2022 French legislatives

[Oryxslayer]

The only thing I have to add to the above is that despite everything and a lack of attention, their base vote is now strong enough to guarantee victories in quite a few seats - and guarantee victories for whomever advances alongside them in many others.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1533842721609289731?s=20

Surprisingly relevant to our discussion. Useless constituency poll is useless. You might expect the party leader to cruise to victory, but RN arn't a parliamentary driven party. This might be enough to elect her on round 1, but turnout would have to be above 50%, so odd are she goes to a easily won runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Unsurprising but interesting fact: Meyer Habib, the likudnik, won 75% of his votes in the two Israeli/West Bank consular constituencies, which accounted for just 30% of the votes cast in the constituency.

He won 72.7% in Jerusalem (including West Bank settlements) and 62.7% in the Israel. He finished third or worse in all other parts of the constituency.

Is he going to a runoff against Macron's candidate or both Macron's and the Left candidate?

Macronista only. If there was a three-way, you would have heard about it since turnout overseas is always too poor to allow for one. Theoretically LREM should win the seat, especially with the regional polarization, but they need good turnout next weekend among their transferred round2 voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Updates:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1534202113101905920?s=20&t=MVV2I4sVO...

Safe LREM seat is safe.

Potentially the final Harris Poll before R1. Changes since last week are effectively meaningless: non-NUPES left +1%, LREM -1%, LR +1%, DLF + 1%, RN -1%, R! -1%. However they move about 15 seats in the model from the LREM+ majority to NUPES, most to LFI.





Also, in what could very well be the last polls, Harris chooses...mostly uncompetitive Brittany for their regional poll. Neverminded that they haven't polled IDF yet and it is full of competitive seats... Anyway, Macron got 32.8% here in round 1, Le Pen 19.5%, and 31.65% for the combined four NUPES candidates. LREM is the only big piller holding their vote, perhaps because of all the incumbents. In 2017, LREM almost swept the region. One wonders if this will be repeated, just with the handful of LR seats being swapped for a handful of left wing seats.



IFOP also has very little change since last weeks poll, but their seat count has changed to move 20 seats from LREM to NUPES. Note that they had LREM below a majority previously, and remain the only modeler to suggest LREM (barely) misses the majority.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1534494798555529218?s=20&t=gMMijWeHq...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1534496893706948609?s=20&t=gMMijWeHq...

Final Ipsos model. Little change at all since first poll, and an unsurprisingly massive age gap that benefits LREM.

[Oryxslayer]

Thanks for adding all that, I was waiting until today so as to see if we got any "Belgian Fruit Cart Surveys" or things of that nature to add to the list.



Anyway, given that this is the first round, only a limited number of questions will be answered. If anyone wishes to do predictions, here are what I feel are the most interesting potential developments:

- How and who will be elected outright on the First Round? This requires not just >50% of votes, but >25% of the registered voters. So if turnout is 50%, then a simple majority is all that is necessary, but the lower the turnout, the more votes needed. 2017 was an insurgent election so there were only 4 such First Round victories, lower than previously. 2022 has a lot more LREM+ incumbents in places that should be safe, and similarly so with NUPES in Saint Dennis. However, there will always be some opposition, no matter the seat.

- In a similar vein will Melenchon and Le Pen win in Round 1? Melenchon should sweep his seat, but turnout in urban Marseilles is such that more than 50% is probably needed. Similarly, we have a grain of salt that suggests Le Pen is close to the majority threshold, but she also likely needs a bit more that 50% to lock up a First round victory.

- Number of Triangulaire or three-way contests. Remember that candidates need 12.5% of all registered voters, so in practice this means 25% or more of the overall vote. Its not just good enough for there to be three consolidated pillars. In 2017 there was only 1 Triangulaire and there should be more this time. However, not a overwhelming surge of them given that the votes will not match the first presidential vote 1:1, the most viable candidates in a seat will naturally attract a bit more voters than they should based on the national percentages, and the structural barriers outlined above.

- Who comes in first, NUPES or the Ensemble LREM+ Alliance? Polls suggest its a tossup, though it matters very little. You could say that NUPES outperforms like Melenchon did in round 1. However, NUPES lacks the momentum seen in the last week of that contest. Turnout will also be lower, and its safer to bet on the alliance who has more reliable voters than the one with more transient ones.

- What will be the approximate ratio of the runoffs? Or how many NUPES vs LREM+ in regards to NUPES vs RN and LREM+ vs RN. The former will be most common, but RN will get into the runoff in at least 100 seats, likely more.

- How many runoff candidates for parties outside the big three? LR+ is struggling hard, and will lose a lot of their incumbents. They will however be the main opposition to LREM+ in areas like Yvelines, so there may be a decent number of candidates, even if they are destined to lose. The minor parties, for their part, are mostly mostly focusing on specific target seats. 

- Similarly, will Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan advance? D-A is in Essonne, which is not friendly turf for what his politics represent anymore, but he is the incumbent. Zemmour meanwhile is likelier to win overall, but he needs to get into a 1 v 1 runoff and cannot go to a three-way vs LREM and RN.

- Will anyone prominent for one reason or another, like Valls last week, miss the runoff?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535754758601990144?s=20&t=a6dX5wC9G...

Anyway, back on topic, to preview the main event. I'm not informed enough about local politics to comment, but in 2017 the result was marginal, and if you supposedly add the blocks as defined together, you get another 50-50 runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Once again, don't have much to say other than Macronism holding up rather well in a overseas region. I would ignore the labels for the minors cause there are a lot of local parties that are aesthetically 'left' but whose supporters have other reasons for their vote, similar to some other Caribbean countries. Comparing to 2017 and the by-election though suggests a narrow runoff.



This ones even more localized.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean these islands are among the most traditionally Conservative overseas regions (>13% for Zemmour 👀) but this is still a massive surge for LREM+. Perhaps signals the bloodbath that is to come for LR+ on the mainland...

[Oryxslayer]

American Outre-Mer

Guayne 1
Yvane Goua (TV) 20.77%
Jean-Victor Castor (NUPES) 17.3%


Guyane 2
Lénaïck Adam (incumbent, LREM) 31,88%
Davy Rimane (NUPES) 21.3%


Guadaloupe 1
Olivier Serva (incumbent, ind, ex LREM) 43.44%
Dominique Biras (FRAPP) 15.02%

Guadaloupe 2
Justine Benin (incumbent, ENS) 31.31
Christian Baptiste (PPDG-NUPES) 26.78%
(there is a LFI candidate with 15%)

Guadaloupe 3
Rody Tolassy (RN) 20.09
Max Mathiasin (incumbent, MoDem) 16.93%

Guadaloupe 4
Elie Califer (NUPES) 38.61
Marie-Luce Penchard (GUSR-ENS) 19,88%

Martinique 1
Philippe Edmond-Mariette (MIM)  17,9%
Jiovanny William (Péyi-A),   14%

Martinique 2
Marcellin Nadeau (Péyi-A-NUPES)   27,6%
Justin Pamphile (MIM) 25,9%

Martinique 3
Johnny Hajjar (Parti Progressiste Martiniquais) 37%
Francis Carole (PALIMA) 18,9%

Martinique 4
Jean-Philippe Nilor (incumbent, Péyi-A-NUPES) 44,2%
Alfred Marie Jeanne ( Mouvement indépendantiste Martiniquai) 25,8%)


 Saint-Barthélemy et Saint-Martin
Frantz Gumbs (ENS) 47.1%
Daniel Gibbs (LR) 27.6%

Saint-Pierre et Miquelon
Stéphane Lenormand (UDC) 32,39%
 Olivier Gaston (NUPES) 29,59%

https://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/legislatives-dans-le-bassin-atlantique-la-gauche-en-force-aux-antilles-guyane-le-parti-presidentiel-evite-la-catastrophe-1293076.html

Bar Charts:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535957531939549186?s=20&t=W74GIiliu...

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535931814598086656?s=20&t=W74GIiliu...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1536001097420128257?s=20&t=1HV3RHfXt...

https://twitter.com/Interieur_Gouv/status/1536000381083344897?s=20&t=LnugQpg...


Turnout remains where we expected it to be going into the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Ipsos estimate for runoffs based on round 1 exits. Much more LR+ than in pre-election polls.

[Oryxslayer]

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that RN doesn't seem to have been overestimated in the polls then. They very much were in 2017.

If anything, it looks like they could end up underestimated as pollsters  apply traditional models for consolidation against them in round 2. If you go back to the original pages I noted that RN could very well hit 100 seats. Obviously NUPES consolidation has pushed that down, but looking around at the places that they should be dominating - they are, and usually are on top to advance. And there are a lot less NUPES-LREM+ runoffs that both probably desire. Obviously though they still have a impassible ceiling, but 35 seats as models estimate might be too low.

If I heard it right, Le Pen said she was elected with 55% of the votes in her constituency.

Depends upon if enough voters turned out if she avoids a runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Lassalle's former seat will be LREM+ - NUPES runoff.

RN total vote already exceeds FN first-round total vote in 2017

That'll come down. People really forget that the urban polls close later and their votes come therefore slower...

[Oryxslayer]

Zemmour officially out.

[Oryxslayer]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

So basically an overperformance for RN and LR? That is certainly not what I expected.

France has a massive counting bias in favor of smaller municipalities and "peripheral" areas. Now we're at 80% counted and still nothing has come in from Paris and the Petite Couronne. Until they start reporting, you can't really discuss the national results.

Agree ith both this and the post about it's meaningfulness. However, it even without the cities, we can expect based on the exits that LR overperformed. Just looking around it appears a lot of the Zemmour respondents from the previous polling were disappointed in the lack of viable candidates, and returned to the right.

[Oryxslayer]

Adrien Quatennens for LFI Gets over 50% in urban Lille but still goes to a runoff. Second candidate after Le Pen I have seen in this situation.

[Oryxslayer]

NUPES ahead in all of Seine Saint Denis districts and is in a great position to sweep them clean next week.

The most obvious of predictions. Without any left wing competitors, NUPES would get it all, we noted when the pact was signed how LFI got a lot of these seats which were locks. More interesting is the lack of first-round wins here, even with low turnout. You would anticipate 60% for them in some seats.

Also Dupont-Aignan tops the poll in his seat, and advances versus LFI, who'll probably defeat him.

[Oryxslayer]

Basic runoff situation map. Uses the @ElectionMapsUK  format which I think works better for these situations where seats have multiple winners. First place gets the seat colored, second (and third) get Dots. Much simpler that having a thousand different color hues.

Yellow is for Ensemble or LREM+, and lighter yellow is for aligned independents.
Red is for NUPES main parties.
Pink is for Left Independents and NUPES rebels.
Blue-Black is for RN, and a greyer hue is for Independents and minor Far Rightists.
Blue is LR+, and grey-blue is for right Independents.
Green is for regionalists or local parties, and I used it liberally in the overseas areas, so a lighter green is needed for local party v local party runoffs.

There are 8* (TY for correction, they were all on the map already...) triangulaires and 5 directly elected candidates as noted previously by others.

Looking solely at the mainland, where the simpler ideological blocks and their labels are applicable unlike overseas (this includes the regionalist Corsica), this is the shape of the runoff in the 535 seats:

- 406 Ensemble candidates advance, 1 who is directly elected, 8 who are in triangulaires.
- 370 NUPES candidates advance, 4 who are directly elected, 8 who are in triangulaires.
- 207 RN candidates advance, 5 who are in triangulaires, along with D-A in Essonne 8 and the rebel in Herault 6.
- 76 LR/UDI+ candidates advance, 2 who are in triangulaires, and 1 minor rightist.
- 11 NUPES dissidents, left independents, or minor left party candidates advance, 1 who is in a triangulaire.
- 1 regionalist.

So what is going on here? A lot of the seats where RN advanced, they are against Ensemble. Obviously Ensemble-NUPES is the dominant runoff. The traditional right got smoked as expected, but they should in many of the seats they actually advanced in thanks to anti-FN or anti-Left consolidation, depending on the region. And that is why Ensemble is in the dominant position. Cause NUPES is in two-pillar runoffs, and while they will win a solid chunk of them, their comparative lack of opportunities over the other parties hampers opportunity.

[Oryxslayer]

map

How many NUPES vs RN runoffs are there?

164 seats seem to be seats where Ensemble didn't advance (but no all of these are NUPES vs RN).

And what is the distribution in NUPES itself (how many EELV, how many PS, how many PCF and how many LFI).

Here is what I totaled for the mainland:

- 265 Ensemble vs NUPES
- 110 Ensemble vs RN
- 60 NUPES vs RN
- 20 Ensemble vs LR+
- 25 NUPES vs LR+
- 29 RN vs LR+
- 6 NUPES vs Minor Left
- 1 Ensemble vs Minor Left
- 3 RN vs Minor Left

- 8 Triangulaires
- 1 Ensemble vs Localist
- 1 NUPES vs Far Right Dissident
- 1 NUPES vs D-A
- 4 NUPES elected
- 1 Ensemble Elected

So theres a few issues for NUPES which should be expected given that this is a situation heavily structurally tiled towards giving the president power. Like I would tilt a lot of the NUPES - LR and LR - FN runoffs in favor of LR, just based on geography, results percentages, incumbency, runoff transfers, and other factors; but few of the LREM - LR runoffs. Similarly with the NUPES vs RN compared to LREM vs RN, though obviously RN will win a percentage of both categories, NUPES will still win a good chunk of their runoffs here, and LREM won't sweep their races with RN. But NUPES won't be winning any of the seats presently held by RN in the north where they advanced for example.

Overall, if Ensemble lacks a majority I would look to RN doing better then all modeled outcomes, since normalization has allowed them to win runoffs. 140-160 seats for NUPES should be baked in and unless they surge hard, its the other parties who have the most potential for variance.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it reasonable to assume that the ENS-NUP runoffs would tilt ENS given that LR+ votes will lean heavily in favor of ENS?

That category is fairly broad, befitting the situation in half the seats. In includes those seats such as Saint Dennis 6 where NUPES got over 50% but not enough turnout, seats like Aveyron 1 where Ensemble has al but already locked it up, and everything in between. Realistically though, barring a unseen surge, a lot - but not all - of the marginals should fall to Ensemble. Obviously this differs seat by seat, but usually the situation is what many expected when NUPES was formed. The left unites their transfers to get into a position for runoffs, but then Ensemble gets the lions share of the exhausted votes from round 1, since there is no more Left votes to win over to NUPES.

I think there is a good chance that LR and friends do reasonably well out of their run-offs, but which still shouldn't hide the absolute pasting that they have received.

There is also something of a big question mark on exactly how RN voters will behave in the second round NUPES - Ensemble run offs. Polling typically points to them splitting fairly evenly. There will likely be some pretty heavy abstention, but more to the point, as there have been so few historical instances of these sorts of run offs there's a bigger chance of the polling being off. That and the potential different behaviours between the "liberal" souther far right voters and the "social" northern ones.

Agreed on the second point. I'm currently mentally treating it as 50-25-25 Abstain-Ens-NUPES, though obviously this differs seat by seat.

The first point though is interesting cause we actually have data from 2017 to pull from that backs up the idea of LR+ avoiding a total wipeout. We can basically split the seats where they advanced into two different blocks: those in the North and far South which are against or under the influence of an eliminated RN, and those in and around AURA. The former group in 2017 went largely for LR+, either because the other parties easily outnumber RN and fall behind LR+, or RN goes to LR+ to stop the candidate opposing LR - usually LREM/Ensemble. The second group of seats is historically conservative which is why LR+ held a lot of them in 2017. They had enough of a base to outvote the insurgents. This appears to be the same again, often with significant percentages and additionally in a position to get Ensemble transfers in LR+ vs NUPES runoffs given the regions political traditions. However, both forces are likely weaker this time around given the declining position of LR/UDI+, so some seats will not behave by precedent, despite it appearing that they should.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it possible to get a breakdown of the 11 NUPES dissidents? Ie are they mostly ex-Socialist Party MP’s or something else?

There's at least one PCF dissident, in the 11th district of Seine-Saint-Denis. Not sure if there are others.

Edit: There's another PCF dissident in the 4th district of SSD. I think it's marked incorrectly on the map above, however. A PCF candidate supported by NUPES placed first, while the dissident candidate placed second. The map shows an outright win for a NUPES dissident.

Fixed. That was accidently added by a misclick I missed when I updated the map to fix a few errors that I missed last night. That's the Taibi - Bourouha seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Valérie Rabault, PS incumbent in Tarn-et-Garonne-2. Leads with 33.3%, runoff against RN (22.4%). President of the PS group in the National Assembly since 2018, claims to have refused the prime ministership in May. Officially labelled as NUPES by the MOI, but basically dis-endorsed by LFI and the PCF, who refused to support her. She did not use the NUPES logo in her campaign lit or posters, but did use the V in her first name stylized exactly like the V in the NUPES logo...

Do you know why this happened? Everything I can find seems paywalled.

She's also the first seat, not the second, and will almost certainly win given the potential lack of and RN transfers in this part of the world.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

As for NUPES' results, they're good in the current context but not particularly amazing. Mélenchon, Jadot, Roussel and Hidalgo won 30.6% in April, and the NUPES result alone is comparable to the 2017 totals, which, obviously, weren't particularly good. I think a lot of people have just gotten so used to the left being hopelessly divided and losing badly in nearly every election in the past 5+ years that the result of the united left looks more amazing than it really is - although, well, at least in terms of seats, their result will be amazing compared to what the left has become accustomed to since 2015, and particularly compared to 2017 (when the left lost seats they had no business losing and stupidly missed out on many runoffs because they all insisted on running alone), and definitely a good base from which to rebuild the left into a winning force (I'm not betting on that though).

Obviously if we get some round 2 polling or projection data in the coming days then this take will change, but right now it's highly likely that NUPES round 1 success is a mirage - precisely because their overall percentages haven't moved much since 2017 and 2022 round 1. In a lot of their runoffs I have looked at almost all potential sources of transfers are exhausted because they consolidated in round 1 to get so many candidates through. That's not a bad thing, the total left-aligned parties should more than double their seat count from 2017, but that doesn't achieve any loftier ambitions besides rescuing each faction from obscurity. Comparatively, the outcome should end up resembling 2017 in a way, just with NUPES and LR+ trading places.

The only real way this changes, barring dramatic changes in the electorate, is if NUPES can win over a comparatively significantly greater share of RN voters in their runoffs with Ensemble. Realistically we have no data on this situation beyond the polls from the presidential round 1 which had multiple hypnotical runoffs, and these are mere apples that we can try to compare to current oranges. Usually Macron was defeating Melenchon by the same amount or slightly greater than he was defeating Le Pen. Which suggests RN voters choose Macron marginally, likely with a large abstention rate similar to what Melenchon voters actually did in Round 2. Obviously there will be geographical variance to the RN electorate, abstention, and some voters of all eliminated parties will just go for non-Ensemble to "stick it to Macron." Unless there is a secret reserve of NUPES voters they will just find themselves losing a lot of runoffs as the elderly and/or wealthy Round 1 LR+ voters (with nothing better to do) show up and cast yellow ballots against the left.