[November 7, 2023] Ohio Abortion Referendum Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

The Marijuana Initiative, which will also be on the same ballot pending approval of their cured signatures, I think should also be discussed here.

[Oryxslayer]

I think that's mainly because Michigan is a lot more Catholic than Kansas.  In general, abortion referenda have been blowouts for the pro-choice side in the Plains states and close one way or the other in Appalachia.  In Louisiana, pro-life was a yes vote on the referendum in 2020 and it still outran Trump.  If there is ever an abortion referendum in Rhode Island, I would expect pro-life to outrun Trump (not by enough to win).  With this in mind, Ohio strikes me as the kind of conservative state where pro-life could actually win, but my expectation going in is a narrow pro-choice win.  I don't think it will be that different from Kentucky, though.

The Appalachian part of Ohio isn't that large in terms of the overall population (most of OH-02 and OH-06 and a good chunk of OH-12). That's not even the part of the state that vote will end up with the biggest No votes anyway. For that, it'll be the area of the state bordering Indiana north of Dayton. Those counties pretty much maxed themselves out on this.

I think the vote on Tuesday is a good baseline, both on the margins and on overall turnout. Turnout will likely be significantly higher in November, which is also when college will be back in session. We're in the tail end of summer, but we're still very much in summer right now. Is anyone in this topic expecting lower turnout in November? I certainly doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see turnout at or exceeding the 2022 general election. It was a less polarized time, but note the turnout (and overall vote) on the veto referendum on collective bargaining in Ohio in November 2011.

I think the vote will look something like the vote on Tuesday, maybe a bit less. I don't think it'll be that different from Michigan on the overall margin. The pro-choice side should win so long as the northeastern part of the state holds its ground, and they just came out in force for an election in early August.

It's also worth looking at Cuyahoga County. Every single city/municipality in the county voted No on 1, despite the fact that the areas south of the city were pretty pro-Trump. Turnout was driven by the core areas around Cleveland, not Cleveland itself. Turnout in Cleveland itself was actually quite awful. I would say that means there's a potential treasure trove of voters waiting to be tapped for November.

Most of this is correct,  at least for a starting baseline.  Even though the coalitions will shift, with less Republicans voting Yes, the increased turnout among low-income urban minority groups that naturally comes from having elections at normal times will counteract that shift.

Additionally,  on Appalachia, there are reasons a lot or the really ancestral Dem areas were small wins for Yes this Tuesday when compared to the modest wins in other rural areas or even normal GOP blowouts in the western counties. Compared the the German Catholic or Evangelical Protestant sections of the state, Appalachia has a higher percentage of people who are agnostic/secular.  Abortion isn't the reason they vote overwhelmingly GOP these days, so don't expect the results or turnout there to dramatically change.

[Oryxslayer]

Hallelujah, a data point.

[Oryxslayer]

Which county will have the biggest Yes vote?? Probably Athens, right??

It's possible, but I think that's unlikely. If you use the August election as a baseline (yes, I know it's not the same thing, but it does provide some real numbers), Cuyahoga (23-77) and Franklin (25-75) had bigger margins than Athens (29-71). Of course, one major difference is that college is currently in session. Franklin has the massive college that is Ohio State University and Athens itself is a college town county. I wouldn't be surprised to see Athens County have the highest Yes margin on the marijuana initiative though.

I think the counties to watch on Tuesday will be Lake, Portage, and Wood. The first two voted to the left of the state as a whole in August, while Wood was just barely to the right of the statewide margin. If Yes isn't winning 2/3 (especially Lake), an upset is definitely possible. On the other hand, if Yes is holding some of the <55% No counties from August (such as Medina, Geauga, or Stark), it should be an easy victory. Any flips from No to Yes (which seems unlikely) would mean a huge victory for Yes, indicating a serious suburban revolt against Dobbs.

I would not totally dismiss the idea that there are counties that voted Yes to reform the constitution last time (I assume this is what you meant) that go for Yes again, even if the margins narrow from August. Cause the two questions could see regional variation, and there were six suburban counties last time that had 51-49 margins or narrower - three on the Yes side and three on the side of No. If say hypothetically, the South and West got more anti-Abortion from August, and the North and Center got more pro-Abortion, then some Columbus and Dayton suburban counties might flip in opposite directions.

Obviously though, all this talk of region variations is predicated on this referendum getting close to the August referendums's results. If we end up somewhere like 52-48 then counties will only be going in one direction, even if there are regional variations in support levels under the hood.

[Oryxslayer]

TFW the marijuana initiative seems to be running behind the Abortion initiative.

[Oryxslayer]

Currently Athens is the most pro-Abortion and pro-Marijuana. I know there was some discussion about that.

[Oryxslayer]

I would not totally dismiss the idea that there are counties that voted Yes to reform the constitution last time (I assume this is what you meant) that go for Yes again, even if the margins narrow from August. Cause the two questions could see regional variation, and there were six suburban counties last time that had 51-49 margins or narrower - three on the Yes side and three on the side of No. If say hypothetically, the South and West got more anti-Abortion from August, and the North and Center got more pro-Abortion, then some Columbus and Dayton suburban counties might flip in opposite directions.

Obviously though, all this talk of region variations is predicated on this referendum getting close to the August referendums's results. If we end up somewhere like 52-48 then counties will only be going in one direction, even if there are regional variations in support levels under the hood.

You did assume correctly. It's a somewhat crude way to make a comparison, but it is hard data and the two sides were largely fighting it on those grounds. That swath of counties along the Indiana border and north of Dayton sure knew what they were voting for. Not only did they feature some of the highest turnout, it's where they got pretty close to Trump margins. The August initiative was defeated because the North/Northeast turned out in big numbers, but diverged significantly from the Trump margins. The battle was won in the Cleveland suburbs (which seems to be true of most elections in Ohio). I don't think this election is any different in terms of where the battle will be won. The Appalachian part of the state is a bit of wildcard, but there aren't that many votes there. If it passes, I think that's where the marijuana initiative will far exceed Biden's numbers.

Where do you see the abortion amendment winning in places that the August amendment did? Let's use a 55-45 win as a baseline for this thought experiment. Butler County is the only that doesn't seem like it has a substantial rural component. The Columbus suburbs outside Franklin only really seem to be significant to the north, Delaware County (a must-win county for the pro-choice side). The others, such as Union County, all seem too blood red to be swing to the pro-choice side. I am interesting as to what you're thinking is on this. (As it is though, if the polls are to be believed, the pro-choice side should be on the verge of something around a 60-40 victory. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the polls have been showing sizable wins.)

Well this happened. Yes won Union, Butler, and Licking county despite the statewide margin narrowing, and lost Greene county which they previously won. Counties moving in both directions.

[Oryxslayer]

Allegedly the Ohio GOP says they will repeal the marijuana legalization immediately.  

They said they plan on adjusting where the taxes go and have a THC limit.

They have to know that attempting a full repeal will just encourage a binding initiative in 2024, and one that'll probably pass overwhelmingly thanks to going against the voters initial decision. If they need to tinker with it to get the law to service their interests, and thats how the one squares the circle, then let them do it. If you hold a referendum on an issue under pre-established rules, then you shouldn't be able to move the goalposts and say the voters got it wrong.