2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Oryxslayer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

[Oryxslayer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Implicit Rule 1 of gerrymandering is satisfying incumbents. This rule is so powerful it often sees parties give up on the maximum possible partisan map in exchange for satisfying their incumbents, be it via district partisanship, district race, or district shape. If someone needs to get cut, then you start with the person lacking tenure or state-level allies. This is what happened in Louisiana in 2010. Now, if someone from the rest of the state has made their plans known to the state GOP and wants to run statewide in 2022, that changes the math. For now though every GOP incumbent is not close to getting aged out and districts 1/2 will have the lowest tenure thanks to their new 2020 GOP reps. However, it is impossible to cut 1, so 2 is left with the short straw.

[Oryxslayer]

Preclearence is dead. Shelby got rid of 4(b) and until a Democratic Trifecta establishes new criteria to make section 5 work, no locality is under it's coverage. It's 5-1, 100%. It's also gonna be the 2nd getting cut, since everyone else has tenure.

I wouldn't be so sure about the 2nd getting cut. Why not the 6th or the 4th?

Palmer and especially Aderholt have much more seniority vs freshman in the 2nd

Palmer's only been there since 2015. He's in fact the least senior GOPer in the delegation (Roby has won almost twice as many House elections as him), and he represents a seat that borders all but 2 of the other CDs, and has a central location, to boot.

But Roby is retiring. And also I think her district bleeds population quite heavily?

Oh, she's retiring. I forgot about that.
In that case I agree completely.

Yes there are GOP runoffs for those seats right now to succeed Byrne and Roby, runoffs set to occur concurrent with the Senate runoff...sometime

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the map I made a year ago (so no T/C numbers) for Alabama.  Southern Speaker's map turned out similar. District 2 clearly gets the axe. The AA seat has even more AA voters than the present seat. Brooks gets more of the Huntsville media market and Aderholt gets more of his base in the NW corner. A NW oriented would have had the 2010 republicans scared about a 90s era dixiecratic revival, but now it is a clear GOP base thanks to the lock-step conversion of Greater Appalachia to the Republican party. Rogers would get the R-R incumbent primary, but there is more of his base in the new seat than the old 2nd.

[Oryxslayer]

I updated my Alabama map earlier for 2018 pop totals.



Changes since:

AL-02: R+18.9 -> R+18.8
AL03: R+28.3 -> R+28.8
AL05: R+25.3 -> R+25

[Oryxslayer]

My variation: https://davesredistricting.org/join/89eb86fc-e69b-4792-92ce-51307de75a10

50.1% & 50.6% BVAP; Biden +26 & Biden +14, respectively.

Would this be mandatory to do? I've always thought that splitting Mobile was a big no?

Yes, it is a big red line. The GOP would never willingly draw two AA seats. But it is the kind of red line easily crossed if a lawsuit forces two seats.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1451370751546863626?s=20

Does anyone think there will be a proposal with more than one AA seat? Signs point to hell no, but that's  what plaintiffs may argue. 

[Oryxslayer]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Of Course they did, what did you think they didn't?

[Oryxslayer]

Have they drawn a map where Doug Jones only won 1 district in 2017?

Actually, if AL-6 is truly 5 points more Democratic, I'd say it's pretty likely Jones won that in 2017.

Also, why is AL-7 so much less Democratic here?  Did it have to expand into Republican territory due to being underpopulated?

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1452709961503436806?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Updates anyone? Any chance of a push for a second Black district?

There's a second suit now from a group affiliated with Holder's organization, and this time it's a Section 2 suit.

[Oryxslayer]

Preliminary injunction has been placed on Alabama Congressional maps based on Section 2 violations in preparation for the full opinion.

[Oryxslayer]

Preliminary injunction has been placed on Alabama Congressional maps based on section 2.

What does this mean? Is there actually a chance for a second black seat?

A PI means that the prosecution has provided substantial evidence that their case is sound and has a likely chance at victory - in this case before a 2-1 Trump/Clinton Appointee three-judge panel - and therefore preserves the status quo and prevents any changes to the litigated evidence (use of maps) until a full opinion. The prosecution must provide substantial proof that not preserving the status quo would harm the case - for example the defendant bulldozing a property being fought over - and therefore a hold is placed. In redistricting cases, it is used to formally make it known that filing deadlines and primaries may need to be pushed and changes would need to be made fast do to the slow process of a opinion.

That said, the Elias team are basically expecting a victory now here based on their twitter.

[Oryxslayer]

One can read the full PI here. (edited using link accessible to all)

That said the key points are in the intro:

[Oryxslayer]

Wait does this actually mean we could get a 5-2 Alabama.

Possibly a huge upset if true, though I imagine this isn’t the end of legal litigation

Of course. This was a 3-0 decision before a 3 judge panel and if the defendants want to claim said panel was incorrect then they go straight to the Supremes. And they will appeal but very few appeals are actually met. Or course said Supreme court is partisan, but arguably this lower panel was even more so.

One can read the full PI here.

claims to need a Msft login; not sure if it's private or what. Which judges on the panel?

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1485787275216801795?s=20

Thats where I got the link, if you can't use it that's why I provided images.

I wonder if the the ALGOP try to make the second black district competitive or not. But this almost came out of nowhere.

If they do end up drawing it, I don't think they can - at least by the measures of the PI. the court references the RPV analysis provided by the prosecution (which found >50% needed in some areas) and the many hypothetical plans which therefore would give them clear baselines that would make any second seat probably at least as dem as GA-02. The Birmingham seat has some crossover votes so that stays safe even if the BVAP goes to 45%, and to get the Belt seat over 50% as ordered you basically need to link Mobile and Montgomery like in the hypothetical plans, which would be a really heavy lift for any other added GOP areas.

If it actually comes to it then freshman Jerry Carl probably just sees his seat get nuked and forced to run against Barry Moore.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait does this actually mean we could get a 5-2 Alabama.

Possibly a huge upset if true, though I imagine this isn’t the end of legal litigation

Notable how it was a uninaimous decision with 2 Trump judges siding with 2 black CDs. My guess is of this comes to fruition we end up with a Birmingham based CD that’s like 43% Black and a 50% black district that gets all the black communities outside Birmingham

Probably two possibilities, depending on whether the state legislature is willing to split Mobile or not and/or how much deference they give to keeping wealthy parts of the Birmingham metro out of a Democratic seat:

Version 1: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4063bb86-9185-4928-b286-0ed875493c96

No split Mobile, but wealthy Birmingham suburbs end up in a Birmingham-based Biden+10 seat (likely to be won by Terri Sewell, who lives in Birmingham). The plus for the Republicans, other than not splitting Mobile, is that the Birmingham seat is plausibly winnable for the Republicans though at D+5 it is a reach (but D-trending so might be a bit more R downballot; it likely voted narrowly for McCain in 2008 I think but D since then).

Version 2: https://davesredistricting.org/join/60232034-0043-4552-b614-5d4292268f37

Split Mobile, two safe Democratic black seats instead of one safe D and one likely D. The black population is higher in both black seats. Advantage for the Republicans is that they saved Shelby County from Birmingham but overall of course a worse result for them.

I think Version 1 is more likely but you never know, a lot may be determined by parochial concerns. They could also do something wacky that I haven't tried like run the Mobile seat up the west side of the state and try to fit the Dothan seat south of the Black Belt.

Several things: the PI noted one hypothetical map did not pair incumbents - meaning nuking Jerry Carl in the Mobile belt seat - which might be a semblance of advice/guidance/expectation given say Gary Palmer and Hoover; a different suit alleged AL previously cut counties to an extraordinary degree so the legislature's initial congressional map tried to minimize them; and finally Alabama has demonstrated already a preference to how they would do said seat after having previously drawn a second AA seat on the BOE map with 8 districts.

This is what I drew up in November after looking at all the various potential issues, and while seats certainly could be more compact, I liked it then cause it was essentially a least-change map that cut the same number of counties as the legislature's plan, drew the belt seat, and compacted AL-03. There are plenty of ways to swap stuff around but I'm almost certain this will be the general contours if 5-2 happens.

[Oryxslayer]

These are on page 60 of the court order -


It's the example maps provided by the plaintiffs.

Yep, like I noted, all the hypothetical maps do the belt Mobile-Montgomery seat. Now if the legislature does do a remap it likely resembles none of this in the other areas given their own priorities, but the M-M belt seat is all but the only option for AA seat 2.

[Oryxslayer]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

Even as it is, SC-06 needs to have some ugly lines to get the necessary black population.

Here's something that both tries to be understandable but also have two plurality AA seats. And while the Columbia seat is easy - the current SC-06 is really ugly mainly cause it has to pack too metros - the new belt seat is worse. Unlike in LA where there are multiple options for another AA seat, NC where the courts are expected to shake things up, AL where there are a handful of options, and AR where there kinda is maybe one, SC really doesn't have a second seat that would make sense under Gingles.



Instead, SC would best be served by one AA seat in one of the two cities and an influence seat in the other, or swing seats in both and a belt AA seat - there's significant crossover whites in both Richland and Charleston after all - but that is even harder to sue for, if not impossible since the GOP are slightly unpacking SC-06's AA pop but still cracking the cities.

[Oryxslayer]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

And don't get how this ruling follows the precedent of Gingles if it requires a district with mobile.
There was 1 least split map that did have 2 black opportunity seats but neither fulfilled the Gingles test.

And yet it has been legal in the state of Alabama for 11 years now, just not on the congressional map. These are the current and new Board of Education district maps. This is how you get a second AA seat in Alabama, and its not anymore strange than GA-02 and it's inclusion of Macon in a southwestern seat. To that end the 2000-2010 BOE maps did not put Mobile in the belt seat, but then had to in 2010 because of population decline.

[Oryxslayer]

Question: say AL has two black seats drawn in 2020. In 2030, if the state drops to six seats, does it lose one of those black seats?

Yes. If we were basing it purely on pop change, AL-07 would have been the seat that got cut if the state lost a seat, but of course that wouldn't happen. Separating Birmingham and the Belt - which are going into two different directions in terms of population change - makes it likely the belt seat would be axed if the state went down to six seats.

As it is for example the neighboring GA-02 needed to take in almost 100K people given its relative stagnation and potential decline compared to the states good growth.

[Oryxslayer]

Like say a compact AL seat is drawn centering on Birmingham.
In the vein of this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/774885fd-3f86-444a-91f0-06e9c9ef8b83
Would this count as a black-accessable seat for VRA purposes and thus be protected?

I mean that seat fails the court order given that it does not approach 50% BVAP, though as shown there is a measurable number of crossover voters in Birmingham so that threshold need not be hit on the dot and can be lower. But the percentage would need to be higher, which means going SW towards the edges of the belt.

As far as performing goes, Jefferson would need to get bluer before one could probably argue with reliable evidence that the number of crossover whites ensures that the Black-dominated primary candidate will reliably win. It's the same situation in Duval FL right now - you can get compact dem seats, but as of now the evidence isn't concrete enough for that to be the preferable of the presented alternatives.

[Oryxslayer]

Let’s say by some miracle this decision stood. Would such a rational be applied to other southern high African American states with GOP gerrymanders? How many seats could that net Dems?

At most, 2. LA and NC (and the NC map is already in front of courts).

Also GA, but given the cases currently brought look at Atlanta and the potential there for a fourth AA and therefore fifth dem seat, and not the extremely polarized rural regions, it is a separate set of circumstances. The priors for the south remain as they were: MS 3-1 is solid, NC is going to get changed by the Dem supremes, GA Atlanta districts are in litigation, and LA has a good potential to go 4-2.

[Oryxslayer]

The state's appeal asking for higher court authority has been now been filed.

[Oryxslayer]

If SCOTUS upholds the decision that most likely intimidates Louisiana Republicans into allowing a second black district too, which would be amazing.

Unlike AL, you can't draw two "compact" 50% BVAP CD's in LA, so no. Gingles does not trigger the drawing of a second black performing CD in LA.

Wrong. You can.

So it would appear as to the 50% element of the test, and we do have racially polarized voting, so that just leaves the compact element to litigate.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bfa1863-ed2e-466e-9d9f-90b35e656962

You can still make it to 50% without going all the way to Shreveport, by making use of Winnfield, Ruston, and Monroe. That might be a bit more agreeable by compactness standards by virtue of not stretching across so much of the width of the state.

It's also advisable to ditch the easternmost parts of New Orleans, which are far less Black than the city as a whole and would also make the 1st road-contiguous if included in that seat.

Yeah, he's trying to gaslight yah. Those two seats need not be tentacles: they can be sensible seats that follow the Red and Mississippi rivers and the pattern of settlement therein. And I just threw this together quickly, it can be made better. Some don't consider the Red River seat compact, even though it makes sense given human geography.

Now is this needed? Nope. The New Orleans seat can be performing with a much lower BVAP, probably closer to the low 40s as long as it still has the plurality. And if compacted, the second AA seat has infinitely more options for potential configurations, some that don't go into north Lousiana.

[Oryxslayer]

It's funny reading through this thread and seeing everyone being deadset on either a 5-2 happening or not happening.

The reality is it's prolly a tossup right now, and depends upon what SCOTUS wants to do with it, though it def isn't a shoe-in case either way.

There's been a lot of focus on other Southern states with GOP maps, but I wonder what this precedent would do to existing Dem maps?  It would seem to force a Hispanic CVAP performing district in Las Vegas assuming one can be drawn?  

First, there is a GOP suit to this nature right now in NV. Second, while a Hispanic CVAP congressional seat is impossible - a lot of the population is intermingled with north Las Vegas AAs or South suburban Whites - you can almost certainly draw a coalition seat and make it so the Whites in said coalition seat are rural GOP republicans excluded from the D primary process. The Dems in fact will argue that this is what they did with CD4, even though it is just above 50% White by CVAP.

[Oryxslayer]

Federal judges won't stay ruling against Alabama congressional map as drafted

As expected. This is essentially a perfunctory move before the appeal can be sent to the Supremes.