Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

The key to understanding AMLO is that he idealizes the late one-party PRI era and its ideological non-commitments, policies, and prosperity under a veneer of revolutionary socialism.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the left will blow it, communist and DC are already at it with the infighting. Plus Kast speech last night was much better than Boric's

So how bad will a Kast presidency be?

The real question would be what would happen when the now truly rivalrous sources of legitimacy - the Constitutional Convention and the Presidency - clash. Authoritarianism thrives in uncertain tussles over legitimacy that lack electoral rules, and Kast won't accept anything that neuters him politically.  

[Oryxslayer]

Raul Figueroa, Minister of Education said that the government shouldn't be neutral and that they should support Kast.

Yes! do that! It will be great.

I can't believe Pinera govt ministers support Boric! Cause he would be the only beneficiary.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1471501333249150983?s=20

Apparently there is a leaked 50-50 poll D:

[Oryxslayer]

What explains Valparaiso's fairly substantial shift to the left? Is it more due to demographic changes within the city or a shift in voting patterns?

I genuinely don't know. Valparaíso has a hippie and bohemian vibe (but waaaaaay past its prime), son in that sense the FA could be a better fit there, but I'm just speculating. A "curious" thing is that Valparaíso and Santiago are 2 areas where the left should have done well before 1973, being urban and industrial, but where they didn't find success. And now, they are trending hard towards its side while the north keeps slipping.

I would note that the city of Valparaíso was one of only 3 places in the county where Sanchez finished first in 2017 - and one of the two others was Rapa Nui.

[Oryxslayer]

In this page they are uploading the consolidated overseas vote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT0Z9MXi7G5YFcb-Q_Q8b3afMIQAZm82dQv23rqMiKcsVu3Bw0CTv-oh1MlFQAe3e9cnQULSBDfkjoX/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

The numbers are not necessarily final, for example in Sweden I'm sure there is just one polling place reported

Looks pretty strong. How do the numbers from this round for the the largest countries (Spain, Germany, etc.) compare with the first round?

Every single large country I have checked Boric is higher than the combined left in the 1st round and Kast doesn't reach Kast+Sichel.

Which is good, but Peru shows that voter movements among the expat community can not carry over to the mainland's trends.  Looking at the spreadsheet, it seems that a lot of the Boric growth comes down to higher voter turnout than in round one, which could be good/bad depending on mainland voter behavior.

[Oryxslayer]

In this page they are uploading the consolidated overseas vote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT0Z9MXi7G5YFcb-Q_Q8b3afMIQAZm82dQv23rqMiKcsVu3Bw0CTv-oh1MlFQAe3e9cnQULSBDfkjoX/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

The numbers are not necessarily final, for example in Sweden I'm sure there is just one polling place reported

Looks pretty strong. How do the numbers from this round for the the largest countries (Spain, Germany, etc.) compare with the first round?

In Germany, first round Kast: 12.4%, Sichel 9.1%. Kast in the second round 16.7%
France: First round, Kast 6.9%, Sichel 7.7%, Kast in second round 10.5%
Spain, first round Kast 14.3%, Sichel, 11.3%, Kast in second round 20.9%
UK first round Kast 16.8%, Sichel 18.3%, Kast second round 30.7%

So, Kast doesnt get the entire Sichel vote in Europe and not even half of it in Germany and France

But that's not the whole story. In most countries Kast is getting all of the combined right vote from R1, or over 90% of it. Turnout it appears is just up and benefiting Boric, but this pushes down the percentage. We don't know if this will carry over to the mainland..yet.

[Oryxslayer]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Yep, good to see that Boric is winning, but I think it's appropriate to understand that the constitutional convention will decide the fate of Boric's programs. In some ways, one might consider this election a test of the conventions legitimacy - one that succeeded - since Kast would no doubt have done everything and more to shut it down.

[Oryxslayer]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

It’s all South America minus only Ecuador and Uruguay this time. But Uruguay is a place where the right doesn’t look as crazy like in other places.

Colombia and Brazil are shifting in 2022 as well. Pink tide from 00s will feel like a small thing because that happened with less countries.

Don’t forget Mexico is also currently left as well (it wasn’t in 00s, neither Colombia).

I realllly hate this sort of analysis - don't take what I am about to say personally, its more just a rant  at this type of analysis in general. It seemingly ignores whatever is going on in each country and the circumstances behand that election and reduces things to an strict comparison that ignores the intricacies of local political coalitions, while also cherry-picking the results one likes and doesn't like. The only time this really made sense recently was in the original pink tide because most Latin American political systems were starting from the same position. Authoritarian and often right-leaning governments - or their unstable immediate successors - all turned to the previous opposition which was usually socialist. But not always, even back then there was cherry-picking when it came to Mexico throwing off it's authoritarian regime and the Fujimori state among others.

Four years ago I could have said a Blue tide was rolling over the region. But this would be ignoring Mexico (which finally appears to be moving from a 2.5 to a 2 alliance system) and Ecuador, among others.

Today if one is the make the comparison, then they throwing aside Ecuador, Argentina (The Peronists only held on last month cause the Class of seats up already had a strong JxC lean, but even then we are handwaving aside Argentina's 'unique' political alliances), and whatever is going on in El Salvador - among others.

And if there is a shared circumstance, it is the pendulum of power swinging naturally from on side to the other. Pinera greatest strength in 2017 and Boric's in 2021 was the people's opinion of the incumbent government. Same with AMLO in 2018. Likely the same with Lula or whomever else in Brazil, and they would be following a president who rose to power by exploiting dissatisfaction with his corrupt predecessor. Peru is basically stuck in a cycle of unpopularity and corruption leading to presidential impeachments, with no sign that Castillo's future is any different. In this sense, it is only pure coincidence that in any particular moment the multitude of pendulums are all momentarily in the same position, before all going the separate and individual ways. 

[Oryxslayer]

However, there have been several polls that show Reject ahead or even with Approve for the exit plebiscite, caused by particularly rough weeks at the convention.

I'm not too worried yet, approve will likely rebound when the final text is redacted, but it should make some members of the convention think about their behavior and things proposed in the commissions (From the independents I'm not exactly surprised, but PC and especially FA have insisted way too much in some of their pet issues).

Boric also isn't having much of a honeymoon, with his approval failing fairly quickly. This is because the government hasn't made many announcements so far and the agenda has focused on the violence in Araucanía (where government attempts at dialogue have fallen flat) and inflation, plus another attempt at a withdrawal of pension funds. Boric today did some announcements such as a freeze on public transport fares and upping the minimum wage, but the problem IMO is that he is combining the economic orthodoxy of the Concertación with the wokeism /ñuñoismo of FA and that is a toxic combination long term.

Personally, as long as the new constitution is approved, Boric can run away on a helicopter for all I care, but the plebiscite is going to be a bitter battle that needs a not so unpopular government.

I can't quite remember if I mentioned it in my posts here during the presidential campaign, but I certainly had the worry that the constitution was in danger no matter which of the runoff candidates succeeded. Kast would obviously strongarm the convention as best he could, and then probably do something authoritarian and prevent any of its good changes. Boric on the other hand, would suffer as the approval referendum is transformed into a referendum on him and his government, something that he would eventually lose via a fickle electorate. Essentially similar to many polls in many other countries -  the ones that immediately come to mind is the FARC deal in Colombia and Renzi's attempted reforms in Italy. In may ways, the first referendums here were just a poll on Pinera's failed approach to the protest and his generally low approvals.

If this does happen, the progressive civic reformers will be victims of their own success, like how so many other fellow travelers in many other counties win a large mandate from the people, proceed to gradually lose support of various factions that originally backed their more nebulous and attractive vision as the majority starts looking at specifics, and eventually loses enough support that the opposing side freely have their way electorally or militarily - if an authoritarian regime.

[Oryxslayer]

I still don't buy the numbers against the Boric administration being that harsh - surely people's expectations didn't crash that badly? -, but... it's not an encouraging prospect right now.

This is the great failure of the Two-Round runoff system: the way it encourages people to view the parties and politicians means that it is incredibly easy to lose popular support, and a struggle to claw back any approval.

[Oryxslayer]

This referendum and Constitution seems to be following that famous motto: Everything changes, just for everything to stay the same.

I mean it didn't have to be this way. But once it became Boric v Kast this became the likeliest outcome. Kast would do something authoritarian and prevent it from going through. Boric would naturally see his approvals fall - like almost every national leader in a multiparty two-round runoff environment - and the referendum would fail to pass as it becomes a glorified opinion poll.

[Oryxslayer]

You know, I'm curious as to what will happen if (and, as seems likely according to polling, when) the proposed constitution is rejected in a few weeks. Sure, the 1980 document (with its various assorted amendments) will remain in force, but the 2020 plebiscite result makes me think that there is still some appetite for constitutional change even if it's not this document.

It would be unfortunate for supporters of change if the "Reject" result is taken to mean "carry on with absolutely no changes to the current document whatsoever".

I don't think anyone knows, which is what the conservatives are hoping for, since the old one is the incumbent and therefore default option if no other presents itself.  The Reject for Reformers certainly have no plan, which is why I suspect it is just a electoral safe house for those who don't want to go against their voters.

Which is perhaps a side effect of this process never entirely being about the complicated process of constitutional change. Do we really think that such a large percentage of the electorate wanted such changes that their tickets ended up pursuing.  Likely no. There however was such support based on opinion polls for giving Pinera the finger after the protests and incompetence,  any many who cast ballots probably did on that basis. Now voters are being asked to sign off on something they probably have not read, in an environment full of conflicting (miss)information.  Do we really think that such a large percentage disagrees with what is offered,  if they understood what will be before them? Likely no, once again.  But once again opinion polls say that the electorate is in favor of giving their president the finger,  and the fact he supports Yes is all the information needed.

[Oryxslayer]

So what exactly happens assuming reject wins? Is there not another chance at changing the constitution in the short term really?

Boric plans to call a new convention, but this would require a new election of delegates, perhaps under different rules. If this were to occur, the conservatives would likely control a significant number of votes  compared to the present body, given the change in political climate and in President, and the grassroots lists would likely suffer compared to the national one. So any product of this convention would be notably different, and perhaps more acceptable, then the current document.

[Oryxslayer]

First results from Magallanes show Reject ahead so yeah, is basically over

Sure those arn't the military bases?

[Oryxslayer]

First results from Magallanes show Reject ahead so yeah, is basically over

Sure those arn't the military bases?

No, they are from Punta Arenas downtown, though the most lopsided result appears to be from a high income area.

Well if they end up rejecting it overall then yeah its probably over, though I wonder if geography of Approve will be more "Santiago + Valparaiso vs the rest" when compared to previous presidential vote distributions. 2021 was already a divergence in favor of greater reform-oriented energy in the urban core.

[Oryxslayer]

First update from Serval. Approve narrowly ahead...but because of overseas. Reject leads 60-40 in Chile, its callable.

[Oryxslayer]

If things hold...well maybe it wasn't such a good idea for the Left to demand universal participation. If a voter chooses to abstain, they may have good reasons.

[Oryxslayer]

Reject leads in the initial count from Santiago in that drop, 62-37 of about 10K votes.

[Oryxslayer]

We're now up to almost 700K

63-37 reject, 65-35 in Chile. Those are converging.


It's stupid how close this is matching Boric's approval, just like how the initial referendum matched Pinera's.

[Oryxslayer]

What a f**king disgrace. Chile had a chance at real, structural change and they took a piss on it because "muh I don't like the incumbent". Italy 2016 all over again, I guess (except even worse because the problems with the Chilean constitution are worse).

Given the landslide it lost by, I realy doubt it was just that. Reading through what Info I could find, it does seem that the left feeling embolded decided to put every single one of their wish-lists onto the counstition hoping to enshrine it in perpetuity.

That is true. In doing so they set up a partisan confrontation between the Left, who would desire want everything there, and the Right, who would oppose everything. Which means that the chief leaders of the partisan debate would define that partisan confrontation.

Boric is obviously the leader of the Approve/Left side. But who leads the Reject/Right? There is no second president. It is the midterm situation where the opposition is an amorphous blob that you can fill with whatever you imagine is best. Only when that opposition is personified by a single opposition person or institution seizes the spotlight does it then become a confrontation of wills similar to a normal national contest. And that is when you can overcome a 35% approval rating.

[Oryxslayer]

So... yeah. This isn't over, the process continues, and it is likely that the country could well be voting on a different new text in 2023. Hopefully the same mistakes - and there were many - will not be made this time.

Some thoughts on the idea of restarting the process:

The Conservative parties will almost certainly win a third of the seats this time, likely a bit more than that given the change in climate from the last poll. An optimist would say that this would prevent any isolating radical proposals from getting adopted, a pessimist would say that this will ruin the bodies effectiveness.

The local/civic/activist lists like Pueblo would suffer even under the old rules - once again just because of the change in climate. These groups have now clearly defined their positions, which some former voters disagree with, and others will find redundant with Boric's endorsed alliance.

This sets up the convention in my eyes to go two ways: cooperative work towards a more reserved document, or combative and rambunctious partisanship that produces few results. Hopefully, both paths could be beneficial. The former will produce a new nonpartisan document that should be endorsed by all and approved by a wide margin, even if the text is not perfect. The latter will give Boric the opposing body he was lacking in this campaign, a body that allows himself to define himself against and create electoral contrasts. That will hopefully raise his approval and give him the capital to rescue the process and get some change passed.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, if there is to be future elections,  such as to the new constitutional assembly,  then it would be unwise to split discussion.