Primaries to watch Tuesday (5/14/24)- Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

[Oryxslayer]

I'd add a few things:

MD-Sen D: may have a ideological divide, but that's not the crucial thing. The big distinction is in terms of approach. Alsobrooks someone who has done the work, made the allies, and comes from the party. Trone has none of that, and never bothered with it cause cash can be wielded as a sledgehammer when you have enough of it. There's also the racial and geographic divides, cause those are very much things in MD primaries. Trone will dominate his district - though there are few Dem voters outside of northern Montgomery and Frederick, and Alsobrooks will sweep the much more vote rich PG county.

The more interesting thing is from the perspective of academic studies. The Alsobrooks campaign decided to attempt a targeted appeal that basically surrendered all ad space until the just recently. Advertising like normal would just see their appeal get buried by Trone's millions, so instead the campaign dedicated ads mainly to this period before the election. Obviously there are efforts besides just ads that are taking place below the surface, but the result paired with the contrast in strategy will be an excellent future case study.


WV-Sen D: I could cite numerous examples of how the the so-called 'rural progressive' approach isn't a thing. But that doesn't mean the race isn't interesting. There are plenty of past examples because in uber-GOP areas (and Rs in Uber-Dem ones) the only people who bother to show up for the Dem primary usually are the die-hard most committed. People who won't ever think of registering just to participate in the others primary, even though that would give them more influence. Their little known but ideologically pure candidate then goes on to lose by something close to the partisan baseline. Shrewsbury's candidacy is a test of whether West Virginia has hit that point. Given how many present Republican voters here though still possess Dem registrations - and this fact likely gives Blakenship more of an in - I doubt the state has reached this point of perpetual party isolation, but it may have.

WV-GOV R: It has been pegged less as a fight of ideology and more family dynasties. Which is reminiscent of southern states in the recent past. When those who were with the GOP even when it was losing suddenly are the beneficiaries of a national shift, there isn't enough time for anyone other than them to suddenly emerge in power. It takes time for the 'new arrivals' to win offices and get in a position to capitalize on their voters. It's taken even longer here of course cause many of these newer GOP voters are still registered Dems. Morrissey's 2018 primary win also suggests a geographic divide will emerge. He is a candidate of the north and panhandle - at least based off his 2018 coalition - like most of the R's who came in to power before West Virginia turned deep red. Miller is more likely to get votes from the south, where he lives and his mother represents. Warner is from the north and his ties to the old party are from there.

WV-Sen R: Again, don't forget the geographic divide cause that's going to be a strong factor here. Mooney has always been known as a carpetbagger, and so he tries to paste that over with other ideological fronts. But his carpetbagging worked cause he moved into the Panhandle district from adjacent Maryland. He won his incumbent vs incumbent 2022 primary for the merged district cause of his strength off the Panhandle. And remember, that area has oversized strength in GOP primaries, but it can't outvote every other county. Which is probably what the results will look like: a tight or Mooney-won panhandle and a Justice victory elsewhere.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1790484089868370270?t=xltVLx-ChrNivoPl-_6qUQ&...

Reminder that Maryland is one of the few states who could reasonably accelerate their post-pandemic counting process, but hasn't.  So if things are as close as the 2022 Gov primary in any race, then there would/should not be an immediate call.

Here's the state site which breaks down the votes by basket and should be quicker than the press.

[Oryxslayer]

Incredibly early in NC, but Brad Knott has such a large lead in NC-13 that you have to suspect the rest of the district is going to go for him to some degree once more results show up. Johnson county could counter the trendline in other counties, but will it?

[Oryxslayer]

West Virginia going to be Palmer's best state in the Dem Pres Primary, thanks to him being a name nobody heard of for the Republicans-but-Registered Dem. However, their continuing registration changes - R's got the state registration plurality recently - means there may not be any county wins like in 2012.

Elliot seems favored for the Dem senate, since Shrewsbury seems to be a southern candidate and Blakenship is also going to divide the southern legacy Dems with him.

Justice Landslide, though the Panhandle which has always been and will still be Mooney's support base seems like it will still favor him. Justice just got the AP call. R

No idea what's going to happen in the GOP gov race, but Morrissey is getting much more out of his panhandle base than the other candidates elsewhere, so he seems best positioned at the moment.

Riley Moore well ahead in the primary for WV-02, and Miller losing a solid chunk of the vote in her primary but still up over 60%.


Knott got the AP call, he has over 90% in the runoff for NC-13.

Weatherman similarly sweeping for the GOP LT. Gov runoff in NC.

[Oryxslayer]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

What's the theory on eday vote being better? (Not disagreeing just curious) In GOP primaries it is usually the Trumpier, has there been any thoughts o the type of Dem candidates.

In a state like MD it is the more African American of the piles. And the Ev is more likely to be politically engaged (DC) folks who are for Trone.

Trone won the overall mail thats currently counted (a smaller amount will be counted later) 55-42, and lost in-person EV 53-43. That should give you an idea of  the direction of travel.

[Oryxslayer]

Unfortunately Elfreth is ahead early in the 3rd. On the plus side Joe Vogel, the student government guy, is losing badly in the 6th. Johnny O easily takes the 2nd of course.

Currently 37% for Elfreth to 28% for Dunn in the 3rd, and 43% for Delaney and 23% for Vogel in the 6th.

Though like in the senate, this is basically entirely Mail and In-Person EV. So things can change.

In the 3rd, Elfreth won Mail 40% - 27.8%, and Early in Person 37% to 28%

In the 6th Delaney won Mail 44.1% - 19.4%, and Early In Person 43% - 23%

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1790544566866546853

Glad to see Evans, who was a convicted J6 offender, go down to defeat.

Moore technically got called by the AP before her in the open 2nd, so even if they lose the Gov Primary, the families influence still expands. If they do win the Gov race, the state might well their fief.

[Oryxslayer]

Harry Dunn's performance is not good news for Eugene Vindman in VA-07 maybe? Both are resist ATM outsider candidates running against establishment elected pols in their districts.

The main difference is here Dunn's money got challenged by AIPAC whereas nobody else can rival Vindman's totals in VA.

Why would any D partisan want Alsobrooks to prevail? We are going to have to light millions on fire to defend the seat when Trone could light up his own cash.

Turn out people really dislike self-funders who think their money makes them superior to everyone else when it comes to the actual political process, idk. And given what the GOP side of the ballot is looking like, I rightly think people are realizing Hogan is getting pulled down by the same gravity as other past opposite-state governors who ran statewide federally.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Nebraska GOP radical's decision to endorse the challenger to all of their congressional incumbents seems to be doing damage. But without the more Trump-Friendly E-Day, we can't exactly say by how much.

[Oryxslayer]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

Trone is the favorite IMHO. Alsobrooks won the early in person early vote but that's all in. Trone is winning the absentee vote and there is a lot of it still out and it's expected to be the biggest slice of the vote pie.

https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/primary_results/gen_results_2024_2.html

Really?  I'm thinking Alsobrooks has the advantage with so much Prince George's still out and Trone barely ahead in other places like Baltimore County and Howard.

Prince George's is an electoral juggernaut in MD Dem primaries.

E-Day is going to be Alsbrook's best.

She's currently winning the 40K counted for E-Day 57.4% to 38%. That's far larger than either candidates result from Mail or In Person, see above for the exact percentages.

That's why she's slowly going with precincts. And it's by far the largest, compared to the partial remaining mail vote. Some has already been counted.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1790553066422317225?t=-Tv617Px65ZYppOznUEFXQ&...

Like yeah, it'll take a while,  but the winner should be obvious.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Nebraska GOP radical's decision to endorse the challenger to all of their congressional incumbents seems to be doing damage. But without the more Trump-Friendly E-Day, we can't exactly say by how much.

What was the reason for this?

Idk, I'm just repeating what was said in the intro on page 1. I guess yet another example of conventions being more "stupid crazy" than voters.

[Oryxslayer]

The margin with Eday voters has only gone up from 57-38 to 59-36 Alsobrooks, just in case you need any further proof this won't be close.

[Oryxslayer]

Logan, Mingo, y'all okay up there?

Blakenship is from there, owned a mine (which got people killed), and crushed there in past primaries albeit as a Republican. But the real answer is that region of south WV is ground zero for remaining legacy registered Democrats but actual Republicans.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm shocked Dunn appears to be tanking in MD-03; these resist lib candidates have all this cash, what are they doing with it??

He had all the Cash, and then AIPAC decided to create a second mountain to rival the first.

[Oryxslayer]

Bacon in NE-02 last night ended up winning with 62%, by far the lowest amount for the incumbent Nebraska delegation.  He like Hogan was fortunate that the radical (backed by the crazy state party) didn't have much of anything besides his positioning.  Cause the results suggest a serious challenger from the right in both circumstances may have won.

[Oryxslayer]

Also Steny Hoyer only has 70.6% of the vote in his primary.

Throw it onto the pile of previous evidence that once Hoyer retires he's going to be replaced by an African-American.