Turkey local elections 2024

[Oryxslayer]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

Why is the AKP far more competitive in Urban areas than most right wing parties?

Well, firstly, it isn’t. The Republicans are not ‘most right wing parties’, and are in fact exceptional in their lack of appeal to urban dwellers (obviously also an artefact of the US’s particular demographics).

When it comes to Turkey more specifically, I’d look at the general patterns of who votes AKP / CHP / HDP (or whatever Kurdish party is currently allowable). Once you control for those demographics, the city by city results become fairly comprehensible.

Also, when we discuss urban areas, Istanbul too large to ignore. Something like 15.5 Million or a little under 20% of the national population, the largest urban area by far in Europe. The City (reminder some historical groups called it that cause nothing compared) has always been a magnet for economic power, which has always attracted internal migrants. This makes Istanbul a massive snapshot of the entire country, with many different communities in many different neighborhoods. That is not like most cities, even other centralizing ones like London.

[Oryxslayer]

Shockingly good victory for CHP. They've decisively beaten the AKP in major metros. They're winning in very conservative interior Anatolian provinces like Adiyaman, Kilis and Kirikkale. Was kicking out the Alevi all they needed to do to start winning again?

I would say there's two specific factors at play, perhaps just one, but more likely some combination of the two.

First, it's no secret that there was 'fudging' when it comes to the national government election, with actions that would be illegal in many countries boosting the AKP. Maybe not direct ballot box stuffing,  but certainly a hostile environment for the Opposition. Such a situation is is not replicable for these contests. So one might say this result is closer to a free and fair uninfluenced measurement of the country.

Second, when a strongman leader has been in power for a long time,  their brand can easily separate from their party's image. As long as the strongman maintains appearances they could remain popular even as their government isn't.  Modi is another example of how he carries the BJP nationally way above the 50-50 or worse suggested by local elections. So in this situation,  Erdogan announcing his eventual retirement really did dynamite the AKPs electoral foundation. 

Also I suspect just general off-year things,  when certain voters have more motivation than others.

[Oryxslayer]

It's complicated. In 30 provinces there is a metropolitan mayor who gets elected by the entire area, in addition to the district/city level mayors. In the rest the linked results page defaults to the capital city district which is not exactly the best representation. The provincial assembly is province-wide, so might be a better estimate.

Edit: I got sniped.

[Oryxslayer]

Something that shouldn't be lost here is that the national-religious coalition that has kept Erdogan in power still exists. Even in these elections it is very much present and still dominant in much of the interior where it always gets absurd support from the electorate. What has changed is that this coalition was more divided in these elections than at any time in recent memory. Obviously the AKP competes against their MHP allies in these type of contests, with the MHP in the past often serving as their sole opposition in many rural and/or religious areas. Also in this boat of competing allies are other smaller parties like the BBP, but the MHP is the largest.

But now in addition to the MHP there is the New Welfare Party/YRP/Yeniden Refah which cut deep into this coalition, even winning one of the 30 Metropolitan Mayors. Obviously some of this is cause of current Middle Eastern events, but many national-religious voters opting for the opposition to the right of the AKP divided their vote and at times allowed other parties to slip into first place. This fragmenting might be a direct result of Erdogan's announced retirement: those who always were less satisfied but okay with the AKP now now have nothing stopping them from seeking the party they have more enthusiasm for.