diverse generation in history, having their political awakening during the Age of Trump, be more conservative?

Generation Z will be just as liberal as millennials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2017/08/11/why-democrats-should-be-losing-sleep-over-generation-z/

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/07/13/prof-gen-z-more-conservative-millennials/

http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/

https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/eric-metaxas/next-generation-americans-gen-z-may-be-most-conservative-wwii

There are many more out there.

Diversity doesn't mean "not conservative."  The NY Post one (I think it was that one) even said that the generation will be more socially tolerant than others, even as it is conservative.
Your sources are terrible.
They are
1. A marketing company in a foreign country with a study I cannot find.

2. The opinion of a professor.

3. The opinions of the same professor and an interview with a random teenager.

4. The same study, and a poll of teenagers.

Teenagers have highly voalitile political opinions. Most people tend to have lifelong voting patterns based on what party is more popular when they enter adulthood. Trump isn't going to help with that.
From that, I'd guess people born from
1996-1997: Lean R
1998-2005: Solid D
2006-2011: Lean D
2012-2019: Lean R. The younger half of the generation will be part of any republican majorities
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2017, 05:10:06 PM »

Florida will trend D because of the Republicans' constant struggle to take away benefits for older people, immigrants, and their new protectionist policies. This alienates old people, young people (young Cuban-Americans have turned sharply D since 2008, and Puerto Ricans are flooding into the state given the commonwealth's recent troubles), and free trader conservatives.

It remains to be seen if your first claim will "last."  Trump can talk all he want, but the fact is that the "free trader conservatives" vastly outnumber the protectionists among elected Republicans, even in the age of Trump.
Elected seems to be the key word here. The base of the republican party is not pro free trade anymore.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2017, 09:43:10 AM »

Florida will trend D because of the Republicans' constant struggle to take away benefits for older people, immigrants, and their new protectionist policies. This alienates old people, young people (young Cuban-Americans have turned sharply D since 2008, and Puerto Ricans are flooding into the state given the commonwealth's recent troubles), and free trader conservatives.

It remains to be seen if your first claim will "last."  Trump can talk all he want, but the fact is that the "free trader conservatives" vastly outnumber the protectionists among elected Republicans, even in the age of Trump.
Elected seems to be the key word here. The base of the republican party is not pro free trade anymore.

How do you know the GOP base ever was?  Also, it's at the VERY most equally as protectionist as the Democratic base, right?
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/support-for-free-trade-agreements-rebounds-modestly-but-wide-partisan-differences-remain/. Not anymore. The republican base is not more pro free trade than democrats now.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2017, 10:10:49 PM »

Florida will trend D because of the Republicans' constant struggle to take away benefits for older people, immigrants, and their new protectionist policies. This alienates old people, young people (young Cuban-Americans have turned sharply D since 2008, and Puerto Ricans are flooding into the state given the commonwealth's recent troubles), and free trader conservatives.

It remains to be seen if your first claim will "last."  Trump can talk all he want, but the fact is that the "free trader conservatives" vastly outnumber the protectionists among elected Republicans, even in the age of Trump.
Elected seems to be the key word here. The base of the republican party is not pro free trade anymore.

How do you know the GOP base ever was?  Also, it's at the VERY most equally as protectionist as the Democratic base, right?
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/support-for-free-trade-agreements-rebounds-modestly-but-wide-partisan-differences-remain/. Not anymore. The republican base is not more pro free trade than democrats now.

I know you can read, I said the Democratic BASE.
What?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2018, 10:36:48 PM »

There were some republican house voters who would have split for Clinton in a binary race.
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