Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[Oryxslayer]

Surprised no discussion here not that the campaign is officially underway, with the vote scheduled for October 3rd.

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1699784838554046957?t=73WSaN0cMU77IINO...

First poll of the campaign period came out today, and while the Tories are ahead,  NDP voter efficiency in the regional crosstabs gives them a narrow majority.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm personally expecting the NDP to underperform in the popular vote, but overperform in the number of seats that they win with said vote, when compared to what models like 338 say they should be winning. Basically, in de facto duopolistic contests, the parties to the left of the system (varies in the provinces) have found their coalition of voters to be getting more efficient and concentrated.

But I don't know where this stacks up in actual percentages cause there has been no public polling in two whole weeks!

[Oryxslayer]

Hey, finally some polling data:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1708973122630598751?t=OJii1Ja_62g9Y_o...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1708972099635732785?t=nLRt7GYspZavtwh...

There isn't actually that much of a swing here compared to previous polls from the firms. More undecideds and liberals going NDP at the end.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709052207700549823?t=Iijf2hspPgDL0KF...

Forum has not polled the race before, so less relevant than the other two.

Their translation of votes to seats seems extreme,  but it's kinda what I alluded to above.  Electoral sorting of the partisan coalitions has seemingly made the duopolistic left party more efficient at converting votes to seats, as seen most recently in Alberta.

 I personally would no be surprised if the overall vote resembled this poll and the PCs only ended up with a few more seats than they projected, but that's my opinion.

[Oryxslayer]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

That's a winning strategy if I ever heard of one. Don't even bother going to the city with a majority of the province's seats.

My guess would be she was in Brandon, and places like Selkirk, Interlake-Gimli, Dauphin, Swan River... the rural ridings held by the PCs but are top NDP targets. I think the PCs have given up on most of Winnipeg (except maybe 3-4 seats)

In theory, if we look at Alberta, running the right-of-CPC campaign as the PCs have would result in there being smaller swings in said outer seats when compared to the big city. Will that still save the northern incumbents though? We shall see.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls closed in majority of locations.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial results with 14K votes, probably mostly Early:

NDP leads 13
PC 7
Lib 1

[Oryxslayer]

Fort Garry for the NDP is the first seat projected by CPC.

[Oryxslayer]

With about 71K votes, and suprisingly the rural areas under-reporting:

45.1% NDP: leading in 24, Called in 2 (Fort Gary, St. Vital)
40% PC, leading in 19, Called in 1 (Lakeside)
12.5% liberal, leading in 1

[Oryxslayer]

NDP up to 4 seats called PC's 3. The obvious call is from the NDP's leader Kinew who is leading by absurd margins, and a hold in Burrows. PC's in outlying Steinbach and southern Turtle Mountain.

[Oryxslayer]

Numbers where it stands:

44.6% NDP: 9 seats called, 19 seats leading, 3 seats unreporting with incumbents. 31 total
41.4% PC: 6 Called, 16 seats leading, 3 seats unreporting with incumbents. 25 total
11.6% Lib: leading in 1 1 total


As I suspected its looking like a tighter race than polling suggested overall, but the NDP has an efficient vote distribution in the outer parts of Winnipeg. Also the PC's holding up better in the outlying swingyer seats when compared to the urban ones.

Also the NDP leading in Tuxedo, aka Stephenson's seat, with a tiny number of polls reporting.

[Oryxslayer]

First Flip of the night is projected, Riel in South Winnipeg called for the NDP.

[Oryxslayer]

Liberals projected victors in Tyndall Park, Lamoureux holds. They lead in no other seats, and their leader is conceding his race.

With almost 220K votes in, and only 4K separating the NDP and PCs:

NDP 32: 17 Called, 15 Leading. 1 Called flip.
PC 24: 11 Called, 13 Leading.
Lin: 1 Called

[Oryxslayer]

Dougald Lamont is stepping down as the leader of the Liberal Party.

His seat is the second one called as a flip to the NDP. Radisson is the third.

[Oryxslayer]

Elections Manitoba site has crashed. I spotted this a bit ago when reporting, but just made public. 

Can't be beneficial with the PCs parroting big lie talking points about the tabulation machines.

[Oryxslayer]

A updated count makes River heights the next called flip to NDP.  Liberals confirmed to end at 1 seat. Southdale flips from PC to NDP.

[Oryxslayer]

Networks project NDP majority government.

[Oryxslayer]

Not many people care cause the victory is projected,  but the election reporting system seemingly broke again a few minutes back.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that the NDP is within a hair of winning both Brandon seats. Brandon West was supposed to be Safe PC, and yet they could end up taking it while still falling short in a few more rural ridings that were seen as more likely to go NDP such as Selkirk, Dawson Trail, and Interlake-Gimli. Dauphin right now is also 50-50. Really shows how the NDP underperformed in the rural areas but held their own in the urban areas - even in the smaller cities like Brandon.

Here's the impression that I get about the outlying seats that some saw as competitive, someone who knows better can correct me if I am wrong. And comparable seats are arguably in every western province and some similar western US states.

These have large floors for the reformist-aligned party either cause of Indigenous populations, small comparatively urban towns, or unions/mining. But the ceiling is low cause these populations are surrounded by rural areas little different to their conservative neighboring seats. The changing bases of support mean that the overall coalition may be more electorally efficient, but the NDP in this context flips many more voters in the cities (and areas that resemble suburbs but are part of the annexed city). The ceiling may once have been high enough for a flip, but now there just are not enough convincible voters to defeat the rural turf.

And this context is not so easily captured by a simple swing model of course.

[Oryxslayer]

If it's only a single poll remaining, its the one covering voters who voted elsewhere but reside in the seat. AKA, no particularly large or biased in favor of a party. Advance vote was counted.

The one uncalled seat that does not just have this situation is Selkirk, where there was a polling location that supposedly had power outages. When this understandable situation occurs in the US the people working there direct voters to nearby functioning locations, which would suggest there will be few votes there when finally added. But no idea if this practice remains the same in Canada.