The midwest might just snap back to Democrats this year. If Biden's leading in double-digits in MI+MI+PA, he's also leading in double-digits (or near) in WI, leading modestly in IA and OH, and he's cut down Trump's margins in MO+IN by several points.
I think the story of this election is going to be the suburban backlash against Trump. Last time it was all the county swings to Trump, but we're going to see similar numbers of counties flipping blue this cycle.
I'm really wondering whether Waukesha County surprises us or not at this point.
It won't. Ozaukee might though if Biden ends up somewhere between Obama '12 and Obama '08 in Wisconsin. Less dem votes in the northwoods, more in the SW and Milwalkee suburbs.
