Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.
And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.
IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat
Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.
Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.
She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up
Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year
Yes especially if they do. A Redistriting amendment would benefit the East and hurt marcy, you couldnt create a district that is compact and pro dem for her, and a close race would include wood which brings latta into the mix, as much as folks talk about marcy the latta name is way stronger, she loses to bob. Easy
I can't believe this guy is talking confidently but they haven't read the text of the amendment. If they did, they would realize the commission is seemingly a copy of Michigan and specifically has the desire for an equitable partisan distribution as a priority goal. There's basically no scenario where the commission passes with it's current language, as approved by the state boards, and doesn't put the Toledo/Wood pairing in a competitive or D-leaning seat. Cause they can't reach a equitable distribution sinking a huge D city. And that will require maintaining sending it east.
