NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Oryxslayer]

Nobody thinks there's a reasonable chance he tries to pass the seat to his son after the congressional election this year?

[Oryxslayer]

There has been talk of the DOJ possibility bringing a heafty corruption case against him for the past week, which is no doubt why a bunch of Republicans are "considering."

Of course thats par for the course for the NJ Dems. Given the present brand and situation of the national Dems though, they will almost certainly be immediate widespread calls and pressure to resign or retire if the charges are real and seem legitimate.  Which would be just a different bad situation for said considerers: either they face an unaccused Menendez, who will still underperform but will win a blue state, or they face a new candidate who also probably couldn't lose a blue state.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

[Oryxslayer]

There has been talk of the DOJ possibility bringing a heafty corruption case against him for the past week, which is no doubt why a bunch of Republicans are "considering."

Of course thats par for the course for the NJ Dems. Given the present brand and situation of the national Dems though, they will almost certainly be immediate widespread calls and pressure to resign or retire if the charges are real and seem legitimate.  Which would be just a different bad situation for said considerers: either they face an unaccused Menendez, who will still underperform but will win a blue state, or they face a new candidate who also probably couldn't lose a blue state.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

This is the part of the process where we should be looking closely at when the son does. Cause once leadership let's the father know he has to retire,  the Menendez resources/allied machines will shift to him as their preferred successor.  And there will probably be hints of that occurring before an official announcement of retirement.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/johnsb01/status/1705323231589097484

That's what I expected to be the decider: Jersey pressure complimented by national,  not the other way around. Now let's see if he can set things up for Jr. to not immediately inherent his reputation and fall behind the 2018 congressmen,  despite theoretically being able to act faster than them.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's Murphy's statement.

[Oryxslayer]

So does Murphy go a placeholder route like Richard Codey? Does he pull a Ricketts and nominate himself?

I think he appoints a permanent successor if there's a consensus pick, like Sherrill or Kim.

I agree, but I don't think there is a consensus. Menendez's supporters will push for his son in a primary (he won't ever be appointed), then there's Kim, Sherrill, Malinowski, and whoever else the machines decide to push forwards.

I also doubt he could get away with appointing himself since the Lt. Gov is both the Secretary of state (since the Lt. Gov is ceremonial not empowered) and only held the office for 2 weeks.

[Oryxslayer]

So does Murphy go a placeholder route like Richard Codey? Does he pull a Ricketts and nominate himself?

I think he appoints a permanent successor if there's a consensus pick, like Sherrill or Kim.

I agree, but I don't think there is a consensus. Menendez's supporters will push for his son in a primary (he won't ever be appointed), then there's Kim, Sherrill, Malinowski, and whoever else the machines decide to push forwards.

I also doubt he could get away with appointing himself since the Lt. Gov is both the Secretary of state (since the Lt. Gov is ceremonial not empowered) and only held the office for 2 weeks.

Don't forget about Gottheimer.

I personally think he wants a House chairmanship, but maybe he does hop in if everyone else is.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim seemed like the most likely to consolidate party-wide support. If Menendez stays in, I think Kim wins. If not, this is the start of a real race. Very smart move by him to announce quickly.

edit: This would also be a fascinating rise for someone who was written off as DOA until redistricting. I still think more likely at this point that Menendez does ultimately bow out and we have a real fight on our hands, but Kim would be both my preferred candidate (excepting fringe protest votes) and I think the most likely to win.

Yes this is what I began to suspect after he preempted the Governor's timed and coordinated response.  With Menendez having effectively lost the biggest Northern Lines yesterday, and now the Southern Lines thanks to Norcross today and Kim's incumbency, he has lost a hypothetical primary. Kim therefore has every incentive to move as fast as possible and become the locus for opposition and therefore the eventual consensus choice. Striking while the iron is hot ideally boxes out rivals to ensure a 1 v 1 victory.

However, if Menendez resigns soon, like the NJDP wants, this will just be the first of many as you say. It though probably forces Murphy to pick a placeholder candidate, unless he actually wants Kim.

[Oryxslayer]

Who do we think is in contention for Kim’s (now pretty safely Democratic) house seat?

Troy Singleton is probably the strongest contender as the highest-ranking Burlington County incumbent. He'd be able to win black votes in Hamilton and Lawrence as well.

Wayne DeAngelo could easily be the Mercer candidate with appeal to conservative Democrats in the other counties but is probably too comfortable in the legislature to run and would be an underdog against any Burlington-backed candidate based on numbers alone. Hamilton mayor Jeff Martin could also serve that role, though he's in a tough re-election fight.

Beyond that, you're looking at the parachuting celebrities, activist base and local electeds in Burlington. Andrea Katz, the Chesterfield party chair and current candidate for Assembly, is a name I'll throw out there. As far as parachuting celebrities, the party tried to get Ron Jaworski to run for Senate this year, and Carl Lewis ran way back but got scrapped because of signature disqualification.

I really don't know of any Democrats from the Monmouth portion of this district; that person would likely be from far-off Freehold and would struggle to get support in the rest of the district.

This article explores who might go for a open seat. Singleton and DeAngelo are mentioned,  as well as Jeff Martin.

However,  top of the list and with the picture on the header is Majority Whip Carol Murphy. I'm surprised you forgot her, especially since the author has a inside tip she is already gearing up despite the November elections. If the tip is correct,  it might very well thread together neatly everything that has happened today. The backroom timeline may have been Kim wanted to ensure Norcross support before he got fully in. And a way to do that is put a south jersey machine ally in line to succeed him. And that trade convinces Norcross to move this morning.

A few other Mercer names are thrown out: County Chair and East Windsor mayor Janice Mironov, and Marlboro's Jon Hornick.

Republican names listed include Bob Healey, Burlington County GOP chairman Sean Earlen, and Assemblymembers Brandon Umba  and Vicky Flynn. But all probably will pass on what's should be a loss, especially if it's Kim's name right above them.

[Oryxslayer]

Van Drew running would be less about him actually running to win and more a bombastic retirement from Congress which could lead into a cabinet role. (Trump loves him.) I bet Testa, a real rising star, encourages him.

Agree. But one has to wonder if current House maneuvers are pushing him to do such a retirement.  He was never the most ideologically loyal Democrat, but he still flipped parties after 20 years in the South Jersey machine. Seemingly cause Dems broke with what he saw as rational behavior when they impeached Trump. Now the GOP wishes to do the same to Biden, among other things that the Northeastern 2022 intake opposes and could sink. Leaving that chamber on his own platform could be a way of internally of making peace with all the things that could but seemingly aren't pulling him in opposite directions.

[Oryxslayer]

Ocean County Dem Chairman Wyatt Earp called for Menendez's resignation about a hour ago.

He joins Senator Fetterman, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Representative Adam Schiff, and Representative Madeleine Dean who also called for a resignation today but weren't previously mentioned in the thread. Their lack of immediate influence over the situation is likely why they went unmentioned until now.

[Oryxslayer]

People or groups who have called for Menendez's resignation this morning: Representative Don Beyer, Chris Christie (but says he won't run for the seat), Sussex County Chair Zoe Heath, and AOC. 

Senator Durbin today on the AM news circuit refused to talk about Menendez. Would not surprise me if the Senate is silent right now cause they want his vote until after all the debt related stuff is dealt with.

[Oryxslayer]

Swalwell, Spanberger, and Slotkin called for menendez to resign when presented with the question this afternoon.


Menendez has scheduled a Monday press conference (to probably plant his feet even harder).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1706048815466172559?t=gwv87EvokxSCvqg6LY_...

Solidarity!

[Oryxslayer]

And as predicted,  the press conference today is all defiance and Baghdad Bob style obfuscation. Right now he remains committed to the reelection attempt that will only result in embarrassment and pathetic moments cause of how far he fell.

Several of such moments may already be happening. The state party has stated they will kick him from their official candidate lists if he runs again. In practice this is what the ballot would look like in that scenario everywhere except maybe Hudson.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1706049876889329943?t=E8vFYW8ffI8p4e7GQm8R...

A second embarrassment to potentially come is if his son loses a primary challenge as well. Retirement in some capacity would put distance between the two.  But Menendez Sr imploding during a campaign would tie the sins of the father to the son via the ballot, even if the case isn't expanded to include Jr.

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1706326587631603843?t=SJwL3okhARN8RhZNBV5hc...

Additional searches today have suggested Speaker McCarthy,  and Representatives Moulton, Casten, Summer Lee, and Porter have also called for resignations.

One has to imagine,  or at least hope, there's a poll in the field right now that will reveal just how over it is for Menendez. Right now it's just vibes, which are not great indicators  

[Oryxslayer]

What are menendez's chances if he were to mount an off the line bid in the primary vs Andy Kim , with state party institutional support

1 v 1 vs Kim, who would have every Line and party support but maybe 2? Probably 0%. Reminder that Menendez had every Line and full support in 2018 vs a F-tier opponent, and only won by 62-38, losing areas where the machine is weakest. Without the party he's toast. Especially since it seems Kim cut some sort of deal for South Jersey machine support, so he'll be getting absurd margins from the region.

Though like I said, I would love to see a poll confirming the complete collapse. As some have speculated, if the collapse it total, then there is certainly room for North Jersey to put up their own candidate and not have any fear of Menendez winning.

[Oryxslayer]

Peter Welch becomes senator Number 3 to call for a resignation.

[Oryxslayer]

Two developments:

1: Pelosi just called for Menendez to resign. So expect a lot more condemnations from Democratic congressmen tomorrow. Reminder that the two were once close allies in the House before he ran for Senate.

2: i would take this to suggest Gottheimer won't be running unless Menendez is out. It also suggests either he wants to run statewide and is trying to get into the Hudson machine's good graces, or he really dislikes Kim. Reminder this follows him calling for a resignation, which however happened before Kim entered the race, so he still wants to play both sides by supporting the son.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1706452341400940763?t=OB4Da8rxu0jYQWic750cm...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705610661156299252

What are the chances that Norcross himself is gunning for this seat if and when Menendez steps down? And if he does run, what are the chances that he wins? Most of NJ's big politicians do tend to come from North Jersey, but he might be an exception, especially considering who his brother is...

Everything can change obviously, and I would prefer NJ posters to comment, but Norcross is more of a state rather than national political player. Case in point, right now he seems to be backing Kim through potentially a informal deal. One suspects this is partially cause South Jersey has a strong chance at a Senator for the first time in a generation - despite his waning power, partially cause it means NJ-03 is now open for a machine ally.

[Oryxslayer]

Peter Welch becomes senator Number 3 to call for a resignation.

Tester has observed what way the wind is blowing and has become the 3rd Senator to say Menendez should resign.

4th, but Welch didn't raise much noise so it's understandable.

[Oryxslayer]

This would be extremely stupid and tone deaf. If you want Menendez gone, you need to only have *one* opponent for him. Increasing the field will just make it more likely that he gets away with like 30% of the vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1706650644738633878

In theory this is all about the Northern Machines. If they want someone other than Kim, then we will see someone else jump in. If not, than no. And if you read the article, she isn't actively considering a run, people are just throwing out a name. Which suggests there are some people against Menendez but also don't want Kim.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1706659308023189697

And in theory this is all about NJ-03. She's supposedly preparing for a run immediately after reelection in November. Tory Singleton is also a rumored entrant, even though both are machine allies and come from the same county.

[Oryxslayer]

Bob!

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1706671648189866122

Updated Senator actions, in descending temporal order:

1. Fetterman
2. Sherrod Brown
3. Welch
4. Baldwin
5. Tester
6. Bob Casey
7. Elizabeth Warren
8. Rosen
9. Heinrich

There's a clear correlation between whose moving first. Also 5 of those came in the last few minutes, so something's happening.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NolanDMcCaskill/status/1706689162294739204?t=y2mjQEZ__ywOwxC...

[Oryxslayer]

Senator Bennet is #11, Klobuchar is #12, Mark Kelly #13. Also Shri Thanader.

[Oryxslayer]

Senator Bennet is #11, Klobuchar is #12, Mark Kelly #13,

IDK how Menendez survives this, you're going to have the entire caucus soon and probably Schumer then.

well, there’s one way….

https://twitter.com/sentomcotton/status/1706682272840130576?s=46

Will Menendez switch parties?

That door closed over the weekend, when the leader gave his base marching orders. The GOP just wants him to remain the 2024 nominee, so they can win a shock flip.