2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...

Maybe it's because of Harris County, TX but I'm not really impressed with NY's numbers given its population.

NY has been mail voting as well, but they are not telling us anything as fall as how many have already mailed ballots. Considering the GOP is using early-in-person more and the dems are utilizing mail ballots, there are likely a bunch of ballots in bureaucratic purgatory right now, invisible until next week.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

S O U L S T O T H E P O L L S

also

Hidalgo adds 2500 (140k total), Cameron adds 1400 (73k), and Webb adds 1000 (37k). Not too bad considering the dramatic slowdown in other parts of the state as well on Sunday. That puts Hidalgo over 80% of 2016 turnout, Cameron at 79%, and Webb at 65%.

I’d like to push Hidalgo and Cameron to over 100% by the end of Friday, and Webb to 90%.

Before doomers bitch about Webb, consider this is an all time record in EV for them and that 2/3 of votes in 2016 in that county came on Election day

This is why I hate wasserman's worrying about South Texas and the RGV. Despite the region's blue hue, it has a horrible voting rate. This is high turnout for the region, it just pails in comparison to the metros. Its also a poor, rural, high-minority area, and each of those things increases the numbers of E-Day voters and decreases the number of Early voters. Same thing with the Black belt.

[Oryxslayer]

Have the early vote totals influenced anyone's opinions on any states?

For me I think I'm more optimistic about North Carolina and Georgia.  Especially North Carolina.  We keep hearing about the urban and suburban areas experiencing epic growth there and the rural areas in population decline.  The raw numbers out of some of the democratic counties seem to be bearing that out.  If the urban and suburban areas trend left this election as they are suspected to this could be a double whammy against Republicans: higher margins + a lot more raw vote out of those counties.

Not at all, other than revealing that Texas voters know that they live in a tossup state. The GOP is going to get their vote out closer to and on E-Day, countering what Dems build up now. It'll come down to who did better during their favorable timeslots, which is only knowable after the votes are tabulated. Anything else is just tea leaves/astrology.

Of course, this is the thread with a schedule about when to gloat and worry, so I am probably not the norm.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1320834851226980352?s=20

All the suburbs know they are living in a swing state.

[Oryxslayer]

Haha, FL always makes me chuckle. Feels like every election, both sides argue the early vote is favorable to them and it always ends up about 50/50. Bottom line is its a very complex states with a lot of constituencies that don't all move in unison, so you can always find reasons to be optimistic / pessimistic no matter which side you're on.

Begone with your rationality, it's almost time to gloat about Texas!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1321520448602066945?s=20

This thread explains why Butler county PA is lagging hard behind every other PA county in VBM.

[Oryxslayer]

A relaxing tweet for your nerves:


https://twitter.com/fedjudges/status/1322607282169864194

Yeah casual reminder that if the 100% GOP state courts wouldn't touch this, neither will the feds start a new case, since fed courts can't overrule state courts. I'm sure if the GOP cried wolf before people voted then they would win, but not anymore.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322956956596928512?s=20

My thoughts on the M-D fear-splaining as well. Theres a lot of low-income minority Dems here, which means more E-Day voters. Meanwhile the GOP Hispanics are all reasonably situated, so they are more likely to vote early.