Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Cactus Jack]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

Not to toot my own horn or detract from your point, but I called exactly that.

[Cactus Jack]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

One more thing to consider is that most of the firms that have polled this race have been inconsistent, complete garbage, or both. Fox News has been the only reputable pollster in Alabama for the last month.

In any case, my final verdict on the race is this: I refuse to believe any of the polling, be it in Moore's direction or Jones', and will only buy into the final results. And even if my instinct that Jones will win is proven wrong, IceSpear will still be trash.

[Cactus Jack]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

It's like he's trying to lose the female vote two-to-one.

[Cactus Jack]

Alabama SoS says interest in write-in voting has been "extraordinary".

Now that's interesting.

[Cactus Jack]

So I had a dream about this election last night. It's a bit hazy but I'll write down what I remember:

There weren't any more bombshells or scandals emerging between yesterday and election night. Polling was scattered, similar to VA-Gov. Everybody was very cautious.

I'm reading tweets about turnout projections, which are staggeringly low, etc. It's blamed on the weather, overcast with predictions of heavy rain.

Then in the afternoon, which looked like evening because it was dark, there's breaking news on NBC about several incidents of white-hooded KKK rallies at polling sites in the Black Belt and Ivey was calling the National Guard to help protect voters.

Obviously atlas was saying that Jones is doomed.

Then I don't remember much in the hours that followed, but when polls closed, there were reports of long lines in Black Belt precincts and in Montgomery, Birmingham, and Huntsville. Some tweet by some politico said that the Jones campaign spent a lot of its remaining money on buying and distributing umbrellas to people who were coming to the polls.

So now the interesting part: whoops, this was hazy. I woke up before the results were finalized, but I remember that the map on NBC had Madison, Mobile, and one of the SE Alabama counties be (non-atlas) blue.

Let's hope this turns out to be a corny Stephen King-style premonition.

[Cactus Jack]

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
WaPo poll of #ALSEN: Jones 50, Moore 47.  Awfully consistent with the internals I've been hearing about.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/936944294090477573

I thought Republican internals showed Moore to lose in a landslide, like the one by NRSC.

That's the only thing you've decided to take from this poll?

[Cactus Jack]

If Jones wins, it’ll be a narrow victory. I imagine there’ll be some sort of legal challenge and, whether there is or not, the process of certification will suddenly find itself encountering all sorts of holdups and snags. Jones may not be seated before the midterms (if Merrick Garland could be kept off SCOTUS for a year - effectively for ever - anything is doable).

Tin foil hat much? If the margin is less than 0.5% there will be an automatic recount. If not, there won't be and the winner will be certified like any other election.

Of all the scorching hot takes in this cosmic bastard of a thread, OP's may be the hottest. I'm at risk of a heat stroke-induced brain hemorrhage.

[Cactus Jack]

If Jones wins, it’ll be a narrow victory. I imagine there’ll be some sort of legal challenge and, whether there is or not, the process of certification will suddenly find itself encountering all sorts of holdups and snags. Jones may not be seated before the midterms (if Merrick Garland could be kept off SCOTUS for a year - effectively for ever - anything is doable).

Tin foil hat much? If the margin is less than 0.5% there will be an automatic recount. If not, there won't be and the winner will be certified like any other election.

Of all the scorching hot takes in this cosmic bastard of a thread, OP's may be the hottest. I'm at risk of a heat stroke-induced brain hemorrhage.

Might as well get it out of the way now cuz you're gonna be really disappointed on Election Night 2018 if you think Dems are gonna make solid net gains in the Senate.

PNM, I like and respect you, but if you're going to start Chicken Littling about the election as a whole, I'll happily put you on ignore until November.

[Cactus Jack]

If it was up to the people, Alabama would still be segregated.

It's actually harder than it should be to argue against that when the overall schooling trend seems to be re-segregation, although admittedly for reasons more complex than just brown/black people.

Actually, no, it really is as simple as brown/black people. But I'm sure Saint will come by telling me I'm an SJW for stating the obvious even though my PM social score is to the right of his.

Am I the guy you’re gonna continually reference in every post now?

Only when he's not coming after me for pointing out the obvious fact that IceSpear is a tool, apparently.

[Cactus Jack]

I agree with the posters elsewhere that a Democrat wave is building.  That danger is the final reason to support Moore. The GOP has things to accomplish, especially regarding the courts.  We cannot allow another Democrat in now, who will try to screw up the works.  

I want the courts to at least give me and the country protection from some of the thinking of some hard left Democrats.

Pedophiles: at least they're not Democrats.

He is not a pedophile.  If they occurred, they were 40 years ago.  A person can be forgiven for acts 40 years.  The GOP if it wakes up can expel him he lied about the yearbook.  The proof would come handwriting analysis not DNA analysis.

A person cannot be forgiven for child molestation, especially when they refuse to admit what happened.

*******************************************

(can't wait to get death points for this message. worth it.)

I'm preserving this one. I don't care if I get slapped for it.

[Cactus Jack]

I say this again: the absolute worst thing Moore could have done for himself in the final week was showing his face.

[Cactus Jack]

Mitt Romney @MittRomney
Roy Moore in the US Senate would be a stain on the GOP and on the nation. Leigh Corfman and other victims are courageous heroes. No vote, no majority is worth losing our honor, our integrity.
4:44 PM · Dec 4, 2017

https://mobile.twitter.com/mittromney/status/937799838082781186

It's like Trump happened and Romney all at once reverted from his Tea Party superhero persona back into Massachusetts Mitt.

[Cactus Jack]

I say this again: the absolute worst thing Moore could have done for himself in the final week was showing his face.

Makes sense....so many of his accusers can see him again and come out of the shadows

That, and Moore has a lifelong history of sticking his foot in his mouth every time he opens it. Now is an especially lethal time for that to play out, because Moore's poll numbers were actually improving while he was skulking in obscurity the last three weeks.

[Cactus Jack]

Jeff Coggin in.

The more WI candidates who enter, the better. That being said, this guy is so Some Dude you can't even find him on Google.

[Cactus Jack]

"When you see me with a gun, I’ll be climbing in and out of a deer blind, not prancing around on a stage in a cowboy suit.”

This may be Jones' funniest burn yet.

[Cactus Jack]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

[Cactus Jack]

crap. doug is going down-
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/dec/06/doug-jones/jones-ad-wrongly-attacks-moore-sex-crime-case/

You're deluding yourself if you think the average Alabaman reads PolitiFact.

[Cactus Jack]

crap. doug is going down-
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/dec/06/doug-jones/jones-ad-wrongly-attacks-moore-sex-crime-case/

You're deluding yourself if you think the average Alabaman reads PolitiFact.

you're deluding yourself if you think fox news will not extensively cover this

Hasn't Fox been avoiding Moore like the plague? They have better things to do, in any case, like trying to convince people Trump isn't a criminal.