UK local by-elections, 2023

[Oryxslayer]

On the point of Labour's leads, I'm just going to summarize what was said in the local election new statesman streams:

Labour's lead right now reflects a midterm environment. If the vote was held tomorrow,  the polls would probably be accurate. Some of the lead is coming from genuine Con -> Lab switchers, mostly voters who have voted Labour in the past across the north in particular, and middling income commuters in the south who are affected by cost of living.  Historically, when we look at say 1997 or 2010, the voters who swapped camps compared to past elections are going to stay that way, barring a rare but dramatic unending of the environment of course. Which makes sense: psychologically it is a big deal to swap parties in a fptp system, and once done it's hard to undo.

Some of the lead though comes from Tory voters just not responding to pollsters that they will vote. Compared to the party switchers,  going from one party to the couch is psychologically easy, but going back to that party is also not difficult.  However, we shouldn't just expect the stated responses of these voters to be inaccurate.  Firstly,  for a midterm local election poll we shouldn't expect these voters to turnout,  excluding in a few specific places.  A signicant campaign is needed to reactivate their past behavior,  and only in some areas will the resources be made available to do this. A general election though would activate said voters, because the media and national figures would make such willful ignorance redundant.  However,  not all past voters who said they wouldn't vote still would after a targeted campaign.  There are genuine people who are fed up with things and stay at home. This is comparable to not just 1997 and 2010, but also 2017, 2005, 2015, and numerous other contests. Not everyone can get off the couch. The electorate is always shifting  - some voters leave it, and some enter, and a "new" (could simply be someone who once voted but abstained for several elections) voter going for the eventual winner replacing a voter who stayed at home that would have voted for the losing party is just as relevant as a party switcher.

So tldr is that Labour after a GE campaign won't have a 20 point win, but would still be ahead by more than any of the conservative wins over the past decade. Notably the upcoming local elections will not be after a national campaign on the level needed to reactivate all the necessary voters. Such a loss even after a campaign would probably just mean the Tories saving the furniture,  not denying a majority.  They would need a significant environmental shift to convince their voters right now that maybe there is still some value in the Tories,  but with Labour leading on the economy question, and Starmer leading on the preferred PM question,  a significant shift would be a hard ask.

[Oryxslayer]

Came here to post the Tamworth results, just going to instead say Labour holding their vote much better than the Tories in this context is a strong portent for the 19th.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

Yes, though not unusual. My rule of thumb for Con transfers when there’s only Lab and SNP left is that only a handful go SNP and the rest split roughly evenly between Lab and non-transferable, which is pretty much what happened here.

It’s also a noticeably poor first preference total for the Tories: if there were a full four seat STV election with those first preferences you’d expect them to lose their seat.

To what extent do Tories bother preferencing at all? Would there be a chunk of them who would only vote Tory and then not bother to preference anyone else because they regard all other parties as equally bad (from their perspective)?

That would very much be the case in England, and is probably some motivation among those who still don't preference here. But Scottish politics is not English politics, and the dominance of the SNP and the independence question for a decade now has realigned voter perceptions. The core Unionist voter camps seem fine voting for other unionist parties if it means the SNP can lose. The enemy of my enemy and whatnot. Look no further than Rutherglen and Hamilton West for a clear example.