Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[Oryxslayer]

Update from the main thread, unsurprisingly its quid pro quo as usual.

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-turkey-not-closing-door-sweden-finland-nato-entry-erdogan-advisor-says-2022-05-14/

And as predicted, Turkey's "no" is not actually a "no", if the price is right. And mainly aimed at Swedish entry, not Finland:

Turkey 'not closing door' to Sweden, Finland NATO entry, Erdogan advisor says.

Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations with the Nordic countries and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities especially in Stockholm, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.

"We are not closing the door. But we are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey," Erdogan's top foreign policy advisor Ibrahim Kalin says.

"What needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to...exist in those countries," Kalin said.

[Oryxslayer]

Will be interesting to see what happens in the French assembly- there are obviously surplus votes, but FI and RN might have a lot of no votes.

[Oryxslayer]

France has ratified. Against, depressingly, the opposition of FI and the communists. Might be time to change my username back...

So a lot of people weren't there - perhaps under the expectations of an easy pass - and RN were whipped for abstention whereas LFI went for a no vote. Everyone else went yes.

Once again, LFI are unsurprisingly preformists and amateurs compared to the rest of the parties - and especially RN who are actually filled with electoral amateurs. If you can whip your votes in a way that will look better in a few years when one checks a wikipedia chart and doesn't read the details...you did well politically.

[Oryxslayer]

Every single party and every single lawmaker in any NATO country that votes against admission of Sweden and Finland needs to be called out in the starkest terms. They're either Putin's arm or just useful idiots to the Kremlin.

The United States pays way more into NATO than it gets out of it. A vast majority of countries in NATO are refusing to raise the defense budgets up to 2% of GDP, despite pledging to do so earlier. Some people feel like NATO is a scam to the United States, and they just may be right.

NATO isn't a trade agreement lol, it's a mechanism to keep Europe peaceful and prosperous, which is a huge benefit to the US.

Is it worth dumping in billions upon billions of dollars into, when other countries have made it clear that they aren’t going to hold up their end of the bargain since they’re expecting the USA to foot the bill?

I’m not against NATO or Finland and Sweden joining it, but they’re legitimate concerns with the way NATO currently operates.

I said this several moths back in the Ukraine thread and I'll say it again here: the main reason for NATO's existence is America First. Without NATO, Europe would likely be under more pressure, more threats, and likely more conflicts like we saw in Ukraine - something that only happened cause it wasn't in NATO. But the US wouldn't sit ideally by as it's major trade and economic partners find themselves under threat. No - we would be spending a lot more and acting a lot more on the continent in this hypothetical environment. And we would probably be shouldering the brunt of reconstruction - like the Marshall plan before us - to both prevent China from coming in and to maintain the beneficial economic relationship. That's what is currently happening in Ukraine and will likely happen post-war. Peace means America can keep to herself, do her own thing, and get no care what happens across the ocean - America First.

So in truth, it is better suck up and pay the insurance. Cause in the end, said insurance will be cheaper than totaling the car or watching your house get burned down and having no hope of filing a claim.

[Oryxslayer]

What's Orban's beef with Sweden exactly? Erdogan's has been well documented but I wasn't clear that there were issues here too.

I think it's just postering in international politics to try and appease both his allies and his supporters. Orban doesn't want to be the last roadblock that gets NATO scorn, but also wants to be a hurdle and try to defend his skeptical position. So once Erdogan (or CHP if they get power in a few months) drop their reservations, he does as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Congrats to Finland!

Now, Sweden's application must be quickly approved. Hungary and Turkey need to stop playing around.

I suspect that won't happen until after the Turkish elections, but probably will no matter the outcome, albeit through different justifications. .

[Oryxslayer]

I have to imagine this'll help Marin's coalition in the election tomorrow as well given how popular NATO currently is in Finland?

I mean for a long time the mainstream-conservative NCP has led the polls cause they historically have been the (vindicated) pro-NATO party. Now across the campaign they trended downwards leading to what appears to be a close race, but passage ironically might benefit them not Marin.

[Oryxslayer]

I have to imagine this'll help Marin's coalition in the election tomorrow as well given how popular NATO currently is in Finland?

I mean for a long time the mainstream-conservative NCP has led the polls cause they historically have been the (vindicated) pro-NATO party. Now across the campaign they trended downwards leading to what appears to be a close race, but passage ironically might benefit them not Marin.

Aye. I haven’t been following this election that closely (been a hectic month, between domestic politics and IRL), but I keep hearing people suggest that Sauli Niinistö, President of Finland, is getting most of the credit for the NATO application. While he’s an independent now, he was a member of NCP until 2012.

Also, my impression is that the right-wing parties are fairly open to NATO bases on Finnish soil, while the left-wing parties are more skeptical. So while Marin helped progress the application, she’ll struggle to “own” the victory, given parties to her right are still more open to closer ties with the alliance.

Yeah, like it's not hard to draw the conclusion that the specific timing is an attempt to influence the election. But once one understands how Finnish factionalism works, it's hard to see what such influence is attempting to produce.  The Governor's will probably include both the NCP and SDP based on polls, so changing the leader only will change a few specific policy points - bases included - and whether Marin remains at the head of the SDP. I'm sure NATO hq wouldn't like seeing the far right Finns in government or leading the popular vote, but the NCP winning means there's a chance at that and they would have a better chance at winning if it had hypothetically not been approved right before the election. Which seems contradictory to the goals of both Orban and co and the overall alliance.

[Oryxslayer]

Anything actually happening regarding Sweden any time soon?

I mean the Turkish election is in a month. So things are unlikely to happen until then, but said vote might be the development you are inquiring about.

[Oryxslayer]

Is the opposition to the Sultan more likely to accept Sweden joining?

I've seen some commentary claiming as much, but what stands out as more important than the (low) potential for changing of the guard is that the election will have passed. This will mean that even if he is still in charge, Erdogan won't be leaning so hard into various forms of populism for campaigning purposes.

I mean polling points towards either a clear and definitive loss for the AKP - thanks to inflation,  overall economic woes, earthquake, etc - or a rigged result that is so obvious that it would prompt widespread unrest, condemnation,  and violence. 

[Oryxslayer]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

While Austria in the past had legitimate constitutional reasons to avoid membership, today those could easily change with a little effort. Its just the ultimate beneficiary of the Free Rider effect so why bother.

[Oryxslayer]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Technically not the only ones, but most others are non-starters. There are the various microstates, the Caucasus states + Kazakhstan (most forget these are all eligible for EU and NATO memberships), Malta and Cyprus.

I mean going down the list suggest that NATO right now is close to maximum potential size:

- Switzerland is never joining serious multi-country treaty groups with stipulations.

- The microstates all have no traditional foreign policy comparable to other countries. There is no point to membership in any military treaty when there essentially is no military.

- Kosovo, B&H, Georgia, Moldova, Cyprus, and especially Ukraine all seemingly have some significant desire for membership. They all though have territorial integrity/full sovereignty issues in certain capacities that would stall attempts at entry. Notably in Moldova there is some pollable desire for entrance via joining Romania, though that would still require resolving Transnistria. Azerbaijan might be in this group to if there was local desire.

- Serbia, Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan all remain aligned with Russia. Belarus would probably join in the event of government collapse and the opposition coming in.

- Austria as mentioned has constitutional provisions against such membership forced by the Soviets in order for them to accept post-WWII reunification. There was some desire to change this and follow Sweden and Finland in 2022, but the free rider phenomenon presently remains strong.

- Ireland was previously in many of the categories here. Ireland initially didn't want to support anything the British did during and after WWII. Then during the Cold War the British probably would have vetoed any hypothetical attempts at entry because of the Provisionals, even though support within the Republic was never wide or deep enough to get Sinn Fein politicians elected. Now, when there is renewed interest in NATO, Brexit has complicated Irish foreign policy. Additionally, Sinn Fein is now a powerful player in politics on the Island, and while this growth is in spite of rather than thanks to 32 County Nationalism, refusal to even talk with NATO remains a legacy position.


This leaves Malta, already an EU member, as the only county that probably could join NATO tomorrow without complications. However, it seems as if Malta's history with significant UK military presences has left a population who like the position of neutrality established in the middle of the Cold War. This hasn't stopped Malta from cooperating with NATO in the past decade. If Malta felt threatened, like Sweden and Finland in 2022 because of how Russia liked to violate their airspace and national waters, Malta's politicians would no doubt suddenly find support for changing past policy.

[Oryxslayer]

Just my opinion, however, Turkey should never be allowed into the EU.

I don't view Turkey as a "European" country (it really isn't. It's mostly in West Asia/the Middle East) and Turkey is not a trustworthy "ally".

Also, f**k Erdogan.

Is Cyprus a European country? Is Ukraine? Are Georgia and Armenia?

The only way to answer this question, in the same manner as membership in NATO, is to determine the opinions of the citizens and residents of said country.