NM-01 Special Election Prediction and Margin

[Oryxslayer]

Closer to Biden's 2020 result than Haaland's.

[Oryxslayer]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

GOP can't compete in Urban districts, no matter their history, ditto Dems in White rural ones. News at 11.

Also zero outside money from the big national spenders on either side of the isle, and with Dems dominating the larger local ones, the GOP lacked the funds to make it closer. Somewhat similar story to Dems in TX-06 really.

[Oryxslayer]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

GOP can't compete in Urban districts, no matter their history, ditto Dems in White rural ones. News at 11.

I recall a may 2017 white rural district in kansas that was remarkably close.

I didn't realize that Wichita was rural