AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Cactus Jack]

Sinema MATCHED Flake on fundraising in Q3 (a report that was due just 2 days after she announced her senate intentions) largely meaning she will be out raising Flake for the majority of Financial quarters in this race. Even Kirkpatrick managed to out fundraise McCain during two financial quarters if memory serves.

Sinema has roughly 5.5x more cash on hand than what Kirkpatrick had at this point, and running against an opponent that has a third the name recognition and donor base & just sucks at fundraising in general.

Sinema is waaaaaaaay stronger than Rosen

Yeah, this confirms my suspicions. Sinema is a master political operator, and she wouldn't have jumped into this race if she hadn't smelled blood in the water. The truth of the matter is that, as a candidate, she outstrips Flake and Ward in every category: charisma, campaigning, and cash.

[Cactus Jack]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

Actually, they're more likely to just straight-up not vote at all. Ward draws most of her hardcore support from the sort of doomsday prepper fruit bats who make up Paul Gosar's voter base, and you have to believe firsthand experience when I tell you that Ward-Gosar types are exactly the sort of people who would spoil an election out of spite.

Also, to answer your question: yes, Ward really is that bad. Ernst is a little nutty, to say the least, but Ward is...well, forgive me, but a hateful, fanatical bitchbag. Just look into her comments about McCain's GBM diagnosis for proof.

[Cactus Jack]

At this point I honestly think chemtrail Kelli Ward is a slight favorite to become the newest senator from Arizona

God fking help us all

You wildly, wildly underestimate Sinema and overestimate how much Arizonans like Ward.

[Cactus Jack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbtUGsEIAkA

Color little Arizonan me thoroughly shocked and awed. I never thought he would do it. I'm pretty sure this clears the field for Ward, since all the remaining high-profile candidates are either fellow Trumpists and Tea Partiers or Martha McSally, who I'm almost certain is waiting for McCain's seat to open.

[Cactus Jack]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

That may be premature. It was getting to the point that Flake was almost the worse GE candidate, and the guarantee of a brutal Republican primary was part of what gave Sinema such a good chance. Now, unless a credible establishment Republican jumps in, Ward is going to sail to the GE just as easily as Sinema and end up in better shape for it (at least relatively; I don't think Kelli F**king Ward will ever actually be in good shape in this state).

[Cactus Jack]

This is very clearly good for the Republicans. Flake was going to lose his primary and Ward was going to get Mourdock'd.

Now, any of McSally, Gosar, Schweikert, or Franks can jump in and handle a joke candidate like Ward.

Franks is an idiot with the personality of a sapient trout and Gosar and Schweikert are legitimately just as insane as Ward.

[Cactus Jack]

Please do not compare vaginas to that loser, they don't deserve it.

Alright, fair enough. I apologize to vagina-havers everywhere.

[Cactus Jack]

I'm finding it hilarious that Republicans on here are trying to spin this as a positive news story for them....lol.

Are you kidding me? This is the best news I've heard all week!

Okay...so you would rather have an open seat than a R-incumbent in a Trump midterm???

I don't care how awful Flake was,  you don't want open seats in a midterm,  it's a bad, negative thing for Republicans no matter how you spin it.

Don't try to reason with losers.

[Cactus Jack]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

[Cactus Jack]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

[Cactus Jack]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

Can you please elaborate on this?

Demographics are shifting, Hispanic Arizonans are becoming politically active, our young voters are starting to care, and the great suburban exodus away from Trump has taken hold here, too. The fact is, nutty Arizona pols like Gosar, Brewer, Arpaio, and Ward (and nutty national pols like Trump) are losing influence because the modern metropolitan Arizonan just doesn't like the way they've taken the Republican Party.

I don't doubt that the state is changing. That's why I think the race is a toss up, not lean R or higher. Dems seem to be spiking the football in this thread very prematurely though. It's a common trend.

Fair enough. I can only share what I know of our demographics and trends, and what most Arizonans think of the likes of Ward.

[Cactus Jack]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

It's very likely going to be Gallego vs. McSally when McCain's seat opens up. I've heard tell that they're both waiting for it, and it makes sense. Both parties are going to need to run veterans for what may be the ultimate veteran's seat.

[Cactus Jack]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

It's very likely going to be Gallego vs. McSally when McCain's seat opens up. I've heard tell that they're both waiting for it.

What if McSally loses reelection 2018?

That's sort of the variable that the above scenario rides on, yeah. McSally is a fairly solid incumbent and will most likely face a flagrant carpetbagger come 2018, but her district isn't very friendly territory any more. If she loses, I honestly can't say who the AZGOP would run to replace McCain, because McSally is really the only one with a comparable profile.

Now, when it comes to McSally trying to challenge Ward, I highly doubt she goes for it, and it'd be a mistake if she did. She's a decent incumbent for Tucson and not a terrifically awful human being, but she isn't a terrifically charismatic human being, either. Also, Trump would never endorse her.

[Cactus Jack]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

I'm glad someone's with me on that.

[Cactus Jack]

This is good news for the Republican Party.

A Ward blowout in the primary over Flake or a brutal primary fight would have helped Sinema immensely. Now that's not happening. I have it moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, but that's based on the assumption that Ward wins her primary. If she doesn't, it's Tilts Democratic at best, and honestly probably a tossup.

Jeff Flake, while I won't particularly miss you, (you pissed me off in Manchin-Toomey and you only pretend to be anti-Trump while doing jack squat) I hope you lead a happy and fulfilling life once your time in the Senate is done.

I am sorry to say but you're wrong - the GOP will be fine in 2018.

Expect a 7-9 point victory for either Ward or Dewit.

I could be wrong about my overall characterization of the 2018 midterms. There are two assumptions I'm using that lead to my Leans Democratic characterization.

1. 2018 will be a bad year overall for the Republican Party.

This is based on Trump's approval rating, generic ballot numbers, and historical trends. Midterms are almost always bad for the party in power. The only exceptions in the last half century were after a botched impeachment and 9/11. Even Reagan had two bad midterms. Remember that in the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP was less popular than Obama. Didn't matter. So in that kind of national environment, Sinema is probably favored in Arizona, especially for an open seat.

2. Kelly Ward fits a pattern of failed GOP Senate candidates, and would be the underdog even if the national environment favored the GOP.

This does NOT apply to DeWitt. But Ward strikes many of the same chords as Sharon Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, et cetera. Angle lost in Nevada even in the Tea Party Wave, against Harry Reid.

2016 changed nothing when it comes to GOP senate candidates. Almost every GOP win on the Senatorial level was with an incumbent, and Todd Young is no Richard Murdock.

Don't bother

[Cactus Jack]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

Do you need to really need to ask?

[Cactus Jack]

Guys, do you actually think debating with a user named "60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED" is going to yield any success or insight? I mean, and believe it or not but I say this with no malice intended, but ahugecat is exceedingly arrogant and stubborn in his opinions. There is literally nothing to be gained by arguing with him except if you wish to see more than one version of his argument.

and ahugecat please keep in mind that these are open discussion threads for everyone and not just one or two users to monopolize conversation and/or derail the thread entirely.

What can I say, pissing him off is super-funny.

[Cactus Jack]

WOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

I check this forum 3 times a day to see if it has any new post as I love discussing local politics. The ONE DAY I was flying home from Florida when news broke, landed, phone died, when I recharged it and read my can notification I screamed because I needed more information asap.

I hope I don't kill the thread for the night as I usually do

but my input is I GUARANTEE Mcsally makes an announcement within the next 48 hours. She's the only one with the fundraising numbers.

Wouldn't she struggle in a primary though

That's putting it lightly. She's unobtrusive, but that translates to being boring, and as I stated previously Trump will never endorse her.

[Cactus Jack]

WOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

I check this forum 3 times a day to see if it has any new post as I love discussing local politics. The ONE DAY I was flying home from Florida when news broke, landed, phone died, when I recharged it and read my can notification I screamed because I needed more information asap.

I hope I don't kill the thread for the night as I usually do

but my input is I GUARANTEE Mcsally makes an announcement within the next 48 hours. She's the only one with the fundraising numbers.

Wouldn't she struggle in a primary though

she does have an outstanding military record, GOP base loves that. BUT, Kelli Ward's following has grown MASSIVE, do not underestimate that lady and her followers just bc she held 1 downhill on chemtrails.

Ward has had ALL the momentum and this could really help her even more.

She's the strongest possible challenger to Sinema, but the problem is she has ZERO name rec in the PHX metro allowing Sinema to be able to define her first, like what Mccains did to Kirky in '16. So I still Give Sinema the edge, more now than ever.

With McSally in, her seat tilts D (Hopefully for Heinz)

If Sinema really wanted to rat, she could just run ads in the stupid party's primary thanking McSally for refusing to support Trump against Hillary, and to stand strong against far right Kelli Ward

That is exactly the sort of thing Sinema would actually do.

[Cactus Jack]

I am seeing Arizona operatives praise Gosar, Dewitt, and Graham. Gosar was out previously, but flake's decision to flake could change that. Any of these candidates would beat Ward and more easily defeat Sinema.

Gosar is an asshole, Graham is a goofball, and DeWit has the personality and intellect of a fish.

In other words, no.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

Atlas seriously overestimates DeWit. Nobody in Ducey's administration is a bright bulb, and DeWit is no exception.

[Cactus Jack]

DeWit and Brnovich are on opposite ends of the scale here. DeWit is the only pol in Arizona I could see with a chance of beating Ward, but Sinema would walk right through him just the same as all the other hard-righties in the state. Brnovich, on the other hand, is a vastly better, more widely-appealing GE candidate (he made headlines not long ago for suing the Arizona Board of Regents for hiking tuitions for no good reason), but there's not a chance in hell he makes it through Ward's Great Wall of Trumpists, especially if McSally runs and splits the vote of relative sanity.

There's another issue here, too. While Brnovich would probably do a lot to shave away Sinema's base of moderates and independents, Kamala has it right: Ward's ungodly coalition of Trumpists, Tea Partiers, and doomsday prep types are all exactly the sort of voters who would completely sit out the general election if their candidate were to lose the primary.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

I may not be a fan of Sinema, but she’d beat DeWit like a red-headed stepchild.

I can vouch for this. Ward, at least, is more insane and spiteful than she is stupid - she has a certain species of bizarro charisma and intelligence, which is why she has the narrowest of opportunities to win the seat outright. DeWit, on the other hand, has none of the above; he's a boring idiot.

[Cactus Jack]

And here we see why Flake bowing out had the potential to open up an electoral catastrophe for Republicans.

[Cactus Jack]

And here we see why Flake bowing out had the potential to open up an electoral catastrophe for Republicans.

There is no greater electoral catastrophe historically, then the Republican establishment riding the flaming wreck of the Hindenburg all the way to the ground backing flawed incumbents.

Had Dick Lugar retired, there never would have been Mourdock as the nominee, nor Donnelly as Senator.

You can't know that for sure. The Tea Party was powerful at that time, and Ward's meteoric rise recently shows that it still has a hold in Arizona as well. Flake's retirement has put the AZGOP establishment in an even worse position than it was in already (which, believe me, is no mean feat), because all of their big-name options are either just as weak as Flake or even worse.