California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R) (user search)
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  California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R) (search mode)
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Author Topic: California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)  (Read 69383 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2024, 04:22:37 PM »

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

Nothing. People saw her as the favorite cause she would win round 2 in November VS Schiff through a Frankenstein coalition of assorted interests. I don't think we ever got a poll of her coming on top in Round 1. And that still could be the case if she makes it to round 2, she has the money to not be totally swamped by Schiff, and the reasons voters would favor her for their own reasons in a 1 v 1 are all still there.

What has changed is not on her. GOP voters can vote in the Blanket primary like anyone else and they now have a candidate with enough of a presence to congregate their votes. They also now have the likely voter screen, and pollsters expect a electorate with more GOP voters than usual - at least comparing normal primary turnout to a normal GE electorate. Which is sensible given the state of the two Presidential primaries, but it may end up a overcorrection given how much energy is focused on getting out Dem voters by the Senate primary campaigns, and how many Dem voters are gonna get ballots mailed to them without any effort on their part.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #26 on: February 16, 2024, 10:33:45 PM »

I mean in this case it's not preferred Republican, it's that she's in a race for second with a republican.  So pulling GOP votes from Garvey reduces his total and lowers the bar she must cross.

It's like what I noted above, Porter hasn't done anything wrong right now,  the GOP voters are just seemingly consolidating. Will this help disperse them? We can only wait and see.
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