Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

I know everyone is focused on the headliner events today. But the majority of the contests today are far more local, city councils and mayors. I don't think there even is an exhaustive list cause of how many 1000 people communities are voting. Some of the more interesting one include:

- Aurora CO, where the incumbent mayor is former congressman Mike Coffman.

- Bridgeport CT, where the mayor just got charged with voter fraud and the primary candidate he committed this against is still on the ballot as an independent.

- Miami  FL, where the council lost a racial gerrymandering suit, but is still using the illegal map thanks to purcell.

- Fort Wayne IN, where Democrat mayor Tom Henry is running for a fifth term against a Republican city councilor in what has historically been unfriendly terrain for Democrats.

- Wichita KS, where the incumbent Democrat came in second during the blanket primary.  His opponent has more money and perhaps a bigger presence thanks to her time as a newscaster, even though she defected from the GOP to the libertarians.

- All city council seats in Boston, MA.

- All city council seats in NYC and Buffalo NY, as well as plenty of county offices in both areas.

- Philadelphia Mayor, city councillors both there and in Pittsburgh, and a bunch of offices in Allegheny.  Notable cause Dems hope the increased attention and local turnout will protect the court seat.

- Houston mayor and city council. The main fight is between Congresswoman Shelia Jackson Lee and State Senator John Whitmire.  Both are democrats but Whitmire gets the GOP vote. There will be a runoff since there are more than ten other candidates.

- The ever-factionalized Seattle city council is almost entirely up for reelection.

- Cincinnati,  Columbus,  Cleveland,  and Toledo all have local council elections (Columbus under a new system and expanded council) which Dems hope will drive urban referendum turnout.



There are additional statewide ballot innitiatives being voted on today besides the headliners in Ohio.

- Two ballot initiatives in Colorado. One concerns luxury taxes on smoking,  the other to lower property taxes but allows the state to raise further revenue from other sources.

- Two innitiatives in New York, both concerning debts for public infrastructure.

- Eight innitiatives in Maine. The majority of which are housekeeping and just need to go before the voters.  The seemingly most interesting are 1 and 3, which concern state power and electricity politics. 3 would seek to create a state-run power company,  interesting since Maine purchases a significant portion of its electricity from Canada.

- Fourteen ballot innitiatives in Texas. Some are just housekeeping. Some like 3, which would prohibit a wealth tax, are red meat for the GOP voters. The most interesting seemingly are 2 and 4, which concern fund allocation and how property taxes are used for education.

Finally, there are additional state legislative contests besides the ones in the Headliner states. These are:

- Maine HD-50, a safe D small-town coastal seat.

- Kentucky HD-93, what should be a safe D seat in and outside Lexington.

- Massachusetts Senate, Hampshire and Worcester. Potentially competitive district coving the rurals west west of Worcester, but including a bit of the city and a number of suburban towns.

- New Hampshire Hillsborough HD-03: A safe D seat in downtown Nashua.

- Rhode Island SD-01, uber-D majority minority seat in downtown Providence.

- South Carolina SD-42, a uber-D plurality African American district in North Charleston.

- Texas HD-02, A safe R district in East Texas.  But because of the jungle primary special election rules, and that there are 5 republican candidates,  there will probably be a runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

It is concerning to see Democrats skipping minority outreach in favor of resist liberal whites. I get that it's tough to argue with their post-Dobbs track record, and tonight will shed more light on that, but there's no reason to give up on minority outreach.

As an African American, I myself can't think of 1 time any of my family or friends have voted for anything outside of the presidential elections.  I just don't get the sense that many of them know or even care about these none presidential elections

which is a shame because I would argue these local elections are far more important than even the national ones when it comes to how it directly impacts our community

It is concerning to see Democrats skipping minority outreach in favor of resist liberal whites. I get that it's tough to argue with their post-Dobbs track record, and tonight will shed more light on that, but there's no reason to give up on minority outreach.

Maybe Black Democrats just aren't as pro-choice as White Democrats

That's probably a factor, but you'd think they'd still be interested in voting on the issue. It's not the only thing on the ballot either.

Yeah this is demonstrably true. Low income/low education voters, which in cities tend to highly correlate to race, have a hard time finding reasons or time to vote when the perceived impact is minimal.  There is a pile of past evidence from many states to this effect. You need to specifically target those groups intensely,  like in certain VA seats, to convey the necessity of voting. It doesn't help that often the districts in these regions,  both councilor and legislative, often go uncontested (I think 80% of VRA seats in MS are like this today for example).  

However varying opinions on abortion also are a factor.  Every voter has their own diverse set of beliefs, and if say 60% of the wider population supports a measure,  chances are it's the same in a minority group. Issues cross partisan and racial lines, as evidence shows. That's why Bush pushed gay marriage bans when they were popular in 2004. The thing is, the tenuous economic situation and desire for advancement in low income minority communities - as well as perceived racism - override other opinions in determining a vote for a party.

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1721938240788107574?s=46

Cincinnati has many more local council districts up, and they are citywide so are actually contested.  That's the difference.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1721711657833967995?t=XZ4e36BVAD71Rmlb8wYGzw...

In Virginia this is because for the first time,  counties have to match Early voters to precincts of residence. This is good, but it's a whole new thing, so it's going to mean delivering the early vote will be slow.

[Oryxslayer]

Can you guys recommend a good site with results map?? I´m mostly interested in Ohio.

NYt is always good, but if its paywalled for you, then thats out.

Desicison Desk HQ will have a good page up eventually. But they are their own vender (mainly for local stations and papers) so sometimes they are faster, sometimes slower.

Here's NBC

Here's CNN

Here's the Washington Post


If you care about VA, then there is really only VPAP

[Oryxslayer]

When will the exit poll be released?

Illegal before 7:30 pm est poll closing. But the electorate compositions, demographic indicators, and opinions on questions not related to the current election sometimes come out around 5pm est to give news channels something to discuss.

[Oryxslayer]

Did race play any role at all in the Kentucky election?

Does it ever not?

I mean these type of things (usually) don't come up in high profile and professionally structured campaigns. But they absolutely are part of the subconscious decision people have to make when they vote. For some people, its just checking the box with the labeled candidate, that's all that's needed. Others think more and decide for whatever reason they find compelling.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any explicable reason why Dems seemed to have triaged the Roanoke state senate seat? It was only Trump +0.1% and this is the exact kind of area where Democrats would overperform the presidential top line.

Incumbent John S. Edwards retired - admittedly he is 80 so not surprising - and that took the wind out of their sails very early.

That said, they probably should have invested a bit more. HD-41 isn't the most sensible district, but its seemingly one of those places where the 2020 Dem numbers were abnormal cause of pandemic issues and mail voting allocation. And the candidate this time is pushing hard for the seat which would have knock-on effects on SD-04.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone provide context for these? We're getting a ton of ____ is seeing high turnout! with no context of who it would be better for lol

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1721983746692227116

Well this one is very clear. Petersburg is a decently-sized almost-uniformly African American city that anchors the expected to be competitive HD-82 in Southside VA. it also anchors the seats democratic votes. We have had plenty of talk about how low-income minority voters struggle to turn out in off cycle contests, which is true. But the asterisk to that statement is if you are willing to spend extraordinary resources, like has happened in the competitive seats, then this can be counteracted.

[Oryxslayer]

I feel like VA has been a red mirage since at least 2016, so nothing really new there.

PA will likely be a blue mirage. Most counties have gotten very good with counting ballots faster, Allegheny and Philly were able to dump most of their VBM pretty early on last year, and then most other counties that I can remember generally posted VBM results before in-person. Fetterman jumped out to like an 84-15 lead in the beginning and then it only started receding once the election day returns slowly came in. I expect that to happen again this year.

There will be a red mirage in PA near the end. Oz closed the gap to 48.3 to 49.2 at over 80% reported when the race was called, before Fetterman's lead grew to 5 points.

Yes, they seemed to have learned a few things from 2020 and 2022:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1721957708889244123?t=0O1nVMmG-ZR-CYJm5-P...

[Oryxslayer]

Sorry for the personal interest, but I'm sure other people are interested. I'm going out for lunch and then I might go to the library. What time does the first poll close today?

Headliners:

KY: 6 pm est in some areas, 7pm est in most.
VA: 7pm est
OH: 7:30 est
PA: 8 pm est
NJ: 8pm est
MS: 8pm est

Other States:

IN: 6 pm est in most areas, 7pm in a few
FL: 7pm in the areas that are voting today
NC: 7:30 pm est
MA: 8pm est
CT: 8pm est
ME: 8pm est
RI: 8pm est
KS: 8pm in the places voting
TX: All except El Paso at 8pm, then El Paso at 9
NY: 9pm est
AZ: 9pm est
CO: 9pm est
Nm: 9pm est
MN: 9pm est
ID: 9pm in the places voting
IA: 10pm est
WA: 11pm est

[Oryxslayer]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

Virginia elections are far more relevant than Ohio.

I don't think the national networks have ever done exit polling for state legislatures though.

It's usual to ask "Which Party's Candidate did you vote for in the State Senate/House?," and have a multi-battery selection of options for the two questions, if they coincide with statewide races of note.  But that is the important part, the coinciding. The fact each race is different per district, some with no candidates from one of the big two, means that a statewide vote count is not all that informative. Additionally, unlike congress, the districts are too numerous to have representative exit polling stations in every district.

[Oryxslayer]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

She could still easily lose, or she could win, but I need to get this out of my system. Everyone got collectively gaslit here in terms of the district's partisanship. Everyone knows about how allocating mail votes led to PG county having more Dems in the west and less in the east under the 2020 results breakdowns than there actually were.

But everyone forgot there are other counties where this occurred, not to any single parties benefit, and this included Montgomery county.  The normal polarization between the university in Blacksburg and the rural precincts does not work well with county-wide allocation of VBM. Toss in a county cut and the university being under COVID protocols and 2020 was not a good baseline here. It's still more Republican than the state, but not 10 points more GOP than VA. That is visible from pre-Covid elections.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GanucheauAdam/status/1722013452116312356?s=20

Just FYI for all involved, these type of lawsuits are very common and almost in-and-out. Some judges are even on standby for them. They happen cause there is no way to extend hours, but that is the obvious solution to all involved. So there needs to be a emergency court order.

Last year a big one was all of Harris county got an extra hour cause of widespread delays in opening polling locations distant from Houston city center and government offices.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rickklein/status/1722013809068445976

Issue 1 is winning in a landslide. Likely to see good results for Issue 2 as well.

If the initial question holds true to this  - and it is obviously different from this or else they wouldn't have released it early - it would mean two things:

1) The limited polling on this was accurate
2) The election two months ago really didn't matter

[Oryxslayer]

The real Kentucky story right now is that Cameron is running considerably behind the other offices that were deemed safe, but not overwhelmingly. That could be good or bad for him, when we get a bigger picture  

Edit: now the gap is kinda verwhelming. Not a good sign for Cameron.

[Oryxslayer]

25% of Taylor County in and Beshear only trails by 6? He lost it by 25 to Bevin...

I have the sense looking at county results that they are posting the Early Vote first.

Well the ones that are a single precinct should be obvious. But beyond that it is the EV, and Kentucky is expected to be a blue mirage at first, as soon as Lexington drops its ev.  How much of a mirage though depends.

[Oryxslayer]

Don't look now guys, but Susanna Gibson (VA HD-57) who saw millions of pages of ink spilled over her, is up by 1% at 33% in without EV....

[Oryxslayer]

Don't look now guys, but Susanna Gibson (VA HD-57) who saw millions of pages of ink spilled over her, is up by 1% at 33% in without EV....

Yeah, are we missing something? Some of these races are looking almost too good to be true for Ds without any VBM/early vote...?

I mean you can literally look at the breakdown here:

https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/HENRICOCOUNTY/elections/2023-Nov-Gen/ballot-items/ec550242-03bd-4053-9b3d-4515269a2e40

The real answer though is that there are two counterveiling trends. Most people are moving away from EV without the pandemic, leaving a smaller but more dem pool of voters. So Eday will be less GOP. But then you also have Youngkin and the VAGOP going hard on the EV, which takes from their eday pool.

[Oryxslayer]

Dem's being projected to win in VA SD-31 in Loudoun. and GOP in the leaning for them SD-12.

[Oryxslayer]

Ok, so it looks like Dems are almost certainly going to hold the VA Senate at this point. What's the deal with the HoD, how are things looking there?

Looking very good for a flip, how much remains unclear cause a bunch of the picture is missing. The PW swing seats are going for them, HD-57 where the scandal happening might be a surprise flip, waiting on a bunch of EV everywhere.

[Oryxslayer]

Current status in Houston: Whitmire at 44%, Jackson Lee at 36%. About a third of the vote in. 

[Oryxslayer]

Texas initiatives are all looking to be easy wins, with the exception of a easy loss for resining the retirement age.

In Bridgeport, John Gomez, the guy who got targeted by election fraud, is up on Incumbent Mayor Ganin who hit with the scandal, 33% in.

[Oryxslayer]

I had no clue about some of these Maine Referendums:

Question 2: This initiative would make it illegal for companies or entities owned or controlled by foreign governments to spend money to influence voters on state referendums.

Question 4: This initiative would require auto manufacturers to share access to certain vehicle diagnostic tools with car owners and independent repair shops.

Question 8: The initiative would remove the provision in Maine’s Constitution that prohibits people who are under guardianship for mental illness from voting. The provision has not been legally enforceable since a federal judge deemed it unconstitutional in 2001. (WTF?)

Question four is obviously related to 'right to repair.'

Yes on question four!

Question two relates to foreign government (Re China) interference. Good luck anybody deciding what designates 'government control.'

Oh of course. I'm more stunned that 8 is still a thing in 2023 though.

5 through 8 are the ones proposed by the legislature. they all have some degree of 'housekeeping' legislation that is only before the voters cause it needs to be voted on this way.

[Oryxslayer]

Humphreys is the first MS county that's basically all in. It looks like 2019 redux, but it is a very small county.

its also a extreme RPV county, so the drop in turnout for all parties is more notable. Though perhaps that is more the population loss since 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

Ohio amendment 1 projected to have passed.