2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky

[Oryxslayer]

If you can draw a district entirely within 1 county, you have to under the KY constitution.  This means there has to be an all Jefferson County district as it has substantially more than 1 CD worth of population.  It is impossible to draw an all Jefferson County Trump district.

Problem is that Kentucky will probably lose a seat in the next census.

2020? No, the next time KY is slated to lose a seat is 2030.

[Oryxslayer]

I can't see why -there are so few minorities (especially African-Americans) living in Kentucky that it is hard to see the need to call in the VRA cavalry.  At least not when compared with other southern states with higher concentrations.  

Kentucky has court rulings against splitting counties too much.

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law. A Beshear victory is a 100% guarantee that the 3rd will still exist in some form next cycle, even as her sister in TN-05 gets quad-cut.

[Oryxslayer]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

[Oryxslayer]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/wlkymark/status/1476319440312614912?s=21

We're expecting 5-1 based on the previous info, but any guesses on the contours of the others? Will they change significantly to ensure Lexington is DOA, or will they change minimally to because incumbents wanted their old seats? I'm thinking a mix, with the 6th going more southwards into the eternally Red rurals and the 1st dropping the arm's northern appendage for a consistent geographic core.

Legislatively I expect them to go Hog wild and for the only D seats to be in the cities - but this was inevitable and the map only sped up the process.

[Oryxslayer]

So I'm guessing all they really do is shore up KY-6.

Correct

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1478494785556078593?s=20

Weird way to make KY-06 redder, rather than have it go to the south, but ok.

[Oryxslayer]

The KY Pubs seem absolutely terrified of the state's capital. Maybe they mixed it up with Wisconsin's state capital after too a few too many bourbon shots.

Perhaps the legislature and their staff desire to be represented by James Comer, or vice versa.

[Oryxslayer]

That’s ridiculous. Franklin County is 50/50, tiny, and trending nowhere.

It's the third most Democratic county and votes blue if the race isn't a blowout. Yanking it out and putting in some more GOP bluegrass counties is one way, albeit the weirdest way, to move KY-06 off the map.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1478594965504724993?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1483926115181895688?s=20

Beshear Veto's, but given it only takes a simple majority to override said veto, this is just perfunctory,

[Oryxslayer]

This case concerns the maps for the Kentucky House of Representatives and the congressional districts:

Ky. Democrats argue in court that redistricting maps all but 'guarantee' GOP wins

Apparently Beshear and the Kentucky Democrats are suing. Don't really get the point of these shenanigans. The Democrats have no chance of winning the state legislature or KY-06 in the foreseeable future, so all that really matters is KY-03. Disaster averted I guess, and we have nothing to lose from a court drawn map, but still.

Today is the day when the lawsuit against some of Kentucky's maps is heard before the State Supreme Court. This is arguably an ideal example of how activist groups have taken control of redistricting litigation from the national groups and federal bodies. Locals and their backers don't exactly care if the outcomes won't dramatically now favor the Democrats, they want fair maps.

The case concerns the State House and Congressional plans, referred to as HB2 and SB3 by the parties if you are reading the court documents. The Senate Plan is not sued, despite being IMO the most egregious of the maps, perhaps because of how the plaintiffs structure their arguments. There are two lines of attack. There first is similar to other cases in State Courts and revolves around Free and Fair Elections. The second though stems from guidelines in § 33 of the Constitution, and concerns county splits and district nesting.

The desired sum of the two arguments seems to be a ruling enforcing minimal-split nesting (like TX SH, WV congress) and within those groups creating maps that respect community boundaries and enable political competitiveness. The former would still be relevant to Congress: it would clear up the ambiguity that spanned the 2022 discussion thread and de facto guarantee KY-03 remains permanently nested in Jefferson County.

The trial court heard the case last year. It found that the maps in question were indisputably and proven partisan gerrymanders. It however did not believe the court had the authority under the KY Constitution to strike them down and order remaps. The Kentucky Supreme Court then elevated the appeal from the Courts of Appeals on the plaintiffs request.

Given official nonpartisanship, I'm personally uncertain if liberals still have the majority in the Supreme Court. There certainly are more than what you would expect with district-based elections to the body.

[Oryxslayer]

High court affirms the previous decision .