Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Oryxslayer]

All of these groups participate in the labour market. Haredi participation is exceptionally low and if you deduct the faux jobs in their educational system male employment sinks to around 30%. there's nothing really like them

Sure, but it would be possible to change welfare policies to make this kind of behavior impossible, and I think Haredi society would persist. (There might be greater defections to mainstream society in that case -- it's already the case that in Israel many more Haredim leave Haredi Judaism than do in the United States, in my understanding. But the whole society would not go away). I think sustained exceptional fertility rates are a more interesting characteristic, and a more relevant one for the future of humanity -- not just Judaism or Israel -- than labor market non-participation, which wouldn't survive probably-eventually-inevitable anti-welfarist politics.

Also Labor market participation is higher in the US among the specific populations when compared to Israel, so there certainly is a case for nurture creating an environment  that allows this population to do what it wants all the time vs some of the time.



Additionally....


https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1645134880429277184?s=20

This is one of the more volatile pollsters, but that's still a big change which can't just be explained by samples. So is it just the court battles  and popular protest movement plus Gantz just doing well in a environment where security is in the news (for multiple reasons), or is there even more going on?

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously? After several defections (starting arguably with Bennett), and new attempts to create a Bibi-less Likud-style party, surely whoever is in Likud now is a die hard?

Not everyone. Bitan, Edelstein, I. Katz, Barkat, Danon, and others are not Bibi enthusiasts and are loyal to various extents with varying motivations. They won't form a breakaway faction (well Edelstein might leave but that's about it) though, only pressure Bibi from within.

As much as some of them dislike Bibi personally, they know he's on borrowed time. Bibi's demise has never been closer. Why portray yourself as a traitor with the post-Bibi era around the corner?

I think they're wrong in one key aspect: they all assume Likud is going to remain a single unified party and I think it will splinter.

I could see these people jumping ship, but only in one scenario: it becomes apparent Likud won't relevantly exist post-Bibi. If another grouping (Gantz & Sa'ar) starts becoming Likud except without the corruption, settlers, and fascist allies, then they could hop on over to try and curry favor with the new boss. But I think that possibility is still a ways off, and a sturdy opposition coalition remains the likely immediate successor to the current situation for now, with any such transformations being a ways down the road.

[Oryxslayer]

Israel's Druze are rioting over a proposed Golan Wind Farm.

[Oryxslayer]

Another triumph for Bibi if true.

Apparently, a draft ruling was leaked in which the Supreme Court overturns the "reasonableness law" with a 8-to-7 majority. Fun times indeed.

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1741869251554599297?t=i820hvXVBJ3w9rf90kj...

Reminder that there is a throughline from this reform, the Public and private reaction,  and then government policy in the leadup to October of last year. Another glorious success for Bibi.