British Local Elections, May 2024

[Oryxslayer]

how are local councils powerless?

Councils have statutory duties to provide certain services. On top of that, there’s certain things which are expected even if they’re not legally bound to provide them. Given the rising demand for statutory services* along with council funding cuts (especially for more disadvantaged areas), you end up with a situation where councils have very little room for manoeuvre or policy experimentation. They are increasingly just the implementers of national government policy, not that it stops councils claiming they are choosing to do lots of great things or with a little more power they could do so.

*adult social care, education for disabled children, and homelessness are a particular worry for council’s budgets at the moment

At least in theory though this should change somewhat with Labour coming to power nationally and actually allotting sufficient money (ending Tory austerity) for the councils so they can provide and expand the services Labour passionately claims to defend/support/build upon.



Also I'm not quite sure if the statement of powerlessness was originally about the mayors or the councils...cause combined authority Mayors (excluding London) are much closer to powerless, especially when compared to their media position.  

[Oryxslayer]

Election maps UK seems to think the Savanta poll was incorrectly weighted by REGION and not by COUNTY for the West Midlands mayoral election, meaning that it overestimated Con and underestimated Labour.....

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1782360305437147340

They admitted their failure lol:

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1782389209988296867?t=vjHsD4N8mBKcv4TlMfj4...

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1782389213079519599?t=gjY3GjRnGv9Bm08rBo8m...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1783435787432059058?t=xoyJm_YM00tdoc_9...

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1783437413584363827?t=3cvD9jQwZlJ3-LN-...

Perhaps a far more realistic Reform number. Street has a 39/17 positive approval rating, whereas Sunak is underwater with 27/46. He's mostly getting pulled under by voters who didn't participate in 2021 - aka the shifting national environment making the local electorate very different.

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1783436718470791480?t=fOM0nrphi6kwVNIZG3MZ...

[Oryxslayer]

Southwest (mostly Home Counties)

All Up:

Maidstone: 25 Con – 12 LD – 4 Lab – 3 Green – 11 Indies (5 Con – 5 LD – 2 Lab – 2 Green – 4 Indies in 2023)

Tandridge: 11 LD – 9 Con – 8 Others – 14 Indies (3 LD – 3 Others – 2 Con – 6 Indies in 2023)

Tunbridge Wells: 17 LD – 11 Con – 7 Lab – 10 Others – 3 Indies (5 LD – 5 Others – 3 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Wokingham: 26 LD – 22 Con – 5 Lab – 1 Indie (11 LD – 4 Con – 3 Lab in 2023)


Partial:

Adur: 9 Con – 4 Lab – 1 Green – 1 Indie [Council: 16 Con – 9 Lab – 2 Green – 2 Indies] (7 Con – 5 Lab – 1 Green – 1 Indie in 2022 )

Cherwell: 11 Con - 3 Lab – 1 LD – 1 Indie [Council: 20 Con – 12 Lab – 10 LD – 3 Greens – 3 Indies] (5 Lab – 5 LD – 3 Con – 2 Greens – 1 Indie in 2023)

Crawley: 7 Con – 5 Lab [Council: 20 Lab – 16 Con] (8 Lab – 4 Con in 2023)

Elmbridge: 6 Con – 4 LD – 6 Others [Council: 20 LD – 12 Con – 16 Others in Many Groups] (9 LD – 5 Others – 2 Con in 2023)

Hastings: 7 Con - 3Lab – 1 Green – 1 RefUK – 4 Indies [Council: 10 Con – 6 Lab – 4 Greens – 1 RefUK – 11 Indies] (9 Lab – 4 Con – 3 Greens in 2022 )

Milton Keynes: 9 Con – 6 Lab – 4 LD [Council: 27 Lab – 16 LD – 14 Con] (12 Lab – 6 LD – 2 Con in 2023)

Mole Vally: 11 LD – 1 Con – 2 Others [30 LD – 3 Con – 6 Others] (All up in 2023)

Oxford: 14 Lab - 5 LD – 2 Greens – 5 Indies [Council: 22 Lab – 9 LD – 6 Green – 11 Indies] (15 Lab – 4 LD – 4 Green – 1 Indie in 2022 )

Reading: 12 Lab – 2 Green – 1 Con – 1 LD [Council: 32 Lab – 7 Green – 5 Con – 3 LD – 1 Indie] (11 Lab – 3 Greens – 2 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

Reigate and Banstead: 9 Con – 3 Greens – 1 LD – 2 Others [Council: 23 Con – 11 Greens – 3 LD – 1 Lab – 6 Others in 2 groups – 1 Indie] (7 Con – 4 Greens – 2 Others – 1 LD – 1 Lab in 2023]

Runnymede: 8 Con – 1 LD – 1 RefUK – 2 Others – 1 Indie [Council: 19 Con – 4 Lab – 4 LD – 2 Greens – 1 RefUK – 4 Others – 7 Indies] (5 Con – 2 Lab – 2 LD – 2 Others – 1 Green – 2 Indies in 2023)

West Oxfordshire: 7 Con – 4 Lab – 3 LD – 1 Green – 2 Indies [Council: 17 LD – 16 Con - 11 Lab – 3 Greens – 2 Indies] (6 LD – 6 Con – 4 Lab – 1 Green in 2023)

Woking: 6 LD – 4 Con – 1 Lab [Council: 20 LD – 4 Con – 2 Lab – 4 Indies] (8 LD – 1 Lab – 1 Indie in 2023)

Worthing: 7 Lab – 5 Con – 1 LD [Council: 24 Lab – 11 Con – 1 LD – 1 Green] (9 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Green in 2023)




Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.



2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward. Some councils up did not vote in 2023.

One week until people vote, so I’ll try to make this quick, even though the Southeast is by far the most complex of the regions.

Labour should be safely in control of Reading, Crawley, and Worthing. The latter two being notable because Labour only recently took (back) control, but that is why those two are safe. Like so many other places, the class of councilors up here is more Conservative than preceding years, with them even winning Crawley that year. This means overexposure and the potential for increasing Labour gains.

Labour meanwhile is in a straight fight with the Tories in Adur. The seaside council is nestled between Labour’s Brighton and Worthing gains, but because no seats were up in 2023, the council remains under a tenuous Conservative majority. Labour’s dramatic growth along the Sussex coast meant this was a known target: activists have been working here since the new year to try and take control. The question may not be just toppling tory control, but can Labour sweep for it's own majority.

Milton Keynes meanwhile seems poised to return to a Labour majority after many years in NOC. The Lib-Dems are a factor here, but their incumbents and targets have near-zero overlap with Labour's. Two Tory councilors defected to Labour and a third fell in a Lib-Dem By-Election flip, putting them in such a dire position. Labour needs to repeat only some of their 2023 gains to take the majority, and this class has may more Tory overexposure compared to the 2022 or 2023 results.

The Lib-Dems meanwhile are safely in control of Woking and Mole Valley and will almost certainly take control of Wokingham. Woking is interesting because the council had to declare bankruptcy, usually something that precipitates a change in control. But here the Lib-Dems took power after Tory misadministration became public, and since then have been trying to do the best with their inherited difficulties. Gains therefore are still a possibility, especially since in 2022 and 2023 voters elected zero Tories. Wokingham meanwhile is currently in a Lib-Dem minority government. The only reason it is not a majority is because the 2021 class is overwhelmingly Conservative, whereas 2022 and 2023 were Lib-Dem waves. With all councilors up under new and seemingly favorable lines, the Lib-Dems should take a majority in a council covering one of their GE targets.
 
The Lib-Dems should also be secure in their control of Elmbridge, but potentially in only a minority. They were able to catapult a shock 2019 GE result into subsequent local success, making gains off the MANY residents groups and Conservatives. Now they are  the largest party and face the last class of councilors with a noticeable Tory presence. If the Lib-Dems repeat their gains from 2023 they take a majority of 1, but not all of these seats are held by Tories like in 2023. So they would have to outperform past results and go against the residents groups to make a majority likely – something hard to measure since the Lib-Dems didn’t put resources or sometimes even candidates against the groups in 2023.
 
Oxford and Hastings are in comparable positions of the councilor’s own makings. Both were previously controlled by Labour, a majority in Oxford and a minority in Hastings, but then both councils saw significant Labour defections in reaction to the war in Gaza. This is despite both councils having limited Muslim populations, though in Hastings this was likely an excuse for deeper differences between Local and national Labour groups. In Oxford Labour maintained a minority – and could retake the majority since enough defectors are up for reelection – but in Hastings the Independents formed a new administration with the Greens.

That is the key divergence. In Oxford Labour could face an activist backlash if voters go Green but barring that should have control. Hastings meanwhile is a free for all. The Greens are going in to try and expand their delegation after taking leadership through the defections, the Tories have a large number of incumbents to defend after the 2021 wave, and Labour are still pushing. Complicating matters are tensions between the Labour mayor and the chaotic coalition, and constant whispers of financial difficulties. Any outcome is imaginable, even Labour doing what they did last year in Brighton and retaking a majority.

Cherwell, Tunbridge Wells, and West Oxfordshire are three councils where the situation can be generalized as a Lib-Dem and Labour (and localists in Tunbridge) team-up to force something close to a duopoly versus the Conservatives. Neither party on its own can win their own majority, neither presently can eliminate the other, but together they do/will hold power. There is no alliance between the the parties electorally, but recently voters behaved tactically in most circumstances. In all three Labour is concentrating in a urban area – Banbury, Whitney, and Tunbridge Wells town – with the Lib-Dems advancing elsewhere. Cherwell is the only one not under a coalition administration, but that’s because Labour refused to work with the Greens in 2023, leaving the council with a Tory minority. In all three The Conservatives are overexposed cause of the 2021 wave, enabling all all parties to potentially make gains. In Tunbridge Wells this is especially the case with all councilors up, and under new lines that seemingly hurt the rural Localists and Tories the most. Though the Lib-Dems are pouring resources into Tunbridge Wells with Ed Davey making a stop early in the campaign: partially to prepare for the GE and partially try for a majority since the all-up election affords them this possibility.

Maidstone, Reigate, and Runnymede form the next grouping which might be labeled ‘coalitions of chaos.’ In all three the Tories hold minorities versus a very fractured opposition. The Greens and Lib-Dems top the pile in Reigate and Maidstone respectively, but a rival administration would need at least 4 groups to work together in all 3 councils. Yet people dislike the Tories and therefore elected a messy constellation of non-Tory councilors in 2023. In Runnymede these issues are compounded by large council debts. In Reigate the Greens are trying to make a push, but the council has received less attention than other contests. All councilors are up in Maidstone, which may end up facilitating anti-Tory unity among voters. The Conservative administrations though could persist in these councils either by exploiting a split opposition vote, or through exploiting a divided council that cannot agree to work together.

Finally, all seats are up in Tandridge though change here most likely can only happen through negotiations. This presently is a localist stronghold: the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group is solid and another third of councilors are Independents. Those two have been working together since 2021. If the growing Lib-Dems win enough seats then maybe they could lead a new coalition, but more likely is a reaffirmation of support for the peculiar coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

On that point YouGov today had both incumbents up narrowly. They are definitely being hyped up as the races to watch, even though they really shouldn't IMO, and it probably works to the Tories detriment.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1785076688746934574?t=SqCB81WRXrpmjC9skok0j...

Ben Walker looks to have the national map like last year up tomorrow(?) on the New Statesman, now everyone else can see something like the data I had to compile in GIS and have sporadically been posting. Which I created and have been posting cause this wasn't available earlier. Far later than last year, but last year things got more attention.

In that vein,  I miss the Twitch/YT streams/podcasts he did back then, they were helpful in aggregating local reports and specific situations.  Hope he still does one on Thursday.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1785360073302130781?t=fxXPR0D-pCcUoYe6g...

Here's that New Statesman map by Ben Walker alluded to yesterday. Also includes his writeup, though IMO that fails to note the Gaza Chaos narrative in some councils (perhaps because the defectors don't show up as defectors based on how he constructed his map), and somewhat succumbs to the the mayoral hyperfixation.

[Oryxslayer]

Andrew Teale's previews:

Part 1: introduction, London and Wales
Part 2: northern England, except Lancashire, and the Midlands

(Parts 3 and 4 to follow)

Part 3: southern England outside London

In other news, an outfit called Labour Together ("a think tank offering bold ideas for Britain under a Labour government") have produced a poll of the North Yorkshire mayoral election (which includes the city of York as well as the ridiculous North Yorkshire unitary council, which in turn includes Sunak's constituency). It shows Labour ahead by enough that if they don't win it will be reasonable to call the poll wrong.

Ehhhh....it's a "possibly believable" poll, that's what I will say. Since I started looking at these contests I have thought there is an outside chance of the Tories taking none of the mayors and Labour all, but that hinged on North Yorkshire.  In a normal time, this is Safe Conservative. But an open seat now, here, is not so safe. 2023 in York and even 2022 in the northern council were bad for the Conservatives.

The issue is that there is viability for not just Labour, but the Lib-Dems as well as potentially one of the Indies. So if the opposition voters gravitate to one and consolidate, then the Tories could be in trouble. If not then vote splits give the Conservatives a path to victory.  Definitely a place where the elimination of the second round runoff helped the Conservatives. It's not too hard to imagine Labour plus the Lib-Dem voters teaming up in the current environment and putting one of their candidates into power in a 1 v 1.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, its showtime. 

Polls will open at 7 and close at 10 in the evening. Reminder to bring a acceptable form of ID, that was a big headache when introduced previously.

Some time around or after 10pm the press will begin covering results in text and video. The BBC time is in the post above me, but others exist. I know from experience Sky will have a YT livestream for those who lack anything else - I have pity to offer if that is your only option. 

However,  the above broadcasters will mostly just focus on the toplines and narratives that makes sense to the average viewer.  If you want to know exactly what seat was won by who, a regional papers website or council homepage may be your best choice. People online will eventually have a spreadsheet up, but they are only human and mistakes will happen in the struggle to obtain the data fast like everyone else. At some point people like Ben Walker at the New Statesman  or @ElectionMapsUK will have the results in visual form, depending on how fast results are uploaded.

Things though won't just be overnight, but instead extend into the weekend in some areas. The rough press timeline of when to expect results is here, but that is for things overall.  Individual results may begin to trickle in earlier if there is someone reporting them from the count

[Oryxslayer]

It’s strange when you think about it that Street is re-standing; he’s had two terms, was clearly livid about HS2 and faces working largely with a Labour Government.

I think the relatively powerless nature of these posts - they're basically transport commissioners with a few other things added on depending on the area in question - encourages this.

Also, in that vein,  Street is engaged in a some serious conflict to obtain more power from the PCC. A fight that I don't think he personally wants to lose by default through retiring.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone willing to make any predictions such as

How many seats do the Tories lose?
How many seats does Labour gain?
Who wins the West Midlands mayoralty?
Who wins the Teesside mayoralty?
Labour margin in Blackpool South

any other hot contests?

Statistical modeler Ben Walker estimates 478 Conservative losses, with a little over half in the net change going to Labour. So yes, I also think the Tory estimate of 500 loss council seats is a good topline benchmark to look for.

But that is not the full story.

Control and gaining seats in the right areas arguably matter more. That is the Labour line going into today. So here are some benchmarks for change in power:

Hartlepool: Labour landslide flips Con + Indie -> Labour majority
NE Lincolnshire: Con majority -> Con Minority
Dudley: Con majority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Tamworth: Con minority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Cannock Chase: Labour Minority -> Labour Majority
Redditch: Con majority -> Labour Majority
Nuneaton: Con majority -> Labour Majority
Rugby: Con Minority -> Labour + Lib-Dem coalition
Dorset: Con Majority -> Lib-Dem Majority
Adur: Con majority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Basingstoke & Deane: Indie led Coalition -> Labour or Lib-Dem led Coalition
Rushmoor: Con Majority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Wokingham: Lib-Dem minority -> Lib-Dem majority
Cherwell: Con Minority -> Labour + Lib-Dem coalition
Milton Keynes: Labour Minority -> Labour Majority
Elmbridge: Lib-Dem minority -> Lib-Dem Majority
Welwyn Hatfield: Lib-Dem + Labour coalition -> Lib-Dem + Labour tie for coalition leadership
Harlow: Con majority -> Labour Majority
Brentwood: Lib-Dem minority -> Lib-Dem majority
Basildon: Con Majority -> Con minority with potential for opposition coalition
Thurrock: Con Minority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Southend: Con Minority -> Labour Minority


These are priced on most of the estimates you see. But then there are the actual confusing councils, usually cause of the lack of nationalization or an extreme amount of it. Potential Gaza backlash or the potential lack of it matters in some of these. This is something new so models and observers can't exactly pinpoint it's potential viability:

Maidstone: Con minority -> Coalition
Hastings: Green + Indie Coalition -> Coalition
Bristol: Labour Minority -> Green Minority?
Stroud: Green led coalition -> Green or Labour majority?
Gloucester: Con Majority -> Coalition
Worcester: Labour + Green Coalition -> Labour majority?
Oxford: Labour minority -> Labour Majority or Lib-Dem led Coalition?
Norwich: Labour Minority -> Labour Majority or Green + Labour Defector Coalition?
Cambridge: Labour Majority -> Labour Minority?
Peterborough: Con Minority? -> Coalition
Hyndburn: Con Minority -> Labour Majority?
Pendle + Burnley: Labour-Defector Led Coalitions ->

Rochdale, Manchester, Bradford, and Others: Will Gaza-focused candidates - sometimes Indie sometimes under local or Galloway labels - takes seats of Labour?

[Oryxslayer]

What happens when you have single issue candidates (e.g. all about Gaza) who get elected to a local council and discover they will spend the next three years dealing with parking and dog runs?

They have the word 'Councillor' in front of their names and that gives them more credibility, at least in their own minds, when they talk about their issue of interest.

So far it has only been Labour defectors driving the narrative. Not only are they already elected, but in many cases they were making statements with the knowledge that their position isn't changing. Defections were mostly occurring in one of two situations: where there were enough/all defecting councilors and could rebuild a new majority with them at the head (e.g. Pendle) or where they were in opposition and that wasn't going to change (E.G. Walsall).

But now some face the test of the voters they claimed to be acting in the interests of, usually with only the Indie label. They theoretically are in the best position of such candidates with incumbency and sometimes power, but even their fate is uncertain.

The indie/single-issue slates running mainly in the NW are not just challengers to large Labour majorities, they also only have Gaza. Power cannot fall into their hands in most places just cause of the Labour math: for example 50% of the Rochdale council is not up for election and Labour, they only need to hold 1. Labour can and no doubt will ignore the small delegations, hurting the communities voice and representation in government. People who get elected on these type of national platforms usually just can't be worked with constructively.

Then we get to the issue of voters. Both Galloway's result and subsequent investigations into the NE locals found the issue only cuts into the Muslim communities, and how much versus other issues is debatable. Which is why some suspect things like this won't matter. But it's an unknown you have to recognize.


Also there's plenty of past evidence from Galloway's previous council meddling of what he brings to the table...

[Oryxslayer]

BBC Results Central Site. Their TV stream will not start till before Midnight.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/england/results

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786138663882989654

He's up on Yt right now if you want something until the BBC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFX_go4-5bI&ab_channel=BritainElects


Edit: Teale is in the live chat as well.

[Oryxslayer]

From the livestream there are rumors of a Tory Wipeout in Portsmouth. Unsurprising given history and their remaining turf, but looks really bad for a certain rival who is seemingly preparing to challenge Sunak...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786170866180424146?t=riagrlh4nheiSzo9a...

First council result. As suspected,  it's a by election and not a regular council.

[Oryxslayer]

The real thing to note is Reform in all 3 Sunderland seats so far coming in second, even though they got near zero local presence.

In regards to Sunderland: I expected 5 Labour gains in Sunderland but maybe there could be even more if the more safe incumbent Tories see their vote halved. But what about the Lib-Dem vote, they are winning wards cause they are not Labour, not cause of Brexit. What happens to their vote? And there actually is a Reform incumbent (defector) here...

The most direct parallel is Hartlepool, where IIRC Reform also have a full slate. If repeated I would not be shocked with a clean Labour sweep now rather than 9ish of 12.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786174831303500222?t=IWg14wsrG1yBBhbLD...

Followed by the first Labour gain. This fell last year as well and was expected,  more messy than before though.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786174831303500222

Labour vote share goes down but they gain

could reform be hurting both parties or is Reform benefiting Labour?

I mean they are clearly taking more from the Tories than Labour

BBC just showed the amalgamated results, on the surface it appears as a 17% swing between 2021 and now of Con -> Reform. Labour still gaining though cause Indies and others are also down, which in this part of the universe are also Brexit-y, so those votes are likely now in the Reform total. So given the 2021 vote was near the Conservative peak for the NE so far, there's just a scattering of the former Boris Conservative vote to others.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have made another gain in Sunderland. It is off the Tory -> Reform defector, so should temper Reform's joy at the Sunderland results.

Others are beginning to note on twitter that the Reform numbers are still ways down on Brexit Party numbers in the past, but their strength in various wards correlates.

[Oryxslayer]

Tories apparently fearing a potential wipeout in both Lincoln and Redditch

Both of these were somewhat expected.  They should have saved something in Redditch but given that Labour threw the kitchen sink things may have shifted hard for them in the end. The bigger question in Lincoln is if the Lib-Dems are the beneficiaries or Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786180765992026190?t=9kd-9S9b8rpQxKLe1...

A student area but the notable thing is Labour holding up fine, especially when compared to 2021 and not 2024. A early tea leave the Gaza issue matters only to Muslims?

[Oryxslayer]

Rushmoor Tories seemingly preparing too lose control. Seems possible that it could be the headline result as suspected last week, unless Sunderland gets done faster.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786185456079487361?t=scw6IWdhOItrTRy2P...

First green gain, though they took this in 2023 as well so it was a known target.

[Oryxslayer]

Broxborne has declared it's inevitable 9-1 Con-Lab result.