2022 French legislatives

[Oryxslayer]

And just like that we get a seat estimate. This doesn't have any percentage figures because, well those don't exactly matter.



Looking back at the last cycle, it seems we will be getting one of these from every major outlet. Though looking at this 2017 data, I am skeptical of their accuracy when compared to the pre-round 1 models which seem to have been within the ballpark of the final results. Was it just hype, or an undershooting of more reliable LR+ older voters...

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I think in a bunch of seats there are various minor Left candidates that ran and won some votes so NUPES have some room to grow in the second round for some seats.  Also, NUPES's great hope for the second round has to be the mirror hope Len Pen had for the Prez second-round election.  Namely, Le Pen had to hope that the  Mélenchon vote was not a mostly Left-wing vote but an anti-system vote.  The vote share she got in the second round proved her hope was partially correct but not enough for her to win.  Now NUPES has to hope that the RN vote is not just a Right win vote but also an anti-system vote.  I suspect NUPES's hope will be partially realized and potentially deprive ENS of a majority.

Obviously seats are their own individual cases. In some places there are minor leftists which will offer NUPEs some votes, in others there arn't. In some places we can say confidently that RN voters who turn out will go for NUPES (think Nord) and in others for Ensemble (think south coast) in those matches. Just like there are geographies where Ensemble voters break for RN in their matchups with NUPES, or where Ensemble goes for NUPES over LR+. In the end though, all the constituency checking averaged out to something resembling a preference for ideological proximity. And that as what Melenchon voters did Presidentially in the end, going 42% to 13% for Macron based on exit poll estimates. Right now it would be safer to bet on large abstention among the majority rather than casting an aggressive anti-Macron vote in these situations, given that is what Le Pen endorsed and that is what voters tend to do in the runoffs.

In case you can't tell I am disappointed Harris did not include their transfer estimates in their model...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/athe_red/status/1536741212442574848?s=20&t=ptS7KNr1T_wpI...

We have in effect a sixth candidate that can be declared elected.

[Oryxslayer]

In Seine St Denis 4, the PCF dissident camdidate withdrew leaving only Soumya Bourouaha (official PCF-NUP candidate) in the race. Bourouaha was leading 36 to 21 last Sunday.

And so ends that tale.

[Oryxslayer]

Ifop's model. Their MOEs are doing a lot of work here since it's all but guaranteed the others hit the top end of Ifop's estimate given the first round in the overseas departments.

[Oryxslayer]

How many second rounds are Generation.s and Ecology Generation competing in, and are they likely to win any seats?

Generation.S was nominated by NUPES in 12 seats. They advanced in 10. I would say they are likely to win 4 seats at minimum.

Generation Ecology was nominated by NUPES in 9 seats. They advanced in 6. I would say they are likely to win 1 seat at minimum.

Does it really matter that much in practical terms whether Macron has just over or just below 289 seats given that 99.9999% of his policies are things LR would agree with and vote for?

I mean it's often forgotten today but LR is it's own political coalition. Whereas Macron's alliance reaches from the center and liberal left to the traditional conservative right, The LR alliance goes goes from overlapping with Ensemble to overlapping with Le Pen's alliance and even more with Zemmour's - the latter mainly in the south. Pécresse and Ciotti for example are in the same party.

That all said, it would be very funny if the main lasting effect of Melenchon's coalition is forcing LREM and LR into the merger rumored to have been explored in the leadup to round 1.

[Oryxslayer]

[Oryxslayer]

Elabe projection seems to have LR and RN doing reasonably well

This one looks very similar to my own one - will post tomorrow in case new info changes things - though I have mine at lower MOEs.

[Oryxslayer]

And Cluster 17. Perhaps the highest numbers for the non-major pillars, I don't think the parliamentary right even have the candidates qualified and in position to win their projected seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Will this legislature last full term if Ensemble fails to get absolute majority?

Given that such an election would be a referendum on the perpetually-unpopular office of the President, it's probably likely to last a full term. Arguably this is one of the factors behind the third cohabitiation. Barring a total surprise, Ensemble's lower bound is still close enough to the majority line to govern at least initially alone in a minority. Or alternatively there could be politiking with LR/UDI - up to and including the potential merger - given the first round results suggest a hard floor of about 45 which easily gives the majority. Or alternatively there is PS/EELV who each are probably getting 20ish seats, but that is less probable.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538192658975363073?s=20&t=Ox1v98PQV...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538192658975363073?s=20&t=Ox1v98PQV...

This doesn't look auspicious for Ensemble and suggests the NUPES vote is motivated.

I wouldn't read much into these personally, especially since there's 2 Ensemble, 0 NUPES-endorsed, and 1 unopposed (cause opponent withdrew) candidate in this set of 10 seats. I'm not projecting the overseas seats cause they are weird and parochial - we are all very certain Union Loyaliste will sweep New Caledonia, but thats not cause Macron backed them. More interesting would be the expat seats.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction basically comes down to this: who has the bigger universe of voters in a runoff situation? This includes both those that showed up to vote in round 1, and those who did not in some circumstances where the electorate may change between rounds. This is not a series of nationwide absolutes. Two similar runoffs in the north, south or a city could produce varying outcomes – to list three common examples. There are six common runoff situations, and each deserves a brief analysis.

An additional note also the NUPES alliance. Around 60% of NUPES runoffs have LFI candidates, and the remaining 40% are mostly held by the three other ‘large’ members of the pact. I believe there will be some variation in the approachability of the various parties. In some runoffs versus RN, and in specific places LR/UDI+, the lack of a LFI label will benefit in terms of transfers. In other areas a LFI label may consolidate the opposition more around Ensemble than if the candidate was from say the EELV. In other areas the uncompromising LFI candidate would be better. In the majority of circumstance though, this variation should matter little, but it deserves mention cause every seat is different.
 
Ensemble vs NUPES: The most common result has perhaps the most variance. Ensemble has many more potential runoff voters when examined in a broad universalist perspective. This itself is not absolute: the new data on marginal RN transfers has been incorporated, and usually there is some minor leftist party. Opposing them though is Ensemble, with the help of LR/UDI+ voters, who should be the most reliable in these low turnout contests. The Cluster 17 projection likely overestimating the Right, and LR/UDI+ outperforming their round 1 polling gives solid evidence to bet on this group in situations of uncertainty.

Even these though are far from absolute. Areas where RN voters are likely to be “LR but the first priority is our identity” are more likely to see abstention or a net Ensemble transfer when compared to northern areas that are feeling the economic crunch. How does one weight for secondary leftists: do we say they go NUPES cause of ideological closeness, or do we say they don’t cause these voters saw a viable NUPES candidate on their ballot and conscientiously said no to that option. In many seats that Ensemble needs they have to leapfrog NUPES from round 1, and while there is LR/UDI+ voters often there to allow this change, a slight change in turnout can flip results. This isn’t even mentioning R! voters who have the same divide as RN but to the nth degree, and localist parties who voters loyalties we can only guess at. In short, there are a lot of moving parts.
 
Ensemble vs RN: There are three categories of these seats. Northern seats that Le Pen won in round 2, Southern seats that Le Pen won, and seats that Le Pen did not win. The third category is most prominent and Ensemble is all but guaranteed to have the transfers to win in those situations. In many situations, upon analysis of last weeks results, we can even include a number of seats that Le Pen marginally won in round 2 in that third category.

Looking at the first two groups, there is a divergence. In the first, the Ensemble label is not beneficial.  We already have a data that suggests that transfers are incomplete and mixed. If RN had a large lead in round 1 in the northern seats, I often was unable to find the transfers to overcome this advantage. In the south, the distinctions between the RN and Ensemble are clearer. LR+ transfers are in my eyes less reliable, but NUPES transfers are more so.

Ensemble vs Parliamentary Right: There are only about 20 of these, so they are easier to analyze. We also have data from 2017. In many places where RN was strong in round 1 but did not advance, their voters went for LR/UDI+. Outside of Alpes-Maritime these situations have vanished with the growth of RN, so the past can only help so much. There are the seats where the Right won large pluralities in round 1 and are all but locks for round 2. There are the seats where the Right advanced but lacks transfers. Finally, there are the seats where the two parties are politically indistinguishable from the perspective of the Left, and therefore will likely lead to low-turnout runoffs.

NUPES vs RN: For simplicities sake, I will keep using the three generalized divisions used in the Ensemble vs RN section, because they still apply for different reasons. NUPES is much more likely to win Northern runoffs when compared to Ensemble. Partially this is because they mainly advanced against RN in favorable turf, partially because the distinctions between RN and their potential transfer sources are clearer here, and partially because the left has a better brand with the electorate. There are still some guaranteed losses, like the in the Douai-Lens region of Pas-de-Calais, but the situation is on average better for NUPES.

The same cannot be said of the other two regions. The situation in my eyes is worst for NUPES when voters of the Right and Ensemble can see little differences between the populists – aka LFI vs RN runoffs outside cities. While NUPES should win every runoff with RN in seats Macron won, including some conservative ones like Yonne 1, there are a few places where you have to squint and wonder if it will be closer than expected.

In the coastal non-urban conservative South, the situation is reversed that of the north. NUPES needs to be in a good position after round 1, have a more approachable candidate, or else there is a good chance of loss. LR voters here historically will opt for the Far Right, especially versus the radical left, and Ensemble voters here seem likelier to abstain or divide if not given a reason to get behind NUPES. The urban south is a different story – there RN stands no chance against the Left majority.
 
NUPES vs Parliamentary Right: NUPES loses these, though it isn’t exactly their fault. Almost all of these runoffs are in and around AURA, and/or almost all had large LR/UDI+ pluralities in round 1. Its not hard to see that conservative consolidation in conservative areas behind the dominant candidate defeats the token opposition – especially if its LFI. The two most interesting seats in this category are the ones in St. Dennis, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the end if LFI wins them both.

Parliamentary Right vs RN: The Right wins almost every one of these. Ensemble voters see a clear distinction, and they’ll outnumber the abstaining or divided NUPES transfers to lock in a LR/UDI+ victory. Many of these runoffs had strong Right positions to begin with, making the wall even more insurmountable. The only situation where they may be vulnerable is where RN starts with a large round 1 plurality and voters see little distinction between the two runoff options.



With that all said, here’s the prediction, for all 550 seats not in an overseas territory. I dare not wade into that mess, because I’m not estimating the overseas departments in part. These totals also include the few aligned candidates, like Pancher in Meuse 1 for the Right, and Vojetta in Iberia for Ensemble.

Ensemble: 270 to 300 seats. Ensemble has the dominant position but many factors can influence large numbers of seats. Majority in doubt, but a strong minority will likely be good enough.

NUPES: 150 to 175 seats. Lacks transfers in many cases, and are in some situations held back by what makes them most appealing. Biggest upside is in cities. Overall, the NUPES alliance can’t be considered a failure for not achieving its lofty ambition of winning a majority. All four major members should have enough seats to form their own groups if the faction splits. The Left is stronger overall. LFI achieves their own goal of seizing the dominant position.

RN: 35 to 50 seats. High variance because there are a large number of seats where full consolidations blocks the far right, but said consolidation is unlikely – but not impossible – to occur. Much less then what I initially thought they could win before NUPES, but still decent given precedent. Seat total almost evenly divided between the North and the South.

Parliamentary Right / LR/UDI+: 55 to 65 seats. I feel like the MOE can actually be lower, but I’m not sure where exactly to put the lower bound. The Parliamentary right experienced something similar to the various Left Parties in 2017 where a general collapse wiped away all their backbenchers and all but the most entrenched. Those who advanced had a solid foundation personally, or in terms of their seats base partisanship. The first round filtered almost out all who stood a chance a losing, leaving just the best positioned. Some still will lose, but the Right has a high ceiling and low floor.

Unaligned Left or NUPES dissenters: 4 to 7 seats.

Regionalists: 3 to 5 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Stéphane Lenormand  won St Pierre et Miquelon.
1329 to 1310 votes according to the live coverage on St Pierre et Miquelon 1ére.

It's in keeping with the island having recent close elections. Also Lenormond would have won the exact number of votes he + Michel had, and Gaston 4 less than he + Lebailley. This is something that I questioned might happen in the runoff situation,  after the round 1 results a few pages back.





Elie Califer is additionally declared victor in Guadeloupe 4, since the other runoff candidate withdrew.

[Oryxslayer]

Tightish race in Guadalupe 3 - the one with the RN candidate.

Marcellin Nadeau is the apparent winner in Martinique 2.

Jean-Philippe Nilor is the winner in Martinique 4 vs the founder of the Martinique independence movement.

[Oryxslayer]

Jiovanny William apparent winner in Martinique 1. This means all Martinique Independence candidates were defeated by Péyi-A candidates.

Oliver Serva is the apparent winner in Guadalupe 1.

Justine Benin is the apparent loser, and by perhaps a 20-point margin, to Christian Baptiste in Guadalupe 2.

Max Mathiasin, MoDem dissident, is the apparent winner over RN in Guadalupe 3 by about a 6 point margin.

Johnny Hajjar (Martinique Progressive Party) wins Martinique 3.

[Oryxslayer]

Frantz Gumbs, the Ensemble candidate who almost got a majority in round 1, is projected to win Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy in a landslide of epic proportions, so he can be declared the winner.

And that's everything until the Polynesian territories and departments close in several hours. 

[Oryxslayer]

Bar charts:



https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538349057592156161?s=20&t=HahIswS1u...

[Oryxslayer]

The winner in Polynésie française 1 is only 21 year old.

Incredible win. Many of these colonial elections don't look especially parochial.

I mean, setting aside biases for a moment, most of these candidates didn't have a particular national alliance pre-election. They just said they would sit in NUPES cause they are left and NUPES is Left - if NUPES splits then they'll find a new faction to align with since their parties are too small for a viable voice. All 8 in Martinique said they would align with NUPES after round 1 for instance.

A lot of these winners are autonomists, sovereigntist, independists, or a reaction to those movements. Which should perhaps be expected after a pandemic sapped all tourism money, exposing faultlines that have been there for decades. The metropole politicians have never really cared about the islands besides a few pet issues that crop up, it just took there being an incumbent for these sections of voters to have someone to direct their feelings against at the ballot box. And the nationalists promise that such feelings can go away in the future - so why wouldn't you vote for them.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like in places like Guadeloupe and Martinique NUP ran multiple candidates and then just accept the winner into the NUP.  Is this like Japan where the LDP sometimes back several LDP candidates for a seat and retroactively nominates the winner under the rule of "if you win you are LDP"?  Is this where it is 'if you win you are NUP"?

Outside of Polynesia, NUPES barely endorsed. Here are the AmericaElects round 1 charts for Martinique and Guadeloupe, which are useful in this moment. If you look closely, you will see that NUPES barely had any endorsements before round 1 which would have allowed the candidates to wrap themselves in the national brand - same with Ensemble for that matter. But now post-election everyone is stating they will join the pact. It's just practical politics. You need to be part of a group of meaningful size to have any voice, so these politicians need to join a national block. They were elected against the incumbent regime so Ensemble is out, and most are left wing so the Right is out. Many in the past have caucused with the PS+ block for the same reasons. This is different from say Reunion where NUPES officially endorsed a slate of candidates that mostly advanced, some of which were from local parties.

In effect, NUPES isn't creating winners, but winners are choosing it afterwards cause it is the practical option. If NUPES collapses tomorrow, there will probably be some considerations over which of the potentially four left groups they would want to join.

[Oryxslayer]

Additionally, the results in Wallis and Futuna have not been mentioned yet. Both candidates stated their intention to caucus with Ensemble, similar to how the how the 8 Martinique candidates looked to NUPES, but I would categorize them both as localists. Mikaele Seo, the candidate of the local majority, won by 16 votes.

[Oryxslayer]

I thought Reunions polls closed a bit later?

Anyway, this is official NUPES candidate vs local leftist in the 5th.

https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1538542133719752705?s=20&t=2lsjUg2g3z...

Exit estimations put the conservative incumbent on top in the 3rd.

Estimates between the official NUPES and a local leftist in the 6th are close.

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbent Republican in Reunion 4 concedes to NUPES backed Emeline K/Bidi.

Reunion 7 is expected to be tight.

https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1538554879437852673?s=20&t=2lsjUg2g3z...

[Oryxslayer]

If there's a tie, what next? A rerun?

Recount requests were mentioned as possibilities in tight Wallis and Futuna, as well as St. Pierre & Miquelon. So those can happen. But be aware that bar chart is not a final count, it is essentially an exit poll but more localized.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the live coverage on the Reunion local paper, Perceval Gaillard has won.

Less has won, rather his opponent conceded.