NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 03:28:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4  (Read 5424 times)
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


« on: October 26, 2020, 12:28:20 PM »

I'm pretty doubtful of the Hispanic crosstabs. The Hispanic vote in TX is difficult to poll. I have seen this movie before. I recall the 2018 polls of TX-23 especially, where Hurd was supposedly safe, and I remember looking at the NYT live polling and seeing how difficult it was to get a sample. Things didn't turn out that way, and likewise did not in other Congressional district/Senate polls in Texas.




That said, I don't believe in analyzing crosstabs or unskewing. People just have to understand that Dems consistently outperform their polls in the SW, we just are only used to it in NV because that is the state polled repeatedly for 20 years. The only way to correct for this is to poll in Spanish (preferably using Latinos rather than Anglos with training or Bots) and run your poll 24 hours a day to capture menial workers - two things that cost exponentially more than desirable.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 11 queries.