2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Oryxslayer]

First map before the committee is a punt to a Special Master.

Committee Maps will be posted here - they is seemingly an implied large number to be voted on -  as they come up on the livestream.

[Oryxslayer]

The map labeled "COI" is revealed to be the map from chair Representative Pringle. It is also a punt to a special master.

[Oryxslayer]

Second map up is labeled AKC, from the public submissions. Seemingly Would pass court scruitny.



Third map up is "Whole Jefferson," this is a longshot attempt at 7-0 and would be a punt as well. This one came from the web.



4th Map is Singleton Congressional, this map was seen at previous hearings because Singleton is the plaintiff in the secondary suit on racial gerrymandering which remains in lower court. This group of plaintiffs loves near-enoug to whole counties, so this was probably the best they could do for 2 access seats under those rules.

[Oryxslayer]

5th map is labeled "Russel Split" and is similar to Pringle's.



6th map is the much previously discussed Milligan plaintiffs map. They have done the RPV for their map. Would likely sail through the court if somehow approved. Plaintiff statement attached that reminds the committee that the court will do their own thing if the state fails two create two districts that allow for minority candidates to win representation.

[Oryxslayer]

7th Map is 'CLC' Plan (it was revealed at last meeting the CLC dislike association with this map). This is also from the Singleton Racial Gerrymandering plaintiffs who want whole counties when possible.



8th map is "Hatcher" proposed by AA a member during the regular session and supposedly modified after critique in the previous meeting. This is the type of map which would fail a racial gerrymandering suit. There are maps like this presently in varies states at lower levels of government, legacies of when desperate African Americans and Republicans teamed up against white southern Dems, but they attract much less attention then congressional maps.



9th Is a map that is more comparable to the Copium twitter "access districts" that would actually elect Republicans than the Chair's somewhat similar punt to a special master,

[Oryxslayer]

The map labeled "COI" is revealed to be the map from chair Representative Pringle. It is also a punt to a special master.

Reapportionment Committee gives favorable recommendation to Chairs map on party line. So, who do we think will be the Master appointed in a month: Persily perhaps based on his work in Georgia?

[Oryxslayer]

The map is a joke and quite clearly doesn't satisfy the court's demand

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1680973825058455555

Sadly almost everywhere this happens and states surrender their first attempt back to the courts. A real weakness of the American system comparatively is parties inability in many different capacities to sit down with a member and say "You are the weakest link" and sacrifice or chastise them to better the whole. In this situation that would be ensuring their membership get their ideal seats while observing the order, rather than letting the dice roll on potential incumbent pairings or loss of desirable features like airports or wealthy donor neighborhoods.

But that's why special masters exist.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AlaValues/status/1680918072230572033

So here's the likely road going forward:

Barring any major surprises, Pringle's map will likely be railroaded to the governor and the special session gaveled out well before the 21st.

Plaintiffs will make their complaints well known, likely with RPV and election results data, before August.

Lower Court reconvenes August 14th, and given their previous order to the state, probably will call for a Special Master rather than have a remedial map ready.

Given the desirability of avoiding Purcell - which'll become relevant in late December - new map will probably appear before the end of October. Since Special Master's charge pricey fees by the Hour, most states in recent years have given them short worktimes, though who knows.

Master Map likely will purposefully resolve the Singleton gerrymandering suit by not cutting sizable and contiguous localities and a maximum 6-7 county cuts. At which point it's implementation will resolve all remaining challenges to the Congressional Lines.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AlaValues/status/1680918072230572033

Master Map likely will purposefully resolve the Singleton gerrymandering suit by not cutting sizable and contiguous localities and a maximum 6-7 county cuts. At which point it's implementation will resolve all remaining challenges to the Congressional Lines.

Can you do this while keeping the Montgomery seat at least Biden +15 and the Birminghmam seat at least 45% black? Seems very tricky.

"Nyvins" map is actually a fairly good example of such a plan. Though since the a special master can throw everything up in the air, changes to the 5th that allow one to ripple-effect into keeping Tuscaloosa whole and keeping the 6th within the Birmingham market potential make such a plan neater.

[Oryxslayer]

Play stupid games win stupid prizes.

It seems like strategically, the AL GOP should've made a map a light D or even tossup mostly rural black belt seat they would hope shifts right long term. There's ways they could've gotten to at least 46% black while keeping the seat very winnable for them. Basically make a map as favorable as possible that might have a fighting chance at a legal challenge

Instead, any court map is likely to be a pretty solid 5-2 map with the 2 seats being majority black or close to it.

That kind of district would likely not stand and end up in another round of court challenges. You *can* draw a district just like that in southern Georgia, for example, but republicans didn’t try cause the VRA doesn’t work that way.

Perpetual reminder that section 2 of the VRA is not a order to draw majority African American districts,  but to draw districts that can reliability elect said candidates. Which is why court scrutiny never has yet OKed a 50% but Trump+1 style map, but has approved 40% districts in Northern states.

I'm fairly sure the weakest map the plaintiffs wouldn't have raised a fuss about and see the state squander this first chance is weirdly their own plan.

[Oryxslayer]

Perpetual reminder that section 2 of the VRA is not a order to draw majority African American districts,  but to draw districts that can reliability elect said candidates. Which is why court scrutiny never has yet OKed a 50% but Trump+1 style map, but has approved 40% districts in Northern states.

I'm fairly sure the weakest map the plaintiffs wouldn't have raised a fuss about and see the state squander this first chance is weirdly their own plan.

Wouldn't it be more precise to say that the intention is to draw districts that can reliably elect candidates of choice? The example that comes to mind is TN-09. Memphis is clearly protected by Section 2, but I don't think the VRA has any issue with the black majority choosing a white Jew to be its Member of Congress. In fact, I vaguely remember a pretty anti-Semitic campaign against him sometime early in his tenure that went down in flames. In any event, my point is that it's clear that Steven Cohen is the individual that the black majority of TN-09 has chosen.

I also have to note that once again, after all the complaints about the left attacking the courts, it is those on the right that are ignoring orders.

Yes, candidate of choice would be the better term. My mistake. In the south that is often another Person of Color, but not always. In other areas cross-community shared interests often lead to candidates of choice not being from the expected dominant demographic. Sri Thanadar was the candidate of choice by plurality in 2022 for example, thanks to his prior base as a state Legislator in Detroit, though we have yet to see if that stands in a potential future head-to-head. Tlaib meanwhile was not initially the candidate of choice for Black Voters and won through mainly her districts other groups until recently.

Candidate of choice is additionally a incredibly important term in Racial Gerrymandering for minority plaintiffs, because said candidate are more likely to not be from the dominant group. Establishing racially polarized voting exists within the community in favor of said candidate is therefore a key part of said suits.

[Oryxslayer]

I feel like these should just be posted here for posterity's sake, when we end up here again in 4-6 weeks, and some people are wondering why:

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the State Senate surprisingly passed its own map even though the House passed Pringle's. I say surprising because this was the first map shown off in committee on Monday, and was not advanced by the GOP senators there as a secondary motion. They voted to recommend Pringle's, so I still suspect that wins out of the two, but if it doesn't,  the Special Master punt becomes even more obvious.

If they do get into heated debate, it will be very funny since it's all performance for their internal factions and not going to matter. It will be even funnier if neither chamber votes up the others map and the special session has no products.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1681799385636655106?t=vjj4k0WKMPlZwXBPD...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/s0phistry/status/1681840087519182848?t=rzYhkuR3L_UaHGFrUAJW7...

Oh here's another funny thing. If one respects the city's boundaries as they stand today, does that count as a locality chop since the borders are set to expand? This occurred apparently cause Mobile was taking steps to punish free riders on city services in suburban areas. This will make mobile the second largest city in the state, and gets slightly Whiter and less Dem favoring. Also will require redrawing the precincts (census blocks as well) even without a redistricting lol.

[Oryxslayer]

Perpetual reminder that section 2 of the VRA is not a order to draw majority African American districts,  but to draw districts that can reliability elect said candidates. Which is why court scrutiny never has yet OKed a 50% but Trump+1 style map, but has approved 40% districts in Northern states.

I'm fairly sure the weakest map the plaintiffs wouldn't have raised a fuss about and see the state squander this first chance is weirdly their own plan.

Wouldn't it be more precise to say that the intention is to draw districts that can reliably elect candidates of choice? The example that comes to mind is TN-09. Memphis is clearly protected by Section 2, but I don't think the VRA has any issue with the black majority choosing a white Jew to be its Member of Congress. In fact, I vaguely remember a pretty anti-Semitic campaign against him sometime early in his tenure that went down in flames. Anyway, my point is that it's clear that Steven Cohen is the individual that the black majority of TN-09 has chosen.

I also have to note that once again, after all the complaints about the left attacking the courts, it is those on the right that are ignoring orders.

The rule of thumb that I use, is that the CD needs to be reliably Dem, with a majority of the voters in a Dem primary being black. If enough whites will vote for a black, the VRA does not apply at all. In almost all places now, white Dems will be open to voting for a minority person.


One thing the Pubs won't do is draw a reliably Dem Jefferson County CD, which is what neutral redistrcting principles would demand. No, they want such a CD to suck up a lot of rural black counties, so that the second CD is not reliably Dem.

They also want to cut Jefferson cause Hoover, Vestavia Hills, and Mountain Brook are all desirable turf. The cynic says the reason certain Dems were pushing for a district with all of Jefferson is cause they saw an opportunity to seize them without suffering too many partisan consequences. I wouldn't be surprised if the special master cuts Jefferson and puts the suburbs with Shelby out of COI reasons - several of them including Hoover cross the county line - meaning the most compact option is all of Tuscaloosa + majority of Jefferson.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/erindavisnews/status/1682440552627810304?t=1yPBEgUojuftCgV8N...


Here's the map that came out of conference. Let's see if it passes the chambers.

Beyond it being a true punt to court to seize authority, similar to the Senate's map rather than Pringle's, the real surprise is how much changes happen to the northern republican districts.  Including district 5, which wasn't touched in previous plans and seemingly would only be under a special master.

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

I thought participating in this thread would have taught people that a performing district for the candidate of choice  does not need to be over 50% for the single specific minority group, and it varies based on the turnout and rpv in a region, but here we are.

[Oryxslayer]

So…… is this just some weird way of them saying "we want a court drawn map"? Because it sure looks that way right now

Yes. Thats been the discussion/expectation here for several pages now. Basically they have proven themselves better than the VA Senate and GA House who gaveled out without even doing anything in 2016 and 2003/4 respectively, but analogous to numerous other legislatures across the decades. As before, prove your loyalty to those currently elected and national figures, then blame the courts for the inevitable.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1683567944188436482?t=QQYCuLeLc1CODgoXwL4...


Court soliciting names in advance so remedial mapping goes quickly. Said mapper also would not be the master in their own right, like in some situations,  but a partner to the already decided master - as is done in other situations.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1684577543721295872?t=GnEhv9LuuO9PaVfRoayg1A&am...

So all will be finalized by the end of August ideally.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CERVASJ/status/1685307851961487360?t=tDHJzvrwLdVzQ9-grFO6bg&...


Plaintiff formal complaint against Alabamas actions, ahead of the scheduled court hearing to approve,  or as is suggested by past history,  reject the states attempts and pass the ball to their master and his mapper. Plaintiffs point back to their 10 remedial maps that satisfy the courts earlier findings and opinion in their complaint, maps agreed to by the Supreme Court.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1686719886779699200?t=eOCsz5VfEPzKJRhhaNbidA&am...


https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1686722917143359489?t=XShhE6CUjQ-icwUsxn32wA&am...

Master incoming

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1689040992903593984?t=qFlUUOwd1MyzZACCC...

Court Master now has a lawyer and a mapper, in addition to other state assistants.

[Oryxslayer]

Was the functionally identical 2000 map also racist?  It's demographics are functionally identical.  And it was written by Democrats.

Or did Democrats become unelectable in the 2nd and 5th because politics became nationalized?

Whether or not Democrats are only pursuing legal action now because it is only now in their self-interest to do so has no bearing on whether the maps themselves are or were illegal/racist or not.

This.

But there also is important context. Alabamas 7th was initially drawn in the context of a different era. Horrible electoral participation among Rural African Americans often necessitated districts today that today would be laughed away as packs. The 2020 census additionally found that the states African American population is increasingly urban,  something that makes a second district easier to draw, especially with growing White crossover among urban residents.

However,  the biggest piece of context is the changed legal landscape.  In 2011 Alabama's maps had to pass preclearance from the Obama administration, which they did. Very hard to argue against after that.  Perhaps if Eric Holder knew the VRA preclearence formula would be tossed soon, or that politically the Southern White vote was going to be bedrock GOP for at least a generation,  he would have more actively went against such maps. But such are hypothetical situations.

In contrast to pre-2010, 2020s lawsuits are solely led by activist civil rights groups. They are looking at the situation as it is now, with the present masses of data. Which is why there are so many lawsuits nationwide,  cause these groups can cast wide nets. And they really only care about outcomes for minorities,  not partisanship.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/erindavisnews/status/1691099797405765632?t=kqkNgoLl4WU-gkMSH...

Court hearing has begun. This thread has live updates from the courtroom.